[Zardoz]

Like we've been saying:

Wheat prices reach record level

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')heat prices have hit record highs on global commodity markets, bringing the threat of rising bread prices. Bad weather in key grain growing areas such as Canada and parts of Europe has limited supplies as demand has risen, sparking fears of a supply shortfall.

Surging prices are also expected to have widespread fallout for consumers. While it will mean higher bread prices, it could also trigger an increase in meat and dairy prices as farmers battle to pass on rising feed costs.

Global wheat stockpiles will slip to their lowest levels in 26 years as a result, official US figures predicted earlier this month.

[Denny]

Another unintended consequence of the ethanol boom. This since 2004:



Good thing its not part of the "core" rate of inflation, cause that would really upset the markets and the government economists.

[Offshore]

http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2005/20050725.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you look at wheat, the amount of acreage under cultivation for wheat is actually in decline over the past 25 years.

[Schneider]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat are they growing now in those fields?

[mattduke]

Wheat for December delivery rose as much as 23.25 cents, or 3 percent, to $8.0775 a bushel in electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade. It was at $8.0525 as of 7:10 a.m. local time. The commodity has gained 28 percent this month, the most since August 1973.

Bloomberg

[leal]

Wheat stock to slide globally$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')EW DELHI: Wheat is all set to see a price rise following the International Grains Council’s announcement that the carryover stock of the cereal is bound to witness a fall in 2007-08.

According to a report by the council, global 2007-08 wheat carryover stocks will fall to a 28-year low of 111 million tonnes.

[coyote]

Edit...

[frankthetank]

Just a guess, but you would think that some acres will come out of corn/soy and be put into wheat?

[SILENTTODD]

No More Wonder Bread! (On the west coast)

http://www.latimes.com/la-fi-wonder29au ... 6850.story

Hmmm?

[in_nowhere]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ust a guess, but you would think that some acres will come out of corn/soy and be put into wheat?

[MrBill]

well, with wheat at $8.45 a bushel and corn at $3.40 I cannot see a lot of switching from wheat to corn? but it depends on your land and your heat units. in most places soybeans at $9.25 a bushel are a good substitute for corn, but wheat has lower yields per acre on average. also, wheat is for human consumption while corn and soybeans are for the most part components of animal feed. therefore, usually wheat does trade at a price premium to corn. the OECD yesterday urged governments to reframe from subsidizing bio-fuels because they correctly see this need for energy as a direct competitor for arable acres to grow food. and they are concerned about habitat destruction as marginal land is brought under production. but I am not optimistic. governments are too short sighted and farmers the world over are under too much financial pressure, so they will grow what they can sell profitably whether that is wheat, animal feed or poppies for opium.

[highlander]

Most crops are sold at a pre-determined contract price before they are planted. The record wheat price is what buyers are willing to pay for un-contracted crops. I have no idea what percentage of the crops are not under contract, but I would guess under 25%. One farmer I talked to recently said his was contracted at about 4.75. Considering last years wheat was going for under 4.00, he probably thought he was doing OK (which he was)
Peak wheat anyone?

[PhebaAndThePilgrim]

Good morning, from Pheba, from the farm:
There are a lot of variables involved in what an American farmer can plant on his crop ground.
Almost all large crop farmers are locked into federal programs that predict what they plant, and more importantly, when they plant it.
Wheat and corn and soybeans are the 3 main crops in the U.S., although I am seeing some milo (grain sorghum) being planted more often. Milo is very resistant to drought.
The downside is that Milo is best used as hog food.
Corn is usually rotated on a bi-yearly basis with soybeans, with wheat planted in between. Wheat can be spring wheat or winter wheat. Winter wheat is what usually gets planted here. The crop grows in cooler weather, and utilizes crop land during a time when corn and soybeans can't be grown.
Corn is the hardest on the soil and requires the largest inputs of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer, then comes soybeans, and wheat is last. Wheat requires the lowest levels of fertilizer and pesticides of the 3 grain crops.
So, it's not a matter of planting more wheat. I don't see how the ethanol mess plays into the wheat price rise or stock depletion.
Wheat is planted on the same ground as corn, but as part of a rotation program and at different times of the year.
If American farmers forego planting wheat to plant more corn, then mankind is totally doomed. The rotation of crops is absolutely essential to the survival of the soil.
Topsoil is totally depleted in this country.
The American farmer is producing an astounding quantity of grain one 4 to 6 inches of topsoil.
While that is amazing it is also precarious. I have not studied this problem, but if I had to hazard a guess I would say that grain production has peaked, and just can't keep up with demand.
Pheba
FYI. Straw comes from wheat. Straw is leftover wheat stubble.
We can no longer afford to feed corn to our cattle. We are now feeding corn gluten, a byproduct leftover from ethanol production. Corn gluten is 25 percent protein, and does not have the risk of bloat and founder that is involved with feeding straight corn. The cattle love it.
We also had a severe late spring frost, which damaged the grass. The hay crop was dismal. We had a severe drought. We are still about 14 inches behind on rain for the year. We are selling one third of our cattle herd. We will begin taking cows to the sale barn this weekend.
We are expecting a difficult winter here in Missouri, with hay bales reaching an all time high price.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Phebagirl', '.')..
The American farmer is producing an astounding quantity of grain one 4 to 6 inches of topsoil.
While that is amazing it is also precarious.
....

[MrBill]

Sorry to hear that Pheba. Up in N. Alberta we got lots of hay this year. We would have gotten a second cut as well except it is too late to cut it now ahead of winter frosts. Unfortunately (or fortunately) all our neighbors also got good hay this year, so the price is low in our area. Too bad we cannot ship it south to where you are, but transport costs are too high for such light, but bulky stuff such as hay.

It was sure good to see water in the sloughs and the water table inch up even a little this year. The place is still as green as spring around home. Small miracles. At least it breaks the cycle of despair in the agriculture community and stems the number of youths headed to work in the oil patch instead of taking over the family farm.

We used to rotate wheat, barley and canola, so we had a chance to kill the weeds. But now we just go straight hay. It is better for our land which is light brown, woody topsoil and hilly, and we cannot afford the machinery in any case. There are more cattle in our area than ever before. I think that is also better for the land and the local economy than exporting cereal grains. We are what you might call on marginally productive farmland. No corn or soybeans for us that far north.

[sparky]

.

For the one's interested , a good third of the australian harvest is gone , the ears got dry while still shooting they are letting the sheeps in the weath fields as feed paddocks
harvest estimate is down 6millions tones , I'm trying to get some info on Argentina , the other big southern harvest , they had some bad dry weather too recently ,
the site to watch is the U.S gov site , it's the world reference

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/index.htm

.

[careinke]

On the bright side, for the first time in a long while, Eastern Oregon has a good wheat crop along with a good price. I'm looking forward to our share cropping check this year.

Cliff (Start a revolution, grow a garden)

[TheDude]

Hey careinke, whereabouts are you in EO? I grew up in Morrow County, my cousins do a lot of farming north of Ione.

Didn't realize Cyprus was in Alberta, either. Or are you an expat, Mr. Bill?

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'H')ey careinke, whereabouts are you in EO? I grew up in Morrow County, my cousins do a lot of farming north of Ione.

Didn't realize Cyprus was in Alberta, either. Or are you an expat, Mr. Bill?

[careinke]

<b>Hey careinke, whereabouts are you in EO? I grew up in Morrow County, my cousins do a lot of farming north of Ione. </B>

I live on the Puget Sound. We have some wheat land just North of Pendleton that is farmed by a cousin. We just collect the checks.

Cliff (Start a revolution, grow a garden)