by MrBill » Thu 23 Nov 2006, 12:11:54
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'B')ill - the more I read your posts the less I think of your opinions on finance. You're one of these dangerous economist types who has, coincidentally, mastered all the jargon. You spew stuff like $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bill', 'F')or your guide, Moody's just upgraded the credit rating of 50 European companies today. That does not mean they are safer or less safe.
What garbage. What it means, so simply so as to be painful, is that <b>Moody's</b> thinks that investment in these companies is now safer than it was in the past, when the rating was lower.
A 10 year old could understand this. But you do some whacko analysis and come up with a conclusion that essentially amounts to "ratings don't mean safer or less safe."
Excuse me, Mr. Bill, you are an ass, and you smell of economist, which, as a group, are clueless and very dangerous because, again on point, they present an air of believability because they've mastered the jargon.
You are of course entitled to your opinions. I do not think much of your analysis either. The point being is when a rating agency upgrades 50 companies overnight it is not because they have all of a sudden become safer, but because Moody's/S&P/Fitch decided they were safer.
Just as they are criticized when they are too slow to downgrade a company and investors get burned. But of course as Enron and others have shown even investment grade companies can default as their credit riskiness rapidly deteriorates in the face of both external events and internal issues.
The fact that I just went through getting a credit rating from Moody's in 2005 mean that I am quite familiar with their methodology. And I spoke to S&P and Fitch as well before choosing Moody's.
In answer to Doly's comment there is a great body of analytical work that has been done on portfolio management theory using sub-investment grade bonds to show that the risk profile of the portfolio is substantially lower than the ratings would suggest and can enhance returns for little additional risk.
For your guide I am not an economist. I am an investment banker with over twenty years experience in many different markets and assets classes. I help manage over $2 billion in assets and $750 million in debt plus trade futures, options and derivatives with all the major investment banks and brokerage houses in London and other financial capitals. So, if I want your opinion I will ask for it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut you do some whacko analysis and come up with a conclusion that essentially amounts to "ratings don't mean safer or less safe."