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peakoil is not a problem

How to save energy through both societal and individual actions.

peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby bonjaski » Mon 19 Feb 2007, 22:52:44

i would like to share my experience

i bought a lancia musa 1.3 multijet 90PS,

http://www.lanciamusa.it/

a great car in every aspect.

i now used it for the first 5500km and i only consume 3.8 liter diesel on 100km
~60mpg

i don't drive in cities and usually i don't drive faster then 100km/hour.

everyone could do that (not a great deal),

so with that and that a lot of transport could be done with trains.
i think its its easy to live very well with only 50% of todays oil consumption.

Additionally we can (already with todays technology) substitute 50% of that with biofuels.


so where is the problem?


that 2030 we won't have 30mio barrels and 30mio barrels of biofuels?
(with that and 60mpg even 100mio of chinese and 100mio of indians can drive)

that 2060 we won't have 15mio barrels and some improvements in biofuels?

that we need oil for biofuels?

that the EROEI of biofuels is negative ?

all things that even at peakoil.com were proven to be wrong,


so peakoil is not a problem.

for one interested in economics and science its an interesting event ...
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby Zardoz » Mon 19 Feb 2007, 22:59:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonjaski', '.')..it's an interesting event...

It's going to be the most "interesting" event in the history of the human race.
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby dinopello » Mon 19 Feb 2007, 23:06:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonjaski', '.')..it's an interesting event...

It's going to be the most "interesting" event in the history of the human race.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ay you live in interesting [s]event [/s]times.
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 19 Feb 2007, 23:55:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '6')0mpg

You have two problems:

One is, you are going to have to get people out of their present cars. The longer you take to do this, the less the savings.

The other problem is much bigger: If the auto fleet grows exactly as fast as the population (about 1.5% per year, which is the current growth rate), by approximately 2050, there will be twice as many cars as there are now. So, effectively, by then, you will be using the same amount of gas that you are right now, even if you did somehow manage to convert the whole fleet from 30 mpg cars over to these 60 mpg Lancias.

You can keep ahead of the curve (temporarily) by making Lancias more efficient over time. On average, the rate of improvement in efficiency will have to be greater than the rate of the growth of the fleet, or eventually, the numbers will catch up with you.

But, more likely, diminishing returns will catch up to you. You will reach a limit on how efficient you can make a Lancia.

So, what this all comes down to is that at some point in the day, you are going to have to tell someone they are not going to be able to drive. You can wait around until 2050 if you want, or you can do it today, it makes no difference.

No, I take it back, it does make a difference. If you wait until 2050 to do it, you will tick off twice as many people as you would if you did it today. Also, the global warming types will argue that today is better as well.
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby Jack » Tue 20 Feb 2007, 00:16:19

Thread moved to "conservation" from "peak oil discussion".

Reason: content of original posting.

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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby Revi » Tue 20 Feb 2007, 00:31:46

I agree with the original poster. We can have a decent life with half the fossil fuels. We've done it in our household. Click on the symbol with the little house and www below to see our energy saving projects. The problem is getting others to follow. They seem determined to use more, not less even if it bankrupts them. Eventually I'd like to see people using cars like these:

www.sunnev.com

If we switched to lightweight solar charged transportation, there would be no crisis. We could use high speed trains between cities. In an ideal world there would be no problems with peak oil. Unfortunately people will freak out when they can't get as much fossil fuel. There will be a painful transition period, but it's inevitable. We'll be out of our cars by mid-century at the latest.

If you told somebody in 1907 that in a few years the Model T would make it possible for the average person to own a car they would have laughed. It's 2007, and in just a few years something is going to happen to the car. Maybe something better will come along. Let's hope so, or we'll all be walking.
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby ReserveGrowthRulz » Tue 20 Feb 2007, 00:38:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonjaski', '
')so peakoil is not a problem.

for one interested in economics and science its an interesting event ...


Another exceptional individual. Feel free to hang around, and we'll try and convert these heathens together.

What is obvious to us apparently takes a WEE bit of effort for the less talented. But we shall persevere! If only because we're 18 months post peak ( according to THEIR prophets ) and guess what? Nobody much has noticed.....not even them.
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Tue 20 Feb 2007, 00:39:53

Hi.

Well, biofuels are and will not be as efficient a source of energy as oil which indicates that they should be more expensive than oil.
Well, actually, why not hope that nothing better than cars come along so most eveyone will be walking?
g
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby master_rb » Tue 20 Feb 2007, 00:47:28

i have exactly the same opinion, there is so much room for conservation, only the price will force people to do that

we have people coming and picking up a few dvd's with ford explorers, do we need to drag a 3 ton monster to get a dvd?

getting along with the 50% of our today's usage can be done but people need to be responsible, it won't happen till the price of oil goes really high

i'm just scared of the markets reactions when the PO arrives, with energy constraint on, it's going to be hard to find investors, it might turn out to be another 1929, with this economic system anything is possible, today even a bomb exposion somewhere makes the markets nervous, with PO on it might turn out to be a disaster, we could get through with PO on for a long time if people were preparing for it and we had a different economic system but with the way it is now anything is possible
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby snax » Tue 20 Feb 2007, 01:32:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'H')i.

Well, biofuels are and will not be as efficient a source of energy as oil which indicates that they should be more expensive than oil.

Being a domestic product for the US anyway, there is at least one layer of middle men cut out of the pricing structure with reduced cost of delivery.

The bottom line is that biofuels are sold today at prices that are comparable to petrol fuels by independent startups who are presumeably making enough money to stay in business. That seems to suggest the efficiency issue is less efficacious to price than you believe it should be.
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby max_power29 » Tue 20 Feb 2007, 03:22:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('snax', '
')The bottom line is that biofuels are sold today at prices that are comparable to petrol fuels by independent startups who are presumeably making enough money to stay in business. That seems to suggest the efficiency issue is less efficacious to price than you believe it should be.


Yeah! Government subsidies sure are good at making bioscams "efficient".

*sarcasm*Those start-ups sure are independent!*sarcasm*

Let the inflation and starvation begin!
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby Taskforce_Unity » Tue 20 Feb 2007, 06:03:37

Bonjaski, from the perspective of physics your observation is correct, there is much room for savings. The first flaw is that you are not looking at it from a global perspective. The 3 billion people that want cars cannot save from their current consumption, since they do not yet consume.

The second flaw is that you ignore human psychology, We do not want to drive smaller cars that are more efficient.
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby Concerned » Tue 20 Feb 2007, 07:22:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonjaski', '
')so peakoil is not a problem.

for one interested in economics and science its an interesting event ...


Another exceptional individual. Feel free to hang around, and we'll try and convert these heathens together.

What is obvious to us apparently takes a WEE bit of effort for the less talented. But we shall persevere! If only because we're 18 months post peak ( according to THEIR prophets ) and guess what? Nobody much has noticed.....not even them.


Well I don't know about phrophets but the stuff I've been reading says 2010-12.

Stay tuned.
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby peripato » Tue 20 Feb 2007, 08:14:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonjaski', 's')o where is the problem?

That peak oil is not just about liquid transportation fuels. Its biggest impact may well be on agricultural production at all levels. Ironically this impact may well be compounded in large part from a massive biofuels production effort.
That long-term efficiency savings and conversation are probably incompatible with a growth economy, and definitely incompatible with an exponentially growing population which will eat away at any such gains within a few short years.
That peak oil is just the thin edge of the wedge. There are many converging disasters looming over the horizon leaving little room for optimism.
The optimism, or rather complacency, apparent in your argument also pervades all levels of leadership from government to private enterprise to the media. It is a form of denial, and is strongly suggests that we will in all likelihood sleepwalk our way right into the path of at least one of those looming catastrophes.
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby bonjaski » Tue 20 Feb 2007, 09:26:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonjaski', 's')o where is the problem?

That peak oil is not just about liquid transportation fuels. Its biggest impact may well be on agricultural production at all levels. Ironically this impact may well be compounded in large part from a massive biofuels production effort.
That long-term efficiency savings and conversation are probably incompatible with a growth economy, and definitely incompatible with an exponentially growing population which will eat away at any such gains within a few short years.
That peak oil is just the thin edge of the wedge. There are many converging disasters looming over the horizon leaving little room for optimism.



i know that there are many issues beyond transport

but transportation accounts for 70% of oil use,
only a fraction ges into industry

not only my use of diesel nearly halfed,
we don't use oil,gas to heat our house
(we use central heating power from wood)

1,5% growth in car use, will be indeed a problem,
but i don't think that in india, china, brasil car use will grow forever,

maybe china and india will introduce some limits like London or Singapur (they have overpopulated areas)

and i am a friend of high gasoline price

5$ per gallone won't kill us, but maybe save the world and our way of living

sorry for my english and my optimism,
but this my experience with my car and heating of our house changed my view a lot

i had more fears before
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby Revi » Tue 20 Feb 2007, 12:32:36

It seems like once we start to something about the problem, our fears melt away. I agree. I still think that peak oil is a problem, but since we are doing something about it, it doesn't seem like the monster it once was. It's coming, but we are a little more prepared for it, with our lifestyle changes.

If only we could get our government to take it serously and start to prepare people, there might not be as big a problem in a few years. If they just got people to switch their electric water heaters and got people into smaller cars that would help a lot.
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby Concerned » Tue 20 Feb 2007, 16:27:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonjaski', '
')
but transportation accounts for 70% of oil use,
only a fraction ges into industry

not only my use of diesel nearly halfed,
we don't use oil,gas to heat our house
(we use central heating power from wood)


Your optimism is refreshing I must admit. Thank you.

Transportation is an industry and a very important one. It's even been estimated that 1 in 10 jobs in the US is associated with cars, this includes things such as mechanics, body repair shops, wheeles & tyres, insurances, glass, auto electrics, exhaust repair etc.. you name it. The infrastructure built to maintain the car fleet is massive.

If we get to the point of global terminal hydrocarbon decline, you're on a slippery slope to economic devestation. Ironically the ability to substitute say wood pelletts for heating or natural gas in a motor vehicle will only make things worse when the final crunch comes, people have made changes and there will be no further easy changes to make.

I've heard alot about Nuclear, Tar Sands, Oil Shale and Coal. Im not disputing the energy abundence of these resources, the challenge is can they scale up fast enough to keep what we have ("the economy") and keep it growing? Because everyone knows how important growth is.

I don't see any meaningful change in our chose path until it's really going to be too late. Even today right now China is planning another 500 coal fired power plants a massive investment compared to their Nuclear plans for example.
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 20 Feb 2007, 17:00:49

I'm mainly concerned about all the jobs that depend on cheap petroleum, and what those people (including me) will do for a living....

Our vendors now print in their catalogs "due to dramatic fluctuations in petroleum derivatives, we reserve the right to increase the prices of some of our products." This has an effect on our bottom line. Higher prices mean we have to charge more, eventually, we may not be able to pass along such price increases and continue to get orders.
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 21 Feb 2007, 01:11:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonjaski', ' ')
i don't drive in cities and usually i don't drive faster then 100km/hour.

everyone could do that (not a great deal),

so with that and that a lot of transport could be done with trains.
i think its its easy to live very well with only 50% of todays oil consumption.

Additionally we can (already with todays technology) substitute 50% of that with biofuels.


so where is the problem?


Connect the dots. What if everybody did that? What would we do for work as our conservation eliminates our jobs?

Get new jobs doing something else?

Connect the dots. We gave up our jobs so that supply could meet demand through conservation. There is no energy for new jobs.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: peakoil is not a problem

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 21 Feb 2007, 01:16:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') agree with the original poster. We can have a decent life with half the fossil fuels. We've done it in our household.


Sure, conservation seems ideal at the individual level, but if everybody did it, we would conserve our way right out of our jobs.

Wasted, or poorly used, energy does not go down some rathole, it employs millions, it drives GDP growth.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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