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Who the financial crisis is really about.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Who the financial crisis is really about.

Unread postby joeltrout » Thu 02 Oct 2008, 11:03:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', '
')Why don't you explain it to him ass-hole.


Obviously you haven't read through the entire thread.

Please read before you speak. :razz:

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Re: Who the financial crisis is really about.

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 02 Oct 2008, 11:25:14

Some large scale projects have very long time horizons. It might be years before beginning such a project starting at the drawing board until they finally sell anything to start paying down their accumulated debts nevermind making a return on their investment. So they need bridge loans to pay all the costs up until such time. Think power plants.

Some manufacturing also takes a long time between conception and completion. Think Boeing or Airbus. They cannot run their expenses out of pocket. At least not until they start selling planes on a regular basis. But even then they will have peaks and troughs in customer demand. At times like now they may even have customers cancelling existing orders.

If a project has a useful economic life of, say, 20 or 30 years then it makes financial sense to match the repayment of debt to the economic life of the facility. It might not make too much sense to pay for power plant upfront when it will be generating revenue for many years. So there are a lot of productive uses for credit. It is not all just about consumer consumption.

As madpaddler said, working capital is as important to a business as machines and labor.
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Re: Who the financial crisis is really about.

Unread postby Buggy » Thu 02 Oct 2008, 12:00:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'S')ome large scale projects have very long time horizons. It might be years before beginning such a project starting at the drawing board until they finally sell anything to start paying down their accumulated debts nevermind making a return on their investment. So they need bridge loans to pay all the costs up until such time. Think power plants.

Some manufacturing also takes a long time between conception and completion. Think Boeing or Airbus. They cannot run their expenses out of pocket. At least not until they start selling planes on a regular basis. But even then they will have peaks and troughs in customer demand. At times like now they may even have customers cancelling existing orders.

If a project has a useful economic life of, say, 20 or 30 years then it makes financial sense to match the repayment of debt to the economic life of the facility. It might not make too much sense to pay for power plant upfront when it will be generating revenue for many years. So there are a lot of productive uses for credit. It is not all just about consumer consumption.

As madpaddler said, working capital is as important to a business as machines and labor.


The headline on MSNBC right now is Bush saying the credit market is frozen. This is all making more sense to me now. It could get sticky.
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Re: Who the financial crisis is really about.

Unread postby joeltrout » Thu 02 Oct 2008, 12:24:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'S')ome large scale projects have very long time horizons. It might be years before beginning such a project starting at the drawing board until they finally sell anything to start paying down their accumulated debts nevermind making a return on their investment. So they need bridge loans to pay all the costs up until such time. Think power plants.


Also think oil development projects.

The Thunderhorse production facility alone cost of $1 Billion and no telling how many years of planning.

The world needs rigs to drill deep offshore but with falling oil prices, falling rig rates, and no credit it might be tough to build.

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Re: Who the financial crisis is really about.

Unread postby Buggy » Thu 02 Oct 2008, 12:36:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'S')ome large scale projects have very long time horizons. It might be years before beginning such a project starting at the drawing board until they finally sell anything to start paying down their accumulated debts nevermind making a return on their investment. So they need bridge loans to pay all the costs up until such time. Think power plants.


Also think oil development projects.

The Thunderhorse production facility alone cost of $1 Billion and no telling how many years of planning.

The world needs rigs to drill deep offshore but with falling oil prices, falling rig rates, and no credit it might be tough to build.

joeltrout


What!??!?!?! You mean gas prices aren't going to drop this week because congres let the ban on off shore drilling expire!?!?! I'm flabergasted. I guess I won't buy that Hummer on credit afterall.
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Re: Who the financial crisis is really about.

Unread postby joeltrout » Thu 02 Oct 2008, 12:48:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', '
')What!??!?!?! You mean gas prices aren't going to drop this week because congres let the ban on off shore drilling expire!?!?! I'm flabergasted. I guess I won't buy that Hummer on credit afterall.


I had to cover the basics so I don't get blamed for not explaining myself. :)

The real worry for me is the lack of funding that is needed to really ramp up the alternative energy industries. They are getting killed right now with oil prices falling, the natural gas bubble, and few investors willing to pile in billions like they were 6 months ago.

I think solar and wind will be forgotten by the average citizen 6 months from now. They will barely have enought to survive on and can't pay extra to subsidize the renewables, install them on their property or buy hybrid vehicles.

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