[SoothSayer]

I am currently assuming that the oil price will drift upwards, but not too fast, so we will be able to adapt to it.

However we might also experience sudden nasty events (wars, terrorism etc) which could push oil prices to say $150 for extended periods.

What sort of price spike and duration (or lack of oil imports) would IRREVERSIBLY damage our economy and/or social infrastructure?

Worst case I suppose would be a TOTAL closedown of imports: I suspect that governments would invoke harsh wartime rules, and life would limp along for maybe months even years.

Does anyone here have enough experience/knowledge to know how resiliant our society is to such transient events?

(I doubt that our societies are as fragile as many seem to think)

[Lighthouse]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', '
')
...
(I doubt that our societies are as fragile as many seem to think)

[aldente]

There will be no closedown of imports, are you crazy?

[SoothSayer]

albente I have reviewed several of your recent posts.

They seem to have little real content ... normally a silly picture plus a silly comment.

You have won a prize! You are the first to go onto my "ignore list".

Not even lorenzo has achieved that - although I find his posts annoying, at least they are well thought out and full of data & valid opinion.

The forum Signal To Noise ratio is about to increase significantly for me - whoopee!

[aldente]

Ignore actually is quite hefty. I tried it on a random poster and I swear I could not revive any of his posts till today.
So, either you live with me or you live with a final form of deletion.

[peaker_2005]

I agree that there won't be a total disappearance of imports/exports, though they'll certainly slow down. Trade existed before oil, it will continue after oil, though at a MUCH reduced rate, and will be primarily non-perishables.

[Micki]

A super spike is in itself never irreversible.
Look at Germany after their hyper inflation.
Furthermore I don't think US for instance can block imports, no matter the price, as long as the volume of oil is there.
This would create serious issues with trading partners like China.
Only if it is officially confirmed that supply is dwindling and national security is at stake, could imports be totally blocked.

[Micki]

A super spike is in itself never irreversible.
Look at Germany after their hyper inflation.
Furthermore I don't think US for instance can block imports, no matter the price, as long as the volume of oil is there.
This would create serious issues with trading partners like China.
Only if it is officially confirmed that supply is dwindling and national security is at stake, could imports be totally blocked.

[Jack]

I don't think any superspike will lead to irreversible damage or change. If oil ceased to exist in any form for a century, followed by the discovery that limitless amounts were available from some mythical source, then our present easy-motoring lifestyle would return.

Micki pointed out German hyperinflation - but look at other devastated nations. In each instance, consumption rapidly increased to accomodate supply.

[SoothSayer]

>> I don't think any superspike will lead to irreversible damage or change.

Until maybe 10 years ago I would have agreed with you.

However in the UK at least most people buy their food from just 1500 or so supermarkets!

These 1500 shops are supplied with their goods 3 times a day by truck.

The supermarkets work a Just In Time principle ... they may have only 2 or 3 days total food and other items held in stock.

Our fuel system has similar lack of buffer stocks (although I believe other European countries are more sensible & have big emergency stocks)

Most of our troops are in foreign countries and our police are unarmed.

I really have no idea if, say, a 10 day fuel shortage in combination with panics & hoarding would bring the whole system down.

If we ever reached the point of rioting or looting then it might be VERY difficult to "restart" ... even if fuel etc become available again.

After such a 10-day event I can imagine that the social landscape of the country could be permanently changed.

[Mechler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', 'U')ntil maybe 10 years ago I would have agreed with you.

However in the UK at least most people buy their food from just 1500 or so supermarkets!

These 1500 shops are supplied with their goods 3 times a day by truck.

The supermarkets work a Just In Time principle ... they may have only 2 or 3 days total food and other items held in stock.

Our fuel system has similar lack of buffer stocks (although I believe other European countries are more sensible & have big emergency stocks)

Most of our troops are in foreign countries and our police are unarmed.

I really have no idea if, say, a 10 day fuel shortage in combination with panics & hoarding would bring the whole system down.

If we ever reached the point of rioting or looting then it might be VERY difficult to "restart" ... even if fuel etc become available again.

After such a 10-day event I can imagine that the social landscape of the country could be permanently changed.

[MrBill]

Zimbabwe, Argentina, Bosnia, Yugoslavia, USSR, too many African countries to count.... this is not running out of oil per se, but we do see economies stabilize and then return to normal in a relatively short period of time, as the informal economy steps in to take care of people's everyday needs

[SoothSayer]

I was in Croatia a few years after the end of their war.

Their Western style country had been involved in a sordid litle war ... but they were rebuilding.

The only thing was that the people seemed so "mixed up" mentally by it all.

They had recovered materially ... but life was NOT the same.

[Mechler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'Z')imbabwe, Argentina, Bosnia, Yugoslavia, USSR, too many African countries to count.... this is not running out of oil per se, but we do see economies stabilize and then return to normal in a relatively short period of time, as the informal economy steps in to take care of people's everyday needs

[markam]

It took New Orleans about 2 days to degenerate to complete anarchy once the food, fuel and electricity was gone. If fuel and electricity were lost in large areas, it would take about 2-5 days before all control was lost, all shops were looted, and huge numbers of people were killed.

Of course, a gradual increase in fuel prices will probably not cause a sudden collapse of civilization. I think the more pressing concern is what will happen if the value of the dollar drops to 20% of the current value next week. I think that a sudden economic shock like that could result in complete breakdown.

[lateStarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mechler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'Z')imbabwe, Argentina, Bosnia, Yugoslavia, USSR, too many African countries to count.... this is not running out of oil per se, but we do see economies stabilize and then return to normal in a relatively short period of time, as the informal economy steps in to take care of people's everyday needs

[atfqn]

<quote>I think the more pressing concern is what will happen if the value of the dollar drops to 20% of the current value next week. I think that a sudden economic shock like that could result in complete breakdown.</qoute>

I am in total agreement. Canada is now at 90% of the dollar - first time in 25 years... Gold and other commodities are soaring. Something is going on. You factor in the M3 garbage. I would not be surprised if there was suddenly massive influx of cash coming into the banks. When the people come they will get what everyone else is getting - fiat money that will be losing value every second after being printed.

[mgibbons19]

If the government is trying to monetize their debts, why shouldn't we? Just park our debts at 0% somewhere and let the dollar fall take them out.