by kublikhan » Wed 29 Jun 2011, 19:14:35
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('astalavista_b', 'I')f Diesel automobiles for US increase as in the Europe, it could help to reduce oil consumption since diesel engines were 20% more efficient than gasoline. For instance in my country diesel is subsided which is 1$ less than gasoline per gallon. This will help further to reduce the oil price since US is the most oil consuming country at world.
I don't believe that is true. There is already a surplus of gasoline in the the world markets right now because of the US's increasing use of ethanol and decreasing imports of gasoline. Traditionally, North America ships it's excess diesel to Europe, Europe ships it's excess gasoline to North America. With NA purchasing less gasoline that it did before, this puts a drag on gasoline prices.
At the same time, China has rapidly increasing diesel consumption, much of it for backup power generation. It is starting to look like we will have another worldwide diesel shortage in 2012, similar to the one we had in 2008. Shortages of diesel are going to increase both the overall price and the volatility of oil prices. Thus I do not believe your assertion that the US switching to diesel would ease world crude oil prices.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')IA expects the world crude oil market will continue to tighten in 2012, with forecast OPEC crude oil production increasing by 0.7 million bbl/d and OPEC non-crude production growing by 0.4 million bbl/d. Non-crude liquids production refers to natural gas liquids. If you're lucky, you can get some "natural" gasoline from refining these liquids, but you won't get any middle distillates—diesel—at all. Gas liquids are used primarily in the petrochemicals industry.
Speaking of precious diesel fuel, the EIA's This Week In Petroleum had some scary things to say about China's demand for it in Chinese Oil Demand 101: The Role of Electricity. Past experience shows that even temporary shifts in the Chinese power generation mix from coal to oil can result in surprisingly large increments in apparent oil consumption.
Thus, in 2003-2004, Chinese oil demand spiked when electricity shortages occurred as the country lacked sufficient capacity to generate needed power. Faced with chronic brownouts and blackouts, or merely concerned with the potential for electricity shortfalls, many end-users turned to back-up generators, and ramped up their purchases of diesel to fuel them. Already middle distillates (diesel) account for the lion's share of Chinese oil demand (unlike the United States, where gasoline plays that role). One of the consequences of the expected uptick in Chinese oil demand for electricity generation this summer will be to further increase diesel's share of the Chinese demand barrel.
Never underestimate the role middle distillates play in driving crude oil prices. If diesel is in great demand, and clearly it will be given the Chinese scenarios laid out above, the "best" oil which provides the highest quantities of this product via the refining process is also in great demand. If there isn't enough of it to go around, prices spike.At the level of abstraction presented here, that's all you need to know. China's thirst for diesel fuel is unrelenting, and will easily overwhelm their ability to refine it from domestically produced crude. There were global diesel shortages in 2007-2008, and we are well on the way to having them again next year. The lost Libyan light sweet crude is "good" oil in the sense that you get lots of gasoline and diesel when you refine it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')asoline is an example of a product which is routinely imported in the summer time in the United States, when refineries are operating at 100% but demand goes above that. Over the last 5 years gasoline imports from Europe have been pretty routine. North Americans have been able to import gasoline from Europe because, unlike the case in North America, gasoline is not the highest demand product in Europe and there is surplus gasoline to bring in to North America.
The situation is different with diesel because diesel is the most important product refined in Europe. More people drive diesel cars in Europe than they do here and there is not that luxury to import surplus diesel from Europe to meet our requirements. This is why we see more volatility in the diesel price.