by pup55 » Mon 19 Feb 2007, 23:55:43
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You have two problems:
One is, you are going to have to get people out of their present cars. The longer you take to do this, the less the savings.
The other problem is much bigger: If the auto fleet grows exactly as fast as the population (about 1.5% per year, which is the current growth rate), by approximately 2050, there will be twice as many cars as there are now. So, effectively, by then, you will be using the same amount of gas that you are right now, even if you did somehow manage to convert the whole fleet from 30 mpg cars over to these 60 mpg Lancias.
You can keep ahead of the curve (temporarily) by making Lancias more efficient over time. On average, the rate of improvement in efficiency will have to be greater than the rate of the growth of the fleet, or eventually, the numbers will catch up with you.
But, more likely, diminishing returns will catch up to you. You will reach a limit on how efficient you can make a Lancia.
So, what this all comes down to is that at some point in the day, you are going to have to tell someone they are not going to be able to drive. You can wait around until 2050 if you want, or you can do it today, it makes no difference.
No, I take it back, it does make a difference. If you wait until 2050 to do it, you will tick off twice as many people as you would if you did it today. Also, the global warming types will argue that today is better as well.