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Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

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Re: Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

Unread postby Pops » Sun 26 Jun 2011, 19:48:12

The IEA now has a FAQ page about this, they say it's about Lybia and summer driving season, that KSA is coming to the rescue but isn't there yet and they (IEA) may do some more rescuing if the KSA Camelry doesn't arrive in time.

I think that should take a little curl out of the traders tails - the "do some more later" part that is.
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Re: Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

Unread postby Pops » Sun 26 Jun 2011, 19:48:32

The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

Unread postby peeker01 » Sun 26 Jun 2011, 20:07:19

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Re: Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

Unread postby John_A » Sun 26 Jun 2011, 20:15:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peeker01', 'c')ramer in support of peak oil

http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.as ... 97337b42b7


The position of "the experts", I love it! Can Cramer spell the word oil?
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Re: Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sun 26 Jun 2011, 23:41:39

JohnA,

Its all about kicking the can down the road a bit more..that is all. I'm fully aware that 60mb is a drop in the bucket, but dribbled out a few mb each day gives them a few months more until they figure out the next BS line on how everything is going to be ok.

Personally I see it all ending badly. Not in a "doomer" sense, just a continued erosion into lower standards of living and more chaotic socio-political events.
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Re: Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 03:44:41

Brent Crude Oil Futures $/barrel $102.73 -$2.94 -2.8% @08:40 BST 27/06/2011
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Re: Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

Unread postby John_A » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 16:33:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'B')rent Crude Oil Futures $/barrel $102.73 -$2.94 -2.8% @08:40 BST 27/06/2011


So would everyone say that this is good? Or bad?

Gas prices are down near $0.30/gal in spots so far, and have been dropping even before the IEA cut loose some pittance of oil.

http://livermore.patch.com/articles/sum ... -to-fall-3
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Re: Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 16:55:10

Going back up already, so much for flushing out speculators!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')rent Crude Oil Futures $/barrel $106.44 +0.77 +0.7%


A clear sign that "the market" doesen't buy the idea of supply security, all this has done is temporarily pushed the price down for a while, thus delaying the onset of the next recession.
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Re: Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 17:41:40

Hey, I remember those $5 fills. :)
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Re: Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

Unread postby John_A » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 17:45:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'H')ey, I remember those $5 fills. :)


You must be old. Had you reached adulthood when the IEA was created? What was your impressions at its origin? Was it a big deal, make the papers, was it presented at savior or something worse? I think the history on these organizations are fascinating, how about OPEC? Were you around when it was formed, and what did the world think of that?
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Re: Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 17:47:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'I') think the price will crash. When speculators stop playing the game, the price will return to what the market will bear, rather than what it can be gamed to.
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Re: Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 17:51:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'H')ey, I remember those $5 fills. :)


You must be old. Had you reached adulthood when the IEA was created? What was your impressions at its origin? Was it a big deal, make the papers, was it presented at savior or something worse? I think the history on these organizations are fascinating, how about OPEC? Were you around when it was formed, and what did the world think of that?


Didn't care and didn't see any gas shortages, BUT oil supplies/ cost for boiler fuel became a problem. Coal fired boilers were retrofitted from coal to gas/ oil in the early 70's. New codes!
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Re: Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 28 Jun 2011, 03:55:58

Back up over $107 now, the short term fix is fooling no one.

Time for a reality check!

The only real solutions to a constricted supply is either high prices or reduced consumption, or both.

Economic growth simply can't happen when one of the prime fuel supplies to it is constrained, all that's happening now is that those countries that can make better use of that limited supply will win out over those that waste it!
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Re: Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

Unread postby pedalling_faster » Tue 28 Jun 2011, 08:54:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'E')conomic growth simply can't happen when one of the prime fuel supplies to it is constrained, all that's happening now is that those countries that can make better use of that limited supply will win out over those that waste it!


i don't agree, but my disagreement may be theoretical.

about 6 months ago, i got tired of paying high prices for charcoal lighter fluid, to start fires with.

so, smart me reasoned that, maybe gasoline would work ! lighter fluid is $2 a quart ... gasoline was $3.50 a gallon.

although it is dangerous to do this experiment, it is a good way to realize how much energy resides in just one tablespoon of gasoline.


i didn't even get singed eyebrows ... i was lucky.


in any case, our "Western" technology has been designed top to bottom to guzzle gasoline.

the start-a-fire-with-a-tablespoon-of-gasoline experiment is a great way to realize, we don't need to guzzle gasoline, we can sip it.

and screw petro-chemicals, there are plenty of plant based plastics for industry to use ... the hemp fans are happy to talk about that subject & Henry Ford provided some great examples of industrial applications for non-petro-chemicals.

so, all we need to do is re-design & re-tool ... EVERYTHING ... and we'll be OK !!


though, personally, i think we painted ourselves into a corner when we tore down our mass transit back in the 1940's & 50's. (or allowed them to be bought up by oil & car companies & torn down.)

i forget what word Hirsch used about The Transition. Wrenching ? gut-wrenching ? anyway, it's a non-trivial transition, but - India is doing it. the US did it - we had a much lower per capita energy use many moons ago.
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Re: Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

Unread postby stephankrasner » Tue 28 Jun 2011, 13:21:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', '
')about 6 months ago, i got tired of paying high prices for charcoal lighter fluid, to start fires with.

so, smart me reasoned that, maybe gasoline would work ! lighter fluid is $2 a quart ... gasoline was $3.50 a gallon.


Or... You could just use a charcoal chimney/old newspaper, and never have to buy liquid starter again.
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Re: Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

Unread postby astalavista_b » Wed 29 Jun 2011, 15:41:42

If Diesel automobiles for US increase as in the Europe, it could help to reduce oil consumption since diesel engines were 20% more efficient than gasoline. For instance in my country diesel is subsided which is 1$ less than gasoline per gallon. This will help further to reduce the oil price since US is the most oil consuming country at world.
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Re: Where are Oil Prices Going Monday June 27 ?

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 29 Jun 2011, 19:14:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('astalavista_b', 'I')f Diesel automobiles for US increase as in the Europe, it could help to reduce oil consumption since diesel engines were 20% more efficient than gasoline. For instance in my country diesel is subsided which is 1$ less than gasoline per gallon. This will help further to reduce the oil price since US is the most oil consuming country at world.
I don't believe that is true. There is already a surplus of gasoline in the the world markets right now because of the US's increasing use of ethanol and decreasing imports of gasoline. Traditionally, North America ships it's excess diesel to Europe, Europe ships it's excess gasoline to North America. With NA purchasing less gasoline that it did before, this puts a drag on gasoline prices.

At the same time, China has rapidly increasing diesel consumption, much of it for backup power generation. It is starting to look like we will have another worldwide diesel shortage in 2012, similar to the one we had in 2008. Shortages of diesel are going to increase both the overall price and the volatility of oil prices. Thus I do not believe your assertion that the US switching to diesel would ease world crude oil prices.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')IA expects the world crude oil market will continue to tighten in 2012, with forecast OPEC crude oil production increasing by 0.7 million bbl/d and OPEC non-crude production growing by 0.4 million bbl/d. Non-crude liquids production refers to natural gas liquids. If you're lucky, you can get some "natural" gasoline from refining these liquids, but you won't get any middle distillates—diesel—at all. Gas liquids are used primarily in the petrochemicals industry.

Speaking of precious diesel fuel, the EIA's This Week In Petroleum had some scary things to say about China's demand for it in Chinese Oil Demand 101: The Role of Electricity. Past experience shows that even temporary shifts in the Chinese power generation mix from coal to oil can result in surprisingly large increments in apparent oil consumption.

Thus, in 2003-2004, Chinese oil demand spiked when electricity shortages occurred as the country lacked sufficient capacity to generate needed power. Faced with chronic brownouts and blackouts, or merely concerned with the potential for electricity shortfalls, many end-users turned to back-up generators, and ramped up their purchases of diesel to fuel them. Already middle distillates (diesel) account for the lion's share of Chinese oil demand (unlike the United States, where gasoline plays that role). One of the consequences of the expected uptick in Chinese oil demand for electricity generation this summer will be to further increase diesel's share of the Chinese demand barrel.

Never underestimate the role middle distillates play in driving crude oil prices. If diesel is in great demand, and clearly it will be given the Chinese scenarios laid out above, the "best" oil which provides the highest quantities of this product via the refining process is also in great demand. If there isn't enough of it to go around, prices spike.

At the level of abstraction presented here, that's all you need to know. China's thirst for diesel fuel is unrelenting, and will easily overwhelm their ability to refine it from domestically produced crude. There were global diesel shortages in 2007-2008, and we are well on the way to having them again next year. The lost Libyan light sweet crude is "good" oil in the sense that you get lots of gasoline and diesel when you refine it.
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$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')asoline is an example of a product which is routinely imported in the summer time in the United States, when refineries are operating at 100% but demand goes above that. Over the last 5 years gasoline imports from Europe have been pretty routine. North Americans have been able to import gasoline from Europe because, unlike the case in North America, gasoline is not the highest demand product in Europe and there is surplus gasoline to bring in to North America.

The situation is different with diesel because diesel is the most important product refined in Europe. More people drive diesel cars in Europe than they do here and there is not that luxury to import surplus diesel from Europe to meet our requirements. This is why we see more volatility in the diesel price.
On the factors behind the current state of fuel price volatility

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ecause of ethanol's growing role in the U.S. market, exporters of gasoline to the U.S. will find themselves with a stockpile of petroleum, Cohan says. Traditionally, the U.S. has consumed about 1 million barrels of gasoline imports per day. In the past, much of that demand has been supplied by Europe, which traditionally has a substantial surplus of gasoline. Europe ships gasoline to the U.S. and the U.S. backhauls diesel to Europe. Cohan says this arrangement has been convenient for both markets, but that is about to change. "As the United States exports diesel, it has less of an appetite for gasoline," he says. "What that means is that European gasoline has to go elsewhere. They have to start looking for new markets." As a result, European gas suppliers are expected to target replacement markets in areas of the Middle East and Africa.
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