Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Question about my fellow americans

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby Dry » Tue 01 Jan 2008, 03:18:38

Putting all Political Correctness aside for a moment.

I was thinking about what areas of the country would do the best in a society collapse peak oil situation. Barring another country invading us what would the scene be like is different area of the country.
The people down in Katrina land really did not impress me with their self reliance and helping out their neighbors. It looked like a scene from Dante's Inferno. Looting , gangs, guns. I have seen pics of two female POLICE ! officers who were looting as well. This was only after a few days.

Other disasters in other area the communities seemed to band together and help each other more. Obviously main factors are religion, family, education, community sense, wealth (or lack of)

I guess all city and population centers are to be avoided. my .02 opinions anyone?
User avatar
Dry
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 23
Joined: Mon 10 Dec 2007, 04:00:00

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby timbo » Tue 01 Jan 2008, 17:04:32

There are no good places to be. The horde will move wherever rumour has it that things are better, plunder it and move on :(
User avatar
timbo
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 159
Joined: Sat 13 May 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Australia

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby gg3 » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 08:55:45

Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and parts of upstate New York: The local cultures are strong on self reliance and community spirit. Lots of small towns. Climate change won't render the place unsuitable for agriculture. Terrain discourages badguy incursions.

Same case obtains in some other parts of the US, for example rural parts of the Pacific Northwest, possibly the Great Lakes region.

The Southeast will be hit hard by climate change. The Southwest will be hit even harder and become basically uninhabitable (byebye Phoenix). The tornado belt will be shredded by more intense tornados and more of them, and PO will reduce the ability to rebuild so people will tend to move out of there. Florida and the Gulf Coast will become uninhabitable due to more intense hurricanes and summer heat.

Major Northeastern cities will probably survive, plus or minus crime waves, and public works projects to keep the rising oceans out. Perhaps the public works projects will create enough employment to keep the crime down.

The central plains aside from the tornado zones are already stretched in terms of water supply. Expect major agriculture to shift northward into Canada, and expect Canada to gain political leverage thereby.

All in all, expect migrations.

As for looters etc., expect them to be culled from the herd. Locals will establish perimeter protection to keep roving mobs out.

Do not let yourself become a displaced person during a disaster. Citizens have rights, but refugees are "tolerated" and that only barely. Make your moves before the poo hits the propeller, and get yourself established and well-connected to the local scene in your new area. Keep in mind such factors as local tribalism in the form of religious prejudices, ideological extremism, and so on. Pick wisely and build well.
User avatar
gg3
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 3271
Joined: Mon 24 May 2004, 03:00:00
Location: California, USA

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby timbo » Mon 07 Jan 2008, 19:18:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'V')ermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and parts of upstate New York: The local cultures are strong on self reliance and community spirit. Lots of small towns. Climate change won't render the place unsuitable for agriculture. Terrain discourages badguy incursions.

Same case obtains in some other parts of the US, for example rural parts of the Pacific Northwest, possibly the Great Lakes region.

The Southeast will be hit hard by climate change. The Southwest will be hit even harder and become basically uninhabitable (byebye Phoenix). The tornado belt will be shredded by more intense tornados and more of them, and PO will reduce the ability to rebuild so people will tend to move out of there. Florida and the Gulf Coast will become uninhabitable due to more intense hurricanes and summer heat.

Major Northeastern cities will probably survive, plus or minus crime waves, and public works projects to keep the rising oceans out. Perhaps the public works projects will create enough employment to keep the crime down.

The central plains aside from the tornado zones are already stretched in terms of water supply. Expect major agriculture to shift northward into Canada, and expect Canada to gain political leverage thereby.

All in all, expect migrations.

As for looters etc., expect them to be culled from the herd. Locals will establish perimeter protection to keep roving mobs out.

Do not let yourself become a displaced person during a disaster. Citizens have rights, but refugees are "tolerated" and that only barely. Make your moves before the poo hits the propeller, and get yourself established and well-connected to the local scene in your new area. Keep in mind such factors as local tribalism in the form of religious prejudices, ideological extremism, and so on. Pick wisely and build well.


Agree with most of this. However the hordes I refer to may be quite large 20-30,000 at least initially. Later on they may be rogue military units.
User avatar
timbo
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 159
Joined: Sat 13 May 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Australia

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby TheTurtle » Mon 07 Jan 2008, 20:09:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'V')ermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and parts of upstate New York: The local cultures are strong on self reliance and community spirit. Lots of small towns.


Looks like someone has been reading too much Kunstler, gg3. :P
“Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.” (Ted Perry)
User avatar
TheTurtle
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1905
Joined: Sat 14 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Along the banks of the muddy Mississippi

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby mmasters » Mon 07 Jan 2008, 20:30:28

Many have hyped the Pacific Northwest though according to the USGS it is geologically the most dangerous spot on Earth!
User avatar
mmasters
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2272
Joined: Sun 16 Apr 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Mid-Atlantic

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby timbo » Tue 08 Jan 2008, 04:30:34

Invade Canada :)

Just not the bit around Fort McMurray, Alberta ;)
User avatar
timbo
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 159
Joined: Sat 13 May 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Australia

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby Duende » Fri 01 Feb 2008, 15:07:18

I believe that good farmland and readily available freshwater sources will be critical when the "2,500 mile caesar salad caravan" comes to an end.

Therefore, I think the Great Lakes area offers great opportunity post peak, barring rustbelt cities' downtowns and suburbs.

There is no hope for the southwest. Some people could make it I suppose, but you simply cannot grow enough food locally to support Phoenix. Goodbye.

Further, I can imagine that population density will really spread out post peak, so all these imperviously paved cities will hollow out. Talk about s p r a w l . . . . . . . . .
"Where is the man who has so much as to be out of danger?" -Thomas Huxley
User avatar
Duende
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 418
Joined: Sat 27 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: The District

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby NeoLotus » Fri 01 Feb 2008, 17:13:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timbo', '
')Agree with most of this. However the hordes I refer to may be quite large 20-30,000 at least initially. Later on they may be rogue military units.


If anyone can organize 20-30,000 people into a "horde" they've got some real talent. I don't see it happening.
-We don't need an ownership society,
we need a 'give-a-shit' society!
------------------------
-Making judgments without intellectual justification is prejudice.
-We do not act rightly because we have virtue, we have virtue because we act rightly.
User avatar
NeoLotus
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 121
Joined: Tue 25 Jan 2005, 04:00:00
Location: MN

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby timbo » Sun 03 Feb 2008, 15:20:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoLotus', '.')..If anyone can organize 20-30,000 people into a "horde" they've got some real talent. I don't see it happening.


I didn't say anything about real cohesion or longevity. Just a whole lot of stupid aggreived people with guns. Doesn't take much in the way of leadership to kick off a riot. A plague of locusts isn't organised in any formal way but they are really destructive. As for a small community fending them off, maybe but at what cost 5 - 10 lives each time.

I'd love to see Heinberg's orderly descent scenario but I'm afraid that most people just ain't that smart.
User avatar
timbo
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 159
Joined: Sat 13 May 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Australia

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby timbo » Sun 03 Feb 2008, 15:37:36

The other alternative and maybe even more probable scenario is a police state. At least initially and they will have the army to do their bidding :(
User avatar
timbo
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 159
Joined: Sat 13 May 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Australia

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby cube » Sun 03 Feb 2008, 19:50:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dry', 'P')utting all Political Correctness aside for a moment.

I was thinking about what areas of the country would do the best in a society collapse peak oil situation.
When you say "collapse" I'm assuming a post Soviet Union style scenario which will be the near term effects of PO. MOST people on this board wouldn't survive a Mad Max scenario so I won't go into it. Not to sound like I'm trying to avoid the question but I do NOT think there is any place that can really have an advantage over others. I think it depends on the individual. There are 4 basic types of people in a collapse scenario:

1) Hard working frugal folks with a strong will: farmers, soldiers, the working poor. These folks can survive in any environment because there is always a shortage of "hard working and reliable" people thus a demand. And since they have always lived a frugal life what is there to worry about?

2) The squishy people who lived off the fat of the system: Stock brokers, real estate agents, university professors who have tenure. If you've never had it "hard" in life you probably fall into this group. If you drink Starbucks coffee you probably fall into this group.

3) "Traders": yes I made that up. These folks are the most difficult group to describe. What separates them from 2) is they have an uncanny sense of how to make money no matter what happens. If the city catches on fire these folks buy up all the remaining lumber and sell it back for 400% profit as the city needs raw materials to rebuild. See what I mean? These folks survive on their wits. Not all traders are "profiteers" some do honest work......but most importantly, profitable work!

What group do you fit into? :wink:
cube
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3909
Joined: Sat 12 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby FreakOil » Sun 03 Feb 2008, 20:40:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'V')ermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and parts of upstate New York: The local cultures are strong on self reliance and community spirit. Lots of small towns. Climate change won't render the place unsuitable for agriculture. Terrain discourages badguy incursions.


This was very pleasant to read. I have family in small towns in all the states that you mentioned. My heart tells me the Adirondacks are the place to go. My great-uncle lived up there his whole life, hunting deer and black bear and catching lake trout by the dozen. I think I'm just being silly and romantic - I'm no hermit. But still ...
User avatar
FreakOil
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 473
Joined: Sun 04 Mar 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Hong Kong
Top

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 03 Feb 2008, 21:51:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')What group do you fit into? :wink:



"squishy"
Ludi
 
Top

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby topcat » Mon 04 Feb 2008, 00:30:09

Just wondering:

What is the fourth type???

Cube wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen you say "collapse" I'm assuming a post Soviet Union style scenario which will be the near term effects of PO. MOST people on this board wouldn't survive a Mad Max scenario so I won't go into it. Not to sound like I'm trying to avoid the question but I do NOT think there is any place that can really have an advantage over others. I think it depends on the individual. There are 4 basic types of people in a collapse scenario:
"No workey, no beef jerkey." TC

"Home is where the hot dogs are." TC
User avatar
topcat
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 626
Joined: Wed 01 Feb 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Northern US
Top

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby cube » Mon 04 Feb 2008, 03:21:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('topcat', 'J')ust wondering:

What is the fourth type???

Cube wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen you say "collapse" I'm assuming a post Soviet Union style scenario which will be the near term effects of PO. MOST people on this board wouldn't survive a Mad Max scenario so I won't go into it. Not to sound like I'm trying to avoid the question but I do NOT think there is any place that can really have an advantage over others. I think it depends on the individual. There are 4 basic types of people in a collapse scenario:
oops my mistake....that was a misprint.

There is of course the ruling elites. For the most part in the USA people in high position got where they are through their wits so by default that makes them group 3). In some countries where people are born into a high position rather than working for it I would make a 4th group.

Perhaps I'm oversimplifying by trying to lump everybody into 3 easy groups.

here's a good read:
Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century by Dmitry Orlov
http://www.survivingpeakoil.com/article ... et_lessons

In the post Soviet scenario the author mentions a special class of people..."Hired guns". These folks have lived a life of violence so they're used to it: gangsters and war veterans for example. They don't have that many job skills aside from hurting people. Maybe they can be a 4th group? However the USA is very different from Russia in that we have a very strong "gun culture". If things go south everybody is going to be walking around with a gun like in the wild west so maybe that neutralizes everything? who knows?
cube
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3909
Joined: Sat 12 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby Roy » Mon 04 Feb 2008, 09:37:50

My answer is find an area where the majority of the inhabitants look like you, think like you, and talk like you. Don't be an oddball or an outsider if you expect to be able to integrate, like other posters have suggested.

Second, find an area with plenty of arable land and available water, with a relatively low population density, that is some miles from major urban areas.

I went to a CCW permit class last Saturday at the VFD/community center here, and there were 61 people attending. That had to be the majority of residents in this area. It was reassuring to me. My wife, OTOH, found the high attendance number alarming.

I think the book "Strategic Relocation" by Joel Skousen is very informative on the topic and offers lots of data and analysis on the United States.
Roy
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1359
Joined: Fri 18 Jun 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Getting in touch with my Inner Redneck

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby timbo » Mon 04 Feb 2008, 16:23:04

Low profile, strong community links. You should be doing your neighbours favours now.
User avatar
timbo
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 159
Joined: Sat 13 May 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Australia

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby Pops » Mon 04 Feb 2008, 18:07:49

It seems to me the thing to realize is becoming an integral part of ones' community is the key.

Either do that where you stand or go where you feel your skills will be of value.

We moved to Tornado Alley and though it has a fairly sorted past, folks seem to value others who exhibit a little self-reliance.

It is East of the tree-line, south of the 200-day growing line with 35+ inches of rain.

I’m thinking either make your place right, make your move or sit here and tap …
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: Question about my fellow americans

Unread postby Anthrobus » Mon 04 Feb 2008, 19:26:19

hello americans

something probably hardly thought about:

expect towns to get walls and ditches and watchtowers, built by forced labour. No need for you americans to visit europe any more.

seriously, a town close by might offer protection for you would be farm-workers. Stocks can be safely stored and protection and defense might be guaranteed in times of marauding hoardes. Plus the possible variety of craftsmen and even artists in a town may be helpful to maintain some civilisation (and some powerful arms).

I personally sometimes dream of being a kind of raw materials seeker, assigned to scavenge a ruined giant city. I would know every corner of it and on request from someone well off, preferable with a pretty daughter (we need some IT-equipment, metals, books tools) i would again set out into the wasted danger zone, no one dares to enter, save me and maybe some true servant.
The mouse, i`ve been sure for years, limps home from the site of the burning ferris wheel with a brand new, airtight plan for killing the cat.

J. D. Salinger
Anthrobus
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 134
Joined: Mon 12 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Germany

Next

Return to North America Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

cron