[rsch20]

I want to title this thread 'why am I alive at this point in history', or something like that but I don't think it adequately conveys what I'm trying to express.

no, I don't think i'm jesus, what I'm trying to express is more of a feeling i've had all through my life of somehow being a 'witness' or something... undefinable. some purpose i'm not fully (or even partially) comprehending.

before I even start discussing what the topic is about, I need to relate my views/experience, and this is going to be a hell of a long post. I will meander accross points and still not be able to fully explain what I'm trying to get accross, so please bear with me.


I approached peak oil, from a somewhat unique perspective (from what I've read here of most others experiences with PO) so let me relate:

Peak Oil was not a earthshaking revelation for me as it has been for others, because i had already had my world shaken, by the concept of Omega Point/The Singularity.

in short, Omega Point is exponential growth in technology, which is predicted to go vertical somewhere around 2040, beyond which point we are unable to frame any sort of reference of what things will be like.

read this thread: http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic13199.html for a longer explanation if you don't know what i'm referring to.

omega point is not necessarily a beneficial (to humans) event, we have no concept of what it will be like so any predictions swiftly become ludicrous. even by itself it's a worrying concept. (please don't debate the merits of omega point in this thread, i don't want that to be the main focus, if you think it's b.s. post that opinion in the linked thread, for this discussion just accept that I accept the concept, and am relating it as part of my state of mind).

so, after finding out about omega point (OP), I had many of the same reactions people describe when talking about PO, worry depression etc, I didn't go through any denial, it did lead me to start doing increased research on world topics, leading me through 911 conspiracy etc till I found PO, which I pretty much instantly accepted, since I had already gone through many of the same thoughts that naturally arise already though it was a somewhat different experience to me.

PO is of course pretty much all negative in its aspects, so despite OP not being a necessarily positive event, by virtue of not definetly being negative it has become in my mind, weighted against PO, a race to see which comes first, with OP becoming the 'finish line'. when I found out about PO I immediately started thinking in terms of 'hmm, so whats going to happen first then'

since OP would basically be the next step in the worlds 'evolution' (i use the term loosely) I think it can only be a desired outcome when set against the future that PO and global warming etc offer. even if humans are obsoleted in the process it can only be a good thing in my view for life and intelligence to reach it's next step of evolution, rather than spinning out of control. refer to this link: http://yudkowsky.net/tmol-faq/tmol-faq.html which explains the 'meaning of life' to be for us to create our successors. it's a good argument and pretty accurately reflects why I hold OP to be the 'salvation' that could possibly usurp PO.

now, I know that all through history people have thought they were living in end times, because of that I always disregarded thoughts of anything happening in this time period, things seemed so stable etc, nuclear war was the threat I grew up under but I was never very concerned about the cold war. I reasoned that people wouldn't do anything that insane, and they didn't. of course now it has returned as a threat again and i'm not so sanguine this time, but I stray off point.

after finding out about OP and PO, I have of course thought about the ramifications of possibly being in the actual end times, and how I have been brought to this state of mind that is usually reserved for those with religious fervor, by logic and science.

before going further I need to mention that I view myself as 'agnostic', I hold organized religions in contempt, but am still open to the possibility that there either may be a god, or that we may shortly create one (or many).

my post in this thread: http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic17944-45.html expands on my views on religion.

so, at this point, I find myself facing the strong probability that I am in 'end times' despite being non-religious, and some of the more existential thoughts that I seemed to be constantly plagued with are taking on new dimensions for me.

I've always wondered about why i'm here, what the purpose is etc. always pondered on what the nature of reality is, why am I me?

I guess what I'm describing, is that feeling that everyone has, that you are 'special', somehow unique, as lewis black would say 'we are all snowflakes'. I've had this feeling a lot, previously I always discounted it as not rational, it's getting harder to justify that position though.


I read the threads concerning the myers-briggs test results for this forum yesterday. took it myself and came up INTP, and come to find out that most of the people that visit this forum (and yes arguably, most forums) fit a certain profile (introspective, intelligent, etc etc). that I am in this profile, and that collectively we only make up 1% of the population.

I think this new information is part of whats prompting this post, not only have I come to the conclusion that I am probably living in 'end times', but now I find out that it also seems that possibly I am in fact special in some way. there are threads that skirt this issue, 'why do we get it and others are in such denial' etc.

Additionaly, I find myself thinking of things in terms even most PO'ers aren't considering, since OP is not as widely accepted here as PO is, (though I know a few do, like Omnitir). because of that, I feel slightly estranged, even from this group.

I would be concerned about my sanity if it wasn't for the problem that this is all grounded in reason rather than paranioa or religious thinking etc. my lines of thinking have all the hallmarks of insanity, megalomania, thinking the rest of the world is crazy instead of me etc.

it would almost be easier if I were/am insane, but I don't think thats the case, as improbable as it should be it seems as if it is in fact the case that it's the rest of the world thats lost it's mind, and that I'm one of the few sane ones.

so.... wtf?

[quizz]

Well, since you aren't asking anything specifically ...

I don't think you need to fit a profile to be aware of the problems that others are oblivious to. It's a theme found in Disney movies - like "An American Tail: Fievel Goes West". The plot goes along the lines of Fievel is aware of the cat's scheme to eat everyone and no one is listening to him. Some quick action on his part saves the day in the end. PO can move you to in position to help others - leading the way to sustainability, early adopter of solar devices, skills in gardening for example.

And you don't need to be a moonbat to know that some scheming must be going on at higher levels in government and industry (protected by national security interests or industry trade secrets, etc.) There is plenty of factual history that establishes that.

But being aware to it does mean you are different from the masses. But so is the President who is aware thanks to security briefings. And so are financial insiders who can act, react, plan accordingly. But doesn't make them genetically special.

And why would technology get out of hand? Right now we need solutions to substitute liquid fuels, provide cheap water and sewage to 3rd world, feed those people, find a sustainable population limit, etc, etc. And the best technology can do is give us a 40Gig Ipod? But alot is out of your control so why fret about those self-imploding anti-matter generators, uncontrolled nano-machines consuming all matter on earth, genetically modified bio weapons accidentally being released and a host of other things.

Just my 2 cents.

[rsch20]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('quizz', '
')
And why would technology get out of hand? Right now we need solutions to substitute liquid fuels, provide cheap water and sewage to 3rd world, feed those people, find a sustainable population limit, etc, etc. And the best technology can do is give us a 40Gig Ipod? But alot is out of your control so why fret about those self-imploding anti-matter generators, uncontrolled nano-machines consuming all matter on earth, genetically modified bio weapons accidentally being released and a host of other things.

Just my 2 cents.

[quizz]

It's not the technology that was the point of the example. It the lack of will to put it to practical and good uses. Much of technology only gets put into use when it's profitable or for military superiority. Thus the heavy sigh.

[rsch20]

well the specific types of technology that will bring about omega point are being worked on, AI, nanotech, computers, etc.

if omega point is reached, it will by default almost certainly contain the keys to all the other technologies you wish were being worked on now, not only ways to stop the environment damage but to reverse it.

also, which techs are being worked on is basically beside the point, you will agree that we are still expanding our scientific knowledge, if that continues in an exponential fashion as it has up to this point in history, then omega point will happen whether we actively try to bring it about or not (assuming we don't crash first).

[piqued]

rsch20,

I am replying to your thread to direct you to the home page of Dr Nicholas Bostrom, director of the Oxford Future of Humanity Institute.

http://www.nickbostrom.com

[rsch20]

thank you for the link. I have previous read 'the fable of the dragon-tyrant' and found it to be a powerfully moving parable. I'll definetly be reading some of the other material that I haven't seen yet. not sure where I linked to it from but it was just to that story rather than to the base of the site. theres definetly some stuff there I haven't seen, thanks again.

[jdumars]

I'll address some of the things that came to mind as I read your post that may or may not be what you are looking for.

First, I can relate to your feelings, as I have had similar ones myself. With a lot of internal reflection, I realized that many of the notions about a "post-peak world" reinforce latent internal strengths that only such a situation could bring to the fore. I am a natural leader -- but rarely seek such positions out. I am an artist but specialize in 'antiquated' arts like hand engraving. I believe in sustainable agriculture, but would probably not become a farmer myself without PO. Are you seeing my thread here? My true calling has always been to live in a world that doesn't rely on hydrocarbons. When I was young, for no obviously explainable reason, I used to take ice cold showers and walk on sharp rocks in my bare feet. I learned how to shoot/disassemble guns, survival skills, stellar cartography, built forts, had escape routes stocked with supplies out of my home, and on and on. I was just an average suburban boy, but I always felt in the core of my being that the knowledge/experience would be essential later in my life. It's almost like I sent a time capsule back to my younger self from the future saying "you need to get on this now... and NOT later." I know this sounds weird, but it has been a consistent thread in my life. One memorable moment was when Bill Clinton got elected the first time. I turned to my mom and said out of the blue "He's going to be the last legitimately elected President..." I didn't even know what I meant at the time, or why I felt that way. I just DID, and it was the same sense of (almost divine) prescience that I have felt since I was young. Right now, knowing what I know, I have this unshakable feeling like these latent skills (maybe some would describe this as a calling, divine or otherwise) will be incredibly important to the world. If these are the "end times" I feel like I've known about it... I've always been a "doomer" -- a funny anecdote to prove this point. Most toddlers' first words are "Momma" or "dada." Not so with me... Apparently, when I was a baby I refused to eat solid food, preferring to stick with the bottle. My dad had a clever idea on how to "wean" me -- he decided to put a little bit of chili pepper in my bottle so it would taste awful. Well, it was time to feed me and he set about his plan. But, when he handed me the spiked bottle I started yelling "CHARLES POISON JASON!! CHARLES POISON JASON!!" -- no lie. I never spoke a word before that.

So, I have digressed some... but that's the quid pro quo of your post I suppose.

To address the 'OP' part of your concerns, I believe that any growth requires the proper "medium" (or energy inputs) to actually occur. In basic biology there's augur and Petrie dishes. In technology, there's been a very productive growth medium available in the form of corporate and military research budgets, as well as academic institutions. However, just like Petrie dishes can suffer "contamination" from the introduction of external biological material, I believe technology has suffered the same from the introduction of corporate (and to some degree governmental/religious) influence. Technology paths that are not seen as having a direct ROI are abandoned, even if they are "technically" superior to what already exists. There are dumb examples of this like VHS v. BETA, but the underlying principle is extremely important. My take is that things like the OP and various exponentiality "laws" operate upon a fundamentally flawed set of constants. This, incidentally, is my qualm with quantum mechanics too. Constants are by nature incompatible with inherently systemless entities. They very closely match the physical world, but as they are extrapolated to their highest degrees, they break down. The OP is really a "state threshold" where the previous Boolean state is replaced by a new set of unresolved complexity. My belief is that such a state shift is impossible given the "medium" that technology is currently growing in.

[rsch20]

thanks for the reply, you are definetly skirting around the same issue I am. it reminds me of a dean koontz novel I read, it was pretty bad but the basic plot is that a 'spacecraft' comes to earth and starts abducting people en masse, it covers a single night with several protagonists that keep amazingly being able to avoid whats happening with wierd things constantly happening etc. it's all couched in sci-fi concepts but as it goes on it becomes apparent that its mostly 'evil' people getting abducted, certain good people get taken but seem happy while its happening. and the good protagonists never get taken.

cut to the end, and it is revealed to be biblical armageddon rather than an alien race, the 'spaceship' is Leviathan (picture satan in the form of the borg cube). the evil people were being whisked off to hell, good people were being 'raptured' and just enough of humanity is left to start over. the people that remain are basically perfectly tailored to form a small community, including engineers and doctors etc.

I didn't much like the story, mostly because of the standard biblical references including retribution and satan etc. but there are a couple themes that ring back to me now. like the scientific theme giving way to a religious/spiritual ending, and the 'designed community' that was called together. (and there was a lot of references to the characters being mysteriously motivated during the crisis, doing things that they didn't understand as they were doing them, but that ultimately saved their asses)

now, on to the OP stuff, yes I recognize the possibility that there first may be some physical limitation preventing us from reaching it, and that secondly corruption has infected R&D like it has every other aspect of society.

however, that still does not rule out the possibility, it's just another agent making it less likely, along with global warming, PO, nuclear war, super volcano's, asteriods, grey goo, etc etc.

the corruption of science is a valid concern, like many other areas we are doing woefully badly as a species, right now I'd give humanity a D- but that it just another potential nail in the coffin and we have a whole barrel of nails handy already. trans-humanists are very concerned about certain technologies being researched before some form of advanced AI is around to handle them. nanotechnology and the 'grey goo' threat is a popular concern and only one of many. so that gets lumped on the other side of the scale with all those other nails, and OP still sits all by its lonesome on the other end.

realistically, the odds of reaching omega point versus some other catastrophic outcome are probably like 99% in favor of disaster, and 1% in favor of omega point. it's still possible and I would say preferable to annihilation.

addressing the hard limits on exponential theorys, yes I agree they normally break down once applied to the real world, the prediction of population reaching infinity in 2023 is a good example.

an example of this argument applied to OP is 'how would humans possibly design new systems, let alone replace infrastructure in picoseconds?

in fact it is possible, the basic rebuttal is that as AI comes online (as one possible path to omega point), it will be able to assist in designing an even better AI, and so on. as the computers become better at assisting (and eventually replacing) humans at design, thereby speeding up the process. this is already observable today with CAD, programming applications, internet research etc. it is this effect which is causing moores law to accelerate.

additionally, the faster/greater the processing power of your (or any) brain is, the slower time passes subjectively. tangentially this concept is also used for a theory that proposes that even though the universe is finite (in time, 2nd law and all that says everything is winding down), it is possible to create simulations within the finite universe that last for an infinite amount of time.

in theory, those 2 factors allow the exponential rate of increase to continue, assuming only that we can create AI at all, if it is possible to create AI, then that AI will design a better version of itself, in a shorter time period, over and over, until presumably it knows/is everything.

that's my laypersons explanation of what I have read, which I will freely admit is poor, suffice to say that I have researched your argument and am still convinced that OP is a possible future with a chance that is non-zero.

rather than saying it is 'impossible', I instead say it is 'barely possible though highly unlikely' and the reasons I think it is unlikely have far more to do with our own shortcomings rather than any fault in the concept itself.

[kochevnik]

Ha !

I also felt that I was here for this particular point in history - all my life. As for the poster who claims that you don't have to be unique to grok this and then goes on to NOT grok it, I think you just proved my point - because I'm the one here who has, time after time, poll after poll pointed out the uniqueness of most of the posters here. I don't believe that ONLY us wizards get it, but this particular brand of uniqueness provides the tools to make understanding and acceptance much easier. The rest of you are using a screwdriver to pound in a nail. We got supplied with a hammer right out of the box.

Alfred Adler, the famous psychologist, had this concept called 'first memories' where he believed that the very first strong emotional experience a person remembered when they were a child was usually something that affected them for the rest of their existence. This memory usually takes place around the age of 4 or 5. For me I was 4, and my father started a job running a flyin fishing camp in the Canadian bush. I remember flying in on the bush plane (when my brother and I got sick because some genius bought us a bucket full of licorice, the pilot wanted to open the door and have us throw up outside of the plane) into northern Ontario where our nearest neighbors were 80 miles away - by snowmobile. After the bush plane experience, I remember saving the life of my 3 year old brother when he fell off the float plane dock into 10 feet of water.

My whole life has been one odd thing after another. Almost feels like I wrapped half a dozen lifetimes into one compared to most 'normal' people I talk to.

I'm not saying I'm not full of shit (cause we always bullshit ourselves the most) but there is definitely some wierd ass crap going on. What a piece of luck to watch it all play out, though, huh ?

[Wednesday]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rsch20', 'I') would be concerned about my sanity if it wasn't for the problem that this is all grounded in reason rather than paranioa or religious thinking etc. my lines of thinking have all the hallmarks of insanity, megalomania, thinking the rest of the world is crazy instead of me etc.

[Teclo]

I wonder about many people feeling they are here at this time for a reason. I always doubt that the 'end times' will be something forced upon us from outside. We as people are not cut off from influencing anything whether it's the end times or the progression of technology
Since humans don't seem to rationally consider everything at each time it's logical things build to a head and we branch off in some new direction
The people around when that happens get to help shape the world more than in most times

Martin

[EndDays]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Teclo', 'I') wonder about many people feeling they are here at this time for a reason. I always doubt that the 'end times' will be something forced upon us from outside. We as people are not cut off from influencing anything whether it's the end times or the progression of technology
Since humans don't seem to rationally consider everything at each time it's logical things build to a head and we branch off in some new direction
The people around when that happens get to help shape the world more than in most times

Martin

[Teclo]

Right, we don't know when and would be bold to claim we did considering Jesus said only the father knows!

Yet I see on Christian TV the preachers dancing and shouting about how the end times are here, this poses a pertinant question

Lets say they think it's the end times. They will then begin to take action and prepare

I go this far with their thinking, prepare. Wait for God to send angels, wait for the trumpets and wait patiently in faith

But they do not do this, they get involved in politics, they want to shape the church and most of all they don't want to wait for God

Who cares about these people?
I just think we all effect the world and some of us are getting increasingly irrational and they are corrupting Christianity as well

Then I think more... well Revelation DOES say the church will become corrupt, so I suppose we should all be acitivists in our own way and battle with any messiah complex this brings!

Martin

[drew]

Why are You here at this point in history??

It is simple really.

YOU must be a narcissist....

otherwise, like the rest of us you wouldn't matter

Drew