By BRAD FOSS, AP Business Writer Tue May 9, 5:34 PM ET
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Q. How much oil is there, and when are we likely to run out?
A. Most industry and government analysts believe petroleum will be a growing energy source for decades to come. And depending on a variety of financial, environmental, technological and geopolitical factors, oil could be with us — albeit in shrinking volumes — for another hundred years.
PeakOil is You
When will oil run out?
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Re: When will oil run out?
by Sleepybag » Wed 10 May 2006, 07:15:05
Oil will not run out for 140 years.
The supply will shrink slowly though.
Peak Oil suggests that world oil extraction will mimic local oil extraction figures. Statistics from the USA and the North Sea show oil extraction typically increases till the 50% point, and then goes downhill from there. It looks like a pyramid or mountain sideview. The same will happen with the worldwide oil supply. Once a field starts being exploited, it slowly exhausts. Oil companies always favored big, clean, easy oil fields. Hence, new fields tend to be smaller and located in less favorable places. It all results in more expensive, low volume and low quality oil being the last to be pumped up. But oil will not completely be gone for a long time. You just won't be able to afford it anymore.
The supply will shrink slowly though.
Peak Oil suggests that world oil extraction will mimic local oil extraction figures. Statistics from the USA and the North Sea show oil extraction typically increases till the 50% point, and then goes downhill from there. It looks like a pyramid or mountain sideview. The same will happen with the worldwide oil supply. Once a field starts being exploited, it slowly exhausts. Oil companies always favored big, clean, easy oil fields. Hence, new fields tend to be smaller and located in less favorable places. It all results in more expensive, low volume and low quality oil being the last to be pumped up. But oil will not completely be gone for a long time. You just won't be able to afford it anymore.
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Re: When will oil run out?
by Concerned » Wed 10 May 2006, 08:34:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('What2DO', 'B')y BRAD FOSS, AP Business Writer
Tue May 9, 5:34 PM ET
Q. How much oil is there, and when are we likely to run out?
A. Most industry and government analysts believe petroleum will be a growing energy source for decades to come. And depending on a variety of financial, environmental, technological and geopolitical factors, oil could be with us — albeit in shrinking volumes — for another hundred years.
Full story here ATT/Yahoo News
Tue May 9, 5:34 PM ET
Q. How much oil is there, and when are we likely to run out?
A. Most industry and government analysts believe petroleum will be a growing energy source for decades to come. And depending on a variety of financial, environmental, technological and geopolitical factors, oil could be with us — albeit in shrinking volumes — for another hundred years.
Full story here ATT/Yahoo News
Peak Oil is about the "peak" the maximum global production that the world will ever get. It's esentially the end of cheap energy.
There will be oil in the ground hundreds if not thousands of years from now.
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb
-Italian Proverb
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Concerned - Heavy Crude
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Re: When will oil run out?
by LadyRuby » Wed 10 May 2006, 09:33:29
One quote from the article:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U').S. government research that is widely respected among analysts concludes that a peak in output — or the point at which half of the world's reserves are depleted — is likely to arrive around the middle of this century, give or take a decade or so.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U').S. government research that is widely respected among analysts concludes that a peak in output — or the point at which half of the world's reserves are depleted — is likely to arrive around the middle of this century, give or take a decade or so.
That US government may be widely respected but they have a terrible track record for accurately predicting supply and prices.
Look at this slide on natural gas in 1998 (especially look at lower NA conventional gas):
Natural gas production forecast from 1998
Versus this in 2005 (Slide 11 in this presentation):
2005 natural gas production forecast slide 11
In 1998 the were expecting a great increase in conventional natural gas. Never materialized. So by 2005 they had changed their story to unconventional natural gas.
Or natural gas price projections: Natural gas price forecast 1999
Here, not long ago look at the projected world price through 2025, under $30/barrel.
2004 EIA forecast for oil
Or here: Another forecast for price of oil
Or here: A 1999 forecast for price of oil
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Re: When will oil run out?
by big_rc » Wed 10 May 2006, 10:21:11
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('What2DO', 'B')y BRAD FOSS, AP Business Writer
Tue May 9, 5:34 PM ET
Q. How much oil is there, and when are we likely to run out?
A. Most industry and government analysts believe petroleum will be a growing energy source for decades to come. And depending on a variety of financial, environmental, technological and geopolitical factors, oil could be with us — albeit in shrinking volumes — for another hundred years.
Full story here ATT/Yahoo News
Tue May 9, 5:34 PM ET
Q. How much oil is there, and when are we likely to run out?
A. Most industry and government analysts believe petroleum will be a growing energy source for decades to come. And depending on a variety of financial, environmental, technological and geopolitical factors, oil could be with us — albeit in shrinking volumes — for another hundred years.
Full story here ATT/Yahoo News
The other posters here have hit on this point but I want to emphasize it. Peak Oil isn't about oil running out. We will probably never run out of oil. We just won't be able to produce the amount we need to fuel our lifestyles. That is what the person answering that question (subtly) pointed out. "Albeit in shrinking volumes" is the Peak Oil problem in a nutshell.
Simon's Law: Everything put together falls apart sooner or later.
I don't think of all the misery, but of all the beauty that still remains.--Anne Frank
I don't think of all the misery, but of all the beauty that still remains.--Anne Frank
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