[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou are talking to ghosts.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou are talking to ghosts.

[Sys1]

Seems the first sector hardly hit is oil production itself.
Just after 2008 crash, oil price collapsed and non conventional oil sector was severly hit.
The consequences is that as soon as economy grows again, lack of investments prevent oil extraction to follow demand as easily as before,
meaning the next economic crash will be faster and harder.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'S')eems the first sector hardly hit is oil production itself.
Just after 2008 crash, oil price collapsed and non conventional oil sector was severly hit.
The consequences is that as soon as economy grows again, lack of investments prevent oil extraction to follow demand as easily as before,
meaning the next economic crash will be faster and harder.

[onlooker]

How about its NOT the Economy stupid. The Economy is a sub-sector of the Environment. The Environment destablization will wreck the whole Economy
"Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return?"
"The 1970s program had yielded a variety of scenarios, in some of which humanity manages to control production and population to live within planetary limits (described as Limits to Growth). Meadows contends that the model's sustainable pathways are no longer within reach because humanity has failed to act accordingly." https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... no-return/

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'H')ow about its NOT the Economy stupid. The Economy is a sub-sector of the Environment. The Environment destablization will wreck the whole Economy
"Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return?"
"The 1970s program had yielded a variety of scenarios, in some of which humanity manages to control production and population to live within planetary limits (described as Limits to Growth). Meadows contends that the model's sustainable pathways are no longer within reach because humanity has failed to act accordingly." https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... no-return/

[onlooker]

Outcast, first off the LTG study did project precisely that the unfolding collapse scenario would be cumulative and gradual until a breaking point was reached around this time. So it has NOT been proven wrong. Second, uncertainty works both ways, while a form of Collapse may happen only some decades hence, it can also happen quite soon. And why do you say with certainty that the "Apocalypse" is decades away. I thought you were claiming great uncertainty. Do you have some crystal ball nobody else has?
What should not be under dispute is that things have been getting steadily worse in terms of our impacts on the planet.

[onlooker]

Interesting Evil. I think yes we are increasingly in a precarious position economically. The Economy has over the last few years and decades become quite dysfunctional. It has become speculative as bubbles are created and then burst, it has become over reliant on lending/debt while neglecting solid long term investments. And it has become ever more unequal as economic benefits are accruing more and more to the top 1% and less to the normal person. Part of it is the focus on the stock market but also globalization as the entire globe is being subjected to downsizing as Corporations pit localities and people against each other to attain the least costs. Also, a special mention should be given to what I perceive as a horrid endemic corruption infecting the entire planet as money ends up perverting the political process and taking hegomony over all affairs concerning people. So the inequality in real power between the masses and those few who wield so much money is utterly insane. And thus, we see the desires and will of the few take precedence over that of the many. Finally, add to that real resource restraints starting to manifest and we have the making of a gigantic economic malaise that may go boom or may just descend steadily but inevitably affecting different regions and people unevenly and in more or less dramatic ways.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'I') never posted anything on this thread in the days running up to the Great Recession. I better step up. Now is my chance again. I'm going to latch onto a couple of themes already at work. Interest rates are rising. I think many corporations that have taken on too much debt are going to fail. The first of those will be the vanity inspired leveraged buyout schemes which rich people who get rich mostly by luck or who get so creative that they forget human feeling seem to favor.Which leads to the next crisis, government spending will fall dramatically.

[evilgenius]

The thread started in 2005. I assumed people would figure out I meant from now until about the same amount of time after 2005 before the Great Recession hit in 2007. I can remember people talking about what was happening in 2007 on CNBC, looking at the numbers on some show, and denying it was going on. The real hurt started to happen about 4-5 months after that. So, although these things are called sudden, they don't really happen suddenly. Incidentally, I don't mean that this go around will be that bad. I think it will be different. I think we are headed into a recession and it will clear out a lot of old school stuff. Sears is one of those vanity businesses. Essentially, any business that doesn't have enough money left over after paying its interest expenses to keep up with what is going on in the world will have trouble surviving. Toys 'r Us just had it happen to them. Oil will go up. That will hurt a lot of regular people.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'T')he thread started in 2005. I assumed people would figure out I meant from now until about the same amount of time after 2005 before the Great Recession hit in 2007. I can remember people talking about what was happening in 2007 on CNBC, looking at the numbers on some show, and denying it was going on. The real hurt started to happen about 4-5 months after that. So, although these things are called sudden, they don't really happen suddenly. Incidentally, I don't mean that this go around will be that bad. I think it will be different. I think we are headed into a recession and it will clear out a lot of old school stuff. Sears is one of those vanity businesses. Essentially, any business that doesn't have enough money left over after paying its interest expenses to keep up with what is going on in the world will have trouble surviving. Toys 'r Us just had it happen to them. Oil will go up. That will hurt a lot of regular people.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('baha', '
')
I think the travel industry will be hit first. But airlines are always suffering...

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('baha', '
')
I think the travel industry will be hit first. But airlines are always suffering...

[vtsnowedin]

I will suggest that the suburbs will be hit first and every industry that serves primarily the suburbs with them. Any place with a long automobile only commute will become prohibitively expensive to live in and property values will plummet. Inner cities and those suburbs served by rail public transport will gain. Zoning rules will have to change to allow mixed use so that jobs can be brought within walking distance of employee housing.

[Revi]

I think it will be like the situation that led up to the beginning of Ready Player One. Supposedly the only places that were viable were the outskirts of a few cities, so the trailer parks started building upwards. People lived in these crazy towers because the places that they came from were no longer possible. There are huge heaps of cars just outside of the stacks because it became impossible to sustain them. Here's a pic of the stacks:

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('baha', '
')The CEO of Ford is abandoning cars. They make the most money from SUVs and trucks so the dollar signs in their eyes are leading the way. This is a bad move. All your eggs in one basket is never good. All it will take is $4-5/gallon and they will be a has been. Hopefully they are working on EVs as well.

[evilgenius]

There is something about Ford that is interesting. I read something a couple of months ago about their self-driving car plans. Apparently, they are gearing up for a fleet based model. What they want to see is their ownership of the cars that come to pick people up on a piecemeal basis. They want to own the fleets that transport a city. I think that is Uber's eventual model as well. Whether either of these leave room for middle men owning micro fleets hasn't yet entered into discussion. The article talked about the fleet based model and didn't get into whether it would be a broken up ownership scheme or an entirely top down model. When I saw that Ford was discontinuing their cars I thought it made sense according to that story. They are investing in a future that they anticipate is not many years away, but far enough off that the picture isn't quite clear as to how it will develop. They aren't investing in a business as usual future. Right now, they just want to milk the old model for what it can give them. That means trucks and SUV's.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'T')hey want to own the fleets that transport a city. I think that is Uber's eventual model as well. Whether either of these leave room for middle men owning micro fleets hasn't yet entered into discussion.

[vtsnowedin]

SUVs come in all sizes today. A Subaru Forester gets 28 mpg combined which matches many sedans. When people demand higher gas mileage they will get it but it will take gas higher then $4.00 to get there.