[Leanan]

From Platts:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') draft US Government Accountability Office report finds that, though it is difficult to assess whether the world has reached "peak oil," a large number of experts surveyed for the report believe the world may have reached the peak for conventional petroleum supplies, said Representative Roscoe Bartlett, Republican-Maryland.
Bartlett, who has raised concerns that the world has produced more oil than remains in reserves, ordered the report from GAO -- the nonpartisan investigative arm of Congress -- and will release it within the next month.
He said the report authors did not get a fix on how much oil is left in the world because principal oil suppliers would offer no information about how much oil they have left. "They have no reason to tell us and little reason to be truthful," Bartlett said, so it is "very difficult to determine a date specific" when the world will reach peak oil.
But he added that the GAO report found that "the largest number of [experts] believe that it has occurred, that conventional supplies have peaked."

[pup55]

The report will not be "published" for another 30 days, but we should post the link as soon as it is available to find out who these "experts" are.

[Bleep]

Tom Whipple of the Falls Church News Press wrote about this report last year:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=510&Itemid=33]The Peak Oil Crisis: The Studies (link)[/url]
By Tom Whipple
Thursday, 16 November 2006

... two major studies of the prospects for world energy supplies are currently underway in Washington. The first of these is being done by the Government Accountability Office and is to be released on February 28. This study will actually deal with the prospects for "peak oil" -- when it will come and what can be done to mitigate the consequences. The GAO was asked by the House of Representatives Science Committee to undertake this study that has been underway for over a year.

... What can we expect from these studies? The GAO effort will almost certainly be the straightforward professional exercise we have come to expect from this organization. The study will probably acknowledge that world oil production will peak someday and the researchers, who work for the Congress, will do their best to give a balanced answer to questions of when production will peak and what might we do about it.

[Cynus]

This is a bombshell! When the GAO says we've peaked that is huge! Here is the story from today's ASPO newsletter:
4. CONGRESSMAN SAYS US REPORT POINTS TO ARRIVAL OF PEAK OIL
Platts
28 Feb 2007
A draft US Government Accountability Office report finds that, though it is difficult to assess whether the world has reached "peak oil," a large number of experts surveyed for the report believe the world may have reached the peak for conventional petroleum supplies, said Representative Roscoe Bartlett, Republican-Maryland.
Bartlett, who has raised concerns that the world has produced more oil than remains in reserves, ordered the report from GAO -- the nonpartisan investigative arm of Congress -- and will release it within the next month.
He said the report authors did not get a fix on how much oil is left in the world because principal oil suppliers would offer no information about how much oil they have left.
"They have no reason to tell us and little reason to be truthful," Bartlett said, so it is "very difficult to determine a date specific" when the world will reach peak oil.
But he added that the GAO report found that "the largest number of [experts] believe that it has occurred, that conventional supplies have peaked."
Jim Wells, director of the natural and resources and environment division at GAO, told the House Energy and Water Development Appropriations Subcommittee at a hearing Wednesday that the report includes a recommendation related to the lack of reliable data on world oil supplies. Wells also said the report provides "an extensive look at ... the academic and scientific community and
all the various studies that have been done, and has calculated a consensus on where they think peak oil is in our future."
Wells refused to provide more details on the report because he said Bartlett has 30 days by law to do so before GAO can publish the results.

[Newsseeker]

The evidence that we have passed peak with so many warning signs from Cantarell to Ghawar mounts with this report. That so many experts are willing to say we have peaked also does not bode well for CERA and their followers.

This should be an interesting summer.....

[Cobra_Strike]

I do wonder what they will have to say...confirmation at this point means little, all people are going to know is its time to cover their butts. I would expect that anything coming from our government will be as upbeat as the CERA snowjob. I can't imagine that this will say anything that will be unknown by the time it comes out if the peak has indeed happened and there is enough data for others to come to the same conclusion.

As it is, there is already enough information that prominent peak oil prognosticators have called it.

[Leanan]

I don't think it's that much of a bombshell. "Conventional" oil has peaked...that's not really news. The MSM will be pointing to heavy oil, oil sands, etc., and say that's the answer.

[AirlinePilot]

Leanan, If you do an informal poll of just say your friends and neighbors, I bet you a bottle of your favorite imbibement that at least 60-70% dont believe we are anywhere near the peak. To them everything is fine and all those little wells in west Texas will be uncapped as the price goes higher and everything will be fine.

I actually know intelligent people who believe that is the case.

Folks just dont believe it. They are in serious denial and will use any excuse to dodge the true reality.

[Leanan]

I am confident that an informal poll of my friends and neighbors would reveal that they don't even know what "peak oil" is, and have never even given it a thought.

[Bleep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'I') am confident that an informal poll of my friends and neighbors would reveal that they don't even know what "peak oil" is, and have never even given it a thought.

[strider3700]

My favorite argument is that the US has been using up everyone elses oil lately and not it's own. thats why they import so much of it. If there is any shortage they'll just start pumping their own oil.

[Cynus]

I remember the shock that learning about PO was to me several years ago and how I felt like I had been punched in the stomach for a month or so. I can't imagine what it will be like when hundreds of millions of people get that feeling all at once.

[NeoPeasant]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cynus', 'I') remember the shock that learning about PO was to me several years ago and how I felt like I had been punched in the stomach for a month or so. I can't imagine what it will be like when hundreds of millions of people get that feeling all at once.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') can't imagine what it will be like when hundreds of millions of people get that feeling all at once.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', 'M')y favorite argument is that the US has been using up everyone elses oil lately and not it's own. thats why they import so much of it.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '.')..all those little wells in west Texas will be uncapped as the price goes higher and everything will be fine...

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')This appears to be a very pervasive myth here in 'Murica.

Talk about grasping at straws...

[strider3700]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', 'M')y favorite argument is that the US has been using up everyone elses oil lately and not it's own. thats why they import so much of it.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', '
') the fact that it still has a gallon jug stashed away in the trunk doesn't make any difference in the long run