[ROCKMAN]

Pops - "...would a low PDF today mean a lower oil price in a 14.32 months?" Not sure. The PDF could be cross plotted with a variety of other metrics. An interesting one would be against GDP especially if one was clever enough to include a time lag function. Might see a stronger correlation then we see with recessions vs oil prices.

At the moment the PDF looks like it might stand up as a better predictor of economic health then oil prices or consumption alone.

[ROCKMAN]

And what’s also underlies LNG prices? Doesn’t look good for US LNG saving the EU from Putin. Not that the Europeans were going to be willing to pay our LNG exporters more for their product then they would pay Putin IMHO:

Reuters – “Excelerate Energy's Texan liquefied natural gas terminal plan has become the first victim of an oil price slump threatening the economics of U.S. LNG export projects. A halving in the oil price since June has upended assumptions by developers that cheap U.S. LNG would muscle into high-value Asian energy markets, which relied on oil prices staying high to make the U.S. supply affordable.

The floating 8 million tonne per annum (mtpa) export plant moored at Lavaca Bay, Texas advanced by Houston-based Excelerate has been put on hold, according to regulatory filings obtained by Reuters. The project was initially due to begin exports in 2018.

Excelerate's move bodes ill for thirteen other U.S. LNG projects, which have also not signed up enough international buyers, to reach a final investment decision (FID). Only Cheniere's Sabine Pass and Sempra's Cameron LNG projects have hit that milestone. Back when LNG and crude oil prices were riding high in February, Excelerate, founded by Oklahoma billionaire George Kaiser, applied for permits to build the facility.”

In the meantime Chenier is spending $billions to modify their facility (which was built to import LNG) to an export terminal. Makes me wonder if by the time they’re ready to export the global LNG market will become cheap enough for the US to begin importing especially if a decline in the NG associated with the shale plays falls off sufficient to raise domestic prices.

Chenier may finally get the timing right. LOL.