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Clearing up the Jargon

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Clearing up the Jargon

Unread postby Falconoffury » Thu 16 Nov 2006, 13:38:49

After reading these forums and some others on the economy, I have to admit that I have never seen a field of study with as much jargon as finance.

Can anyone recommend any articles, websites, or books that are good for explaining the terms and how these ideas work in the economy?

I'm not surprised that the average American is horrible at managing their finances. I've been reading these boards for over a year, and I still feel like a newbie on the field of finances and the economy.
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Re: Clearing up the Jargon

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Thu 16 Nov 2006, 15:14:54

It's fairly simple:

Inflation:

The amount of purchasing power the Fed is stealing from you

Core Inflation:

The amount of purchasing power the Fed tells you it's stealing from you.

Bond, T-Bill:

A promisary note, indicating the government's intent to pay back the money you have loaned to it, in devalued dollars, with interest. See I.O.U.

Unemployment:

The number of people currently eligable for and recieving unemployment insurance. Not to be confused with Actual Unemployment.

Actual Unemployment

The number of people who are currently capable of working, but are unable to do so. Real figures are apparently classified.

Alternatively, people who are incapable of surviving on $2.15/hr before taxes, and choose alternative sources of income. See Criminals.

Gross Domestic Product:

A calculation of the collective value of everything a nation produces, including debt.

Outsourcing:

One of the processes by which foriegn holders of federal I.O.U.'s exchange those notes for products of value, specifically jobs. See also Multinational corporations, foriegn aquisitions
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Re: Clearing up the Jargon

Unread postby Pretorian » Sun 19 Nov 2006, 06:16:06

Dreamtwister, why dont you try and write more in this way? I am sure you will sell a book this way, I'd buy it.. And make a bunch of paper dollars.
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Re: Clearing up the Jargon

Unread postby tugboat » Sun 19 Nov 2006, 09:04:45

Here's a pretty good reference site:

http://www.investopedia.com/
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Re: Clearing up the Jargon

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 20 Nov 2006, 05:43:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tugboat', 'H')ere's a pretty good reference site:

http://www.investopedia.com/


Investopedia is a good quick reference. I would recommend reading The Economist cover to cover each week. It is not prefect, but it gives an excellent overview of world economic and polical events. I find it a better investment in time than the daily financial newspapers. More filtering of what is and is not important. Plus a selection of articles on topics you're not likely to pay any attention to normally, but are still illuminating. IMHO.
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Re: Clearing up the Jargon

Unread postby Scactha » Wed 22 Nov 2006, 04:47:13

Agree 100% with Mr Bill. I do the same.
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Re: Clearing up the Jargon

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 22 Nov 2006, 06:57:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Scactha', 'A')gree 100% with Mr Bill. I do the same.


I was wondering who 'the other guy' was? ; - )

What I dislike about the financial newspapers is how they attach such great importance to whatever is happening today, but usually do not put into any sort of perspective. They trumpet the latest trend, but rarely bother to go back and identify the duds that did not quite work out the way they predicted.

Occupational hazard I would say, but still have to take everything I read in the FT or WSJ with a pince of salt. Like sell side research!
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Re: Clearing up the Jargon

Unread postby Doly » Wed 22 Nov 2006, 11:16:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')What I dislike about the financial newspapers is how they attach such great importance to whatever is happening today, but usually do not put into any sort of perspective.


Agree 100%.

But from time to time you find an article that takes the long view, and when you see it, it's scary. A few days ago I read a financial article in the Herald Tribune that explained how the credit ratings of two-thirds of bonds in American companies are what's considered "below investment grade". In other words, it isn't safe to invest in them. How scary is that?
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Re: Clearing up the Jargon

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 23 Nov 2006, 05:19:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')What I dislike about the financial newspapers is how they attach such great importance to whatever is happening today, but usually do not put into any sort of perspective.


Agree 100%.

But from time to time you find an article that takes the long view, and when you see it, it's scary. A few days ago I read a financial article in the Herald Tribune that explained how the credit ratings of two-thirds of bonds in American companies are what's considered "below investment grade". In other words, it isn't safe to invest in them. How scary is that?


Doly, it isn't safe to invest in them is incorrect.

My own company has a below investment grade issuer rating even though we have a very strong balance sheet. The reasons are because we have a business with very specific risks and we are held down as well by the country rating of our parent group. That does not mean we are unsafe. It just means we face a set of special risks that banks who lend us money should be aware of.

In general a credit rating is simply the chances within one year of any one company with a certain financial profile of not being able to repay its debts fully. It might be less than 1%, 1%, 5%, 10%, etc.

However, companies are in business to make money by taking on a certain amount of risk. A high credit rating may mean too many idle assets and not enough debt, which means the company is not growing as quickly as it should and earning a lower return on those assets. This makes them a prime take-over candidate and/or lowers their share price.

A best credit rating in my opinion for a company is A. Banks maybe AA. Governments AAA. But it would make little sense for a commercial company to set aside enough assets to be rated AAA. That would be a waste of capital and capital is expensive. A company should be striving to earn an internal rate of return in the double digits or returning that money to shareholders in the form of dividends or share buy backs. I do not want the firm I am investing in sitting on piles of idle cash.

Likewise below investment grade companies may be good investments if they are growing fast and making smart investments themselves. You just have to be aware of the risks. But if you buy a portfolio of below investment grade bonds or shares of companies with that rating the overall risk in the portfolio is lower than any single credit risk. The risk of default becomes 10% / 10 = 1% instead of 10% / 1 = 10% for example.

If I am getting higher returns for taking on more risk than that 1% risk may be well worth it versus a single name with a higher credit rating but lower yields.

For your guide, Moody's just upgraded the credit rating of 50 European companies today. That does not mean they are safer or less safe. It means Moody's perception of their riskiness improved. At the end of the day you would sooner invest in a non-investment grade company that does not default than a fallen Angel which is an investment grade company that does default!
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Re: Clearing up the Jargon

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 23 Nov 2006, 12:11:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'B')ill - the more I read your posts the less I think of your opinions on finance. You're one of these dangerous economist types who has, coincidentally, mastered all the jargon. You spew stuff like $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bill', 'F')or your guide, Moody's just upgraded the credit rating of 50 European companies today. That does not mean they are safer or less safe.
What garbage. What it means, so simply so as to be painful, is that <b>Moody's</b> thinks that investment in these companies is now safer than it was in the past, when the rating was lower.
A 10 year old could understand this. But you do some whacko analysis and come up with a conclusion that essentially amounts to "ratings don't mean safer or less safe."
Excuse me, Mr. Bill, you are an ass, and you smell of economist, which, as a group, are clueless and very dangerous because, again on point, they present an air of believability because they've mastered the jargon.

You are of course entitled to your opinions. I do not think much of your analysis either. The point being is when a rating agency upgrades 50 companies overnight it is not because they have all of a sudden become safer, but because Moody's/S&P/Fitch decided they were safer.

Just as they are criticized when they are too slow to downgrade a company and investors get burned. But of course as Enron and others have shown even investment grade companies can default as their credit riskiness rapidly deteriorates in the face of both external events and internal issues.

The fact that I just went through getting a credit rating from Moody's in 2005 mean that I am quite familiar with their methodology. And I spoke to S&P and Fitch as well before choosing Moody's.

In answer to Doly's comment there is a great body of analytical work that has been done on portfolio management theory using sub-investment grade bonds to show that the risk profile of the portfolio is substantially lower than the ratings would suggest and can enhance returns for little additional risk.

For your guide I am not an economist. I am an investment banker with over twenty years experience in many different markets and assets classes. I help manage over $2 billion in assets and $750 million in debt plus trade futures, options and derivatives with all the major investment banks and brokerage houses in London and other financial capitals. So, if I want your opinion I will ask for it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut you do some whacko analysis and come up with a conclusion that essentially amounts to "ratings don't mean safer or less safe."

p.s. please do not paraphrase me unless you're going to get it right.
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Re: Clearing up the Jargon

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 23 Nov 2006, 13:26:48

Notwithstanding the fact Mr. Bill is bang on (I've been involved at arm's length in discussions with rating agencies, who I view as being legal protection rackets)......with respect to the original query and given we are talking about peak oil a good entry level text that has a nice, albeit relatively short glossary is:

Oil Company Financial Analysis in Nontechnical Language
D. Johnston, Pennwell, 1992, 328 pp
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