PeakOil is You
When will we hit the peak?
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When will we hit the peak?
by Dreamer » Wed 29 Nov 2006, 17:46:22
Hi everybody, I'm new to the forum. I'm a student of sociology and biology at the University of Michigan. I first found out about peak oil a few months ago when I stumbled into The Party's Over in the library. Anyway, I'm interested in telling my friends about peak oil but sources seem to vary considerably on how soon we're to peak. If anyone can let me know about a consensus in the community or simply their own opinion, I'd appreciate it.
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Re: When will we hit the peak?
by nth » Wed 29 Nov 2006, 18:13:06
There is no consensus.
The closest thing to a consensus we have is that we will hit peak.
Pessimists state that we have hit peak in 2005.
Then, you have a bunch of people predicting from now till 2030.
Anyone predicting beyond 2050 simply are pulling numbers without doing any serious research.
I think if you look at the data available, you will think 2007-2012. Anything beyond 2012 is a lot of guess work. Any date before 2012, we have good data on where existing oil fields are and any new projects coming online. What is not known is how much oil production will drop in existing oil fields. Will it drop a lot or average? If average, then peak should be 2012 or beyond. The trend shows the drop is increasing over time, so average is unlikely.
That is my opinion.
The closest thing to a consensus we have is that we will hit peak.
Pessimists state that we have hit peak in 2005.
Then, you have a bunch of people predicting from now till 2030.
Anyone predicting beyond 2050 simply are pulling numbers without doing any serious research.
I think if you look at the data available, you will think 2007-2012. Anything beyond 2012 is a lot of guess work. Any date before 2012, we have good data on where existing oil fields are and any new projects coming online. What is not known is how much oil production will drop in existing oil fields. Will it drop a lot or average? If average, then peak should be 2012 or beyond. The trend shows the drop is increasing over time, so average is unlikely.
That is my opinion.
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Re: When will we hit the peak?
by Laughs_Last » Wed 29 Nov 2006, 20:02:20
When we hit peak depends on what is being counted, and who is doing the counting.
Most of the 2005 crowd is counting light sweet crude. Higher numbers come from counting stuff that is more expensive to deliver to the market. One other great variable is that everyone who has oil lies about what they have. Also, as fossil fuels become more expensive, alternarives become more economically viable. Picking out a date is a case of accounting meets statistics meets semantics.
Most of the 2005 crowd is counting light sweet crude. Higher numbers come from counting stuff that is more expensive to deliver to the market. One other great variable is that everyone who has oil lies about what they have. Also, as fossil fuels become more expensive, alternarives become more economically viable. Picking out a date is a case of accounting meets statistics meets semantics.
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Re: When will we hit the peak?
by Carlhole » Wed 29 Nov 2006, 20:02:45
Lights flash...bells go off...
Just like when the stock market tops out.
Just like when the stock market tops out.
- Carlhole
Re: When will we hit the peak?
by benzoil » Wed 29 Nov 2006, 20:34:03
I think nth summed it up in a nutshell. A 2005 peak of light sweet crude is starting to look correct. We are probably on the "undulating plateau" of the peak right now and will be until we enter serious decline.
When will that be? Dunno. I think the 2010 to 2012 estimates seem more accurate than the others. For one thing, all the 2015-2030 scenarios assume that no one is lying about their reserves. Given the incentives to lie and the fact that everyone in OPEC suddenly doubled their reserves in the 1980s after the reserve-based quota system was introduced, I'd say they probably are.
The question is less about when the exact moment of peak will be (although knowing the correct decade would be nice!) than how severe the drop off and how effective the mitigation strategies. A slow descent won't bring the chaos that many predict. A fast one probably will.
In any case, its good to see someone else in Michigan is PO aware. Even if you're on the other side of the state!
When will that be? Dunno. I think the 2010 to 2012 estimates seem more accurate than the others. For one thing, all the 2015-2030 scenarios assume that no one is lying about their reserves. Given the incentives to lie and the fact that everyone in OPEC suddenly doubled their reserves in the 1980s after the reserve-based quota system was introduced, I'd say they probably are.
The question is less about when the exact moment of peak will be (although knowing the correct decade would be nice!) than how severe the drop off and how effective the mitigation strategies. A slow descent won't bring the chaos that many predict. A fast one probably will.
In any case, its good to see someone else in Michigan is PO aware. Even if you're on the other side of the state!
TANSTAAFL
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Re: When will we hit the peak?
by gego » Wed 29 Nov 2006, 21:14:53
You want to know the unknowable. Without the benefit of hindsight, the time of the peak cannot be determined.
Conventional oil production will peak sooner than total oil production. There are many variables, but you can be sure that there will be a peak and given the long span of the world oil production curve, and what is known about discoveries and depletion rates we are now in the ballpark with estimates from 2005 to 2030. My own guess is within the next 10 years.
Exactly how things unfold once peak is reached, has a lot of variables also, but you can be sure that absent a real energy substitute the current world population cannot be sustained at the current level. Life (and death) will be much different on the way down the depletion slide than it was going up the ladder.
Date and place of birth do have a lot to do with the life you can live. This is the hand you are dealt, so just play it the best you can.
Conventional oil production will peak sooner than total oil production. There are many variables, but you can be sure that there will be a peak and given the long span of the world oil production curve, and what is known about discoveries and depletion rates we are now in the ballpark with estimates from 2005 to 2030. My own guess is within the next 10 years.
Exactly how things unfold once peak is reached, has a lot of variables also, but you can be sure that absent a real energy substitute the current world population cannot be sustained at the current level. Life (and death) will be much different on the way down the depletion slide than it was going up the ladder.
Date and place of birth do have a lot to do with the life you can live. This is the hand you are dealt, so just play it the best you can.
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Re: When will we hit the peak?
by Tyler_JC » Wed 29 Nov 2006, 21:58:29
Thursday May 19th, 2011 at roughly 11pm Eastern Standard Time.
But we won't know untill Friday May 20th, 2011 at around 6am because the papers don't arrive untill then.
The announcement that will give it away will consist of the following headline located on page 11. "OPEC authorizes 100% production for the next quarter"
But we won't know untill Friday May 20th, 2011 at around 6am because the papers don't arrive untill then.
The announcement that will give it away will consist of the following headline located on page 11. "OPEC authorizes 100% production for the next quarter"
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Re: When will we hit the peak?
by joewp » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 01:52:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')hursday May 19th, 2011 at roughly 11pm Eastern Standard Time.
But we won't know untill Friday May 20th, 2011 at around 6am because the papers don't arrive untill then.
The announcement that will give it away will consist of the following headline located on page 11. "OPEC authorizes 100% production for the next quarter"
But we won't know untill Friday May 20th, 2011 at around 6am because the papers don't arrive untill then.
The announcement that will give it away will consist of the following headline located on page 11. "OPEC authorizes 100% production for the next quarter"
I thought they've already done that.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Opec to carry on pumping full blast after Vienna talks', '
')Mar 8, 2006
OIL CARTEL Opec will agree to continue pumping at full tilt when it meets in Vienna today, writes Jane Padgham.
With oil prices back within striking distance of record highs, and supply disruptions in Nigeria and Iraq, analysts said Opec has no choice but to keep the taps turned to maximum.
US crude was today down 13 cents at $61.45 a barrel, compared with a record high of $70.85.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Opec remarks may pump oil price', '
')Sunday, 22 May, 2005
Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said the oil cartel should consider cutting output to guard against a "collapse" in the cost of crude.
His Iranian counterpart Bijan Zanganeh said Opec was pumping at full capacity, well above daily output limits.
I think people are getting too much reassurance from this relatively low price(even though it's up almost 12% in less than two weeks). Keep in mind that KSA was pumping at 9.5mb/d earlier this year and their production declined to near 9mb/d while oil prices were climbing and before any OPEC "cuts". Also, the lack of hurricanes allowed the usual lower demand "shoulder season" to occur normally this year. In the meantime, as the EIA reports show, inventories of refined products are going below the 5-year averages ahead of the high demand winter season.
Some people speculate these recent OPEC cuts are supplying cover for unexpected natural depletion, especially in light of KSA's reduction of production earlier this year. If this is true, then we have indeed peaked, and this current small run-up in prices will accelerate into the new year and take out the old record. If the US has just a normal winter this year, prices could go even higher.
Others say there's new projects coming on line next year and in subsequent years that will increase production, but the real question is, will they be a net addition after considering Cantarell's 14% depletion, Burgan and the other depleting fields and provinces, like the North Sea?
Time will tell, but I definately think we hit at least a "mini-peak" last year.
Joe P. joeparente.com
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
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Re: When will we hit the peak?
by kokoda » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 05:18:09
The biggest problem will be that we won't recognise the peak until perhaps years after the event.
Sometime in 2008 a government body somewhere may come forward and announce that oil production peaked in December 2005.
The stock market will collapse within minutes of the announcement and our lives will change forever.
Sometime in 2008 a government body somewhere may come forward and announce that oil production peaked in December 2005.
The stock market will collapse within minutes of the announcement and our lives will change forever.
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Re: When will we hit the peak?
by gt1370a » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 10:04:36
From Hirsch presentation:
•Pickens, T. Boone(Oil & gas investor)………………………………………2005
•Deffeyes, K.(Retired Princeton professor & retired Shell geologist)……..2005
•Westervelt, E.T. et al.(US Army Corps of Engineers)………….……..At hand
•Bakhtiari, S.(Iranian National Oil Co. planner)……………………………..Now
•Herrera, R.(Retired BP geologist)………………………………..Close or past
•Groppe, H.(Oil / gas expert & businessman)…………………..…….Very soon
•Wrobel, S.(Investment fund manager)……………………………..….By 2010
•Bentley, R.(University energy analyst)……….………..…….…..Around 2010
•Campbell, C. (Retired oil company geologist; Texaco & Amoco).……….2010
•Skrebowski, C.(Editor of Petroleum Review)………………...2010 +/-a year
•Koppelaar, R.H.E.M.(Dutch oil analyst)………………………...Around 2012
•Meling, L.M.(Statoil oil company geologist)……..A challenge around 2011
•Volvo Trucks……………………………………………Within a decade
•de Margerie, C.(Oil company executive) ……..…....Within a decade
•al Husseini, S.(Retired Exec. VP of Saudi Aramco)…………….2015
•Merrill Lynch(Brokerage / Financial).…….……….……Around 2015
•West, J.R., PFC Energy(Consultants)..…………………..2015-2020
•Maxwell, C.T., Weeden & Co.(Brokerage)..Around 2020 or earlier
•Amarach Consutling(Ireland)……………………….Within 15 years
•Wood Mackenzie(Energy consultin……...…Tight balance by 2020
•Total(French oil company)……………………..………..Around 2020
•UBS(Brokerage / Financial)…………………..Mid to late 2020s
•CERA(Energy consulting)……………………….Well after 2020“Peak oil theory is garbage”
•ExxonMobil(Oil company)…….…….….…No sign of peaking
•Browne, J.(BP CEO)…………………...Impossible to predict
•OPEC………………………………………Deny peak oil theory
•Pickens, T. Boone(Oil & gas investor)………………………………………2005
•Deffeyes, K.(Retired Princeton professor & retired Shell geologist)……..2005
•Westervelt, E.T. et al.(US Army Corps of Engineers)………….……..At hand
•Bakhtiari, S.(Iranian National Oil Co. planner)……………………………..Now
•Herrera, R.(Retired BP geologist)………………………………..Close or past
•Groppe, H.(Oil / gas expert & businessman)…………………..…….Very soon
•Wrobel, S.(Investment fund manager)……………………………..….By 2010
•Bentley, R.(University energy analyst)……….………..…….…..Around 2010
•Campbell, C. (Retired oil company geologist; Texaco & Amoco).……….2010
•Skrebowski, C.(Editor of Petroleum Review)………………...2010 +/-a year
•Koppelaar, R.H.E.M.(Dutch oil analyst)………………………...Around 2012
•Meling, L.M.(Statoil oil company geologist)……..A challenge around 2011
•Volvo Trucks……………………………………………Within a decade
•de Margerie, C.(Oil company executive) ……..…....Within a decade
•al Husseini, S.(Retired Exec. VP of Saudi Aramco)…………….2015
•Merrill Lynch(Brokerage / Financial).…….……….……Around 2015
•West, J.R., PFC Energy(Consultants)..…………………..2015-2020
•Maxwell, C.T., Weeden & Co.(Brokerage)..Around 2020 or earlier
•Amarach Consutling(Ireland)……………………….Within 15 years
•Wood Mackenzie(Energy consultin……...…Tight balance by 2020
•Total(French oil company)……………………..………..Around 2020
•UBS(Brokerage / Financial)…………………..Mid to late 2020s
•CERA(Energy consulting)……………………….Well after 2020“Peak oil theory is garbage”
•ExxonMobil(Oil company)…….…….….…No sign of peaking
•Browne, J.(BP CEO)…………………...Impossible to predict
•OPEC………………………………………Deny peak oil theory
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Re: When will we hit the peak?
by EnergyHog » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 13:09:37
Someone in Ann Arbor knows about peak oil? Yipee! I thought I was the only nut in town!
Survive the economic fallout...
PeakEconomy.com
PeakEconomy.com
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Re: When will we hit the peak?
by MD » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 13:20:27
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyHog', 'S')omeone in Ann Arbor knows about peak oil? Yipee! I thought I was the only nut in town!
42-39
A lovely day it was!
Big smiles all around, from here to across the street at the shoe.
re: topic
peak is now
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.
Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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