[Ben_CH]

Hello Peak Oilers

I have been reading in this forum since 3 years. And there have been many interesting discussions. This is really great. Thanks a lot to all.
Honestly, I have not much to add. You know, Monte Quest and similar people are really hard to argue with because they have great knowledge. And since I am number 4286428346 on this planet and not a oil expert my role is more a consuming one (or should I say a frigthened one?).

Well, one should look forward...but uhh....this is not really a nice view. With this politicians one could not expect much help or a Apollo project.

So, we are in deep sh....slime. And the fan is running on fullspeed. The Saudis have now finally a sinking production or at least not much to add to.

So, i'm trying to prepare for the slime/fan thing.
I'm asking anybody reading this for his opinion about my personal situation.

My Situation:
I live in Switzerland. We are really crowded here. Food production is about 70% of what we eat (with a highly state sponsored farm lobby and full technical work). A house with some space to walk around has a price tag of 400'000 to 800'000 Dollars. For a real farm you pay about 1-2 millions (10^6) or the ads say "only people with money should call".
I have now (or the bank has) a little, really old house in a 6000 people town. It was 200'000 SFR (160'000$) because it is so old and nobody wanted to live in. I bought it when I was daydreaming about my bright future as engineer 10 years ago. I have paid down 100'000.
Still 100'000 to go, which i can manage to pay down at about 1 year with the help of my girl friend and retirement money (which I intend to draw as long it is still there).

Here are my three options I see:

Version 1:
I pay the rest of the debt. And make the best of it afterwards.
So, in one year I have a payed house (no bank) with a very small 100m^2 garden (~1000 foot^2 if I am right). And no free money.
It is now a energy sink. I mean no thermal insulation. So I have to invest another 100'000 to 200'000 Sfr. Then (in a few years) i have a old house with many thermal bridges (because i have two neighbours whose house is built to mine) and a small garden that is fully payed.

Version 2:
An other option , I sell it and wait what happens until the first load of slime has passed. In the mean time i rent an appartment. I can save some money during this period. Which results in a higher liquidity than Version 1.

Version 3:
I sell old house and invest in a new well insulated house (which i intend to build very cheap) with some more land. That means a dept of 100'000-200'000 for several years.

Version 4:
I invest my money in somthing energy generating (whatever).

Which version would you choose?
Man thanks for your repsonses (short or long)
Ben

[Barbara]

Living in a 6000 people village in this crowded EU is surely a plus.

...Plus, you can rent some land at a cheap price (say, other 300 mq.) not far from the house and use it for a second garden. Many people living in villages used to do that, I'm sure you'll get help from your neighbors when you'll be there (do you live there already?)

About insulation, well: hubby is an architect and he swears that those "modern insulated houses" are very often badly made. Insulate your old house yourself: you can do it slowly and it will be a better work.

(About the country producing 70% of food: I think it's very good. We westerners can easily drop our food consume of 30%. Stop wasting, lower our absurd calories intake, and some gardening. Voilà your 30%.)

[Doly]

I'd personally go for 2, because it leaves all your options open. If there are any unforeseen issues, you will have the money to deal with them. You can do 3 later, in your own time, when you are certain about the new home you want. And you can spend part of your money in 4 if you like.

Option 1 isn't a bad option, either. If you are worried about the possibility of becoming unemployed in the coming economic crisis (that depends on what kind of job you have, and you haven't mentioned that), it may actually be the best one. You would have a home and be out of debt, which is the best position if you are unemployed.

I would consider option 3 as your long-term goal. That's where you want to be eventually. But if you go for it right now, you may get into too much debt and also, you may not make the best choice of new house. I wouldn't buy a new house until I was completely clear of what is exactly what I needed.

I wouldn't go for option 4 on its own. That's a good thing to do if you have some spare money, but not if you have debts to sort out. I'd consider 4 in combination with 2, or 4 after you have paid for 1 or 3.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'V')ersion 1:
I pay the rest of the debt. And make the best of it afterwards.
So, in one year I have a payed house (no bank) with a very small 100m^2 garden (~1000 foot^2 if I am right). And no free money.
It is now a energy sink. I mean no thermal insulation. So I have to invest another 100'000 to 200'000 Sfr. Then (in a few years) i have a old house with many thermal bridges (because i have two neighbours whose house is built to mine) and a small garden that is fully payed.

[Revi]

I'd say stay where you are! Insulation shouldn't cost that much! Add some solar hot water and a PV back-up system and you are styling! Here's what we have done to our old house:

http://www.msad54.org/sahs/appliedarts/ ... /index.htm

It has all cost less than $10,000 and made a huge difference in our energy consumption. We live in a town of around 10,000.

[Ben_CH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', 'L')iving in a 6000 people village in this crowded EU is surely a plus.

[Ben_CH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'I')'d personally go for 2, because it leaves all your options open. If there are any unforeseen issues, you will have the money to deal with them. You can do 3 later, in your own time, when you are certain about the new home you want. And you can spend part of your money in 4 if you like.
.

[Ben_CH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Seriously. You are not in a bad situation at all. Switzerland is still a land of relative refuge comparatively.

[Ben_CH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')'d say stay where you are! Insulation shouldn't cost that much! Add some solar hot water and a PV back-up system and you are styling! Here's what we have done to our old house:

http://www.msad54.org/sahs/appliedarts/ ... /index.htm

It has all cost less than $10,000 and made a huge difference in our energy consumption. We live in a town of around 10,000.

[loveandrage]

I'd ask how old you are, how many do you need to support (kids well being, regardless of age), and how dependant is Switzerland on imported goods.

This info would be helpful for feedback ...

cdm

[FoxV]

Hey Ben welcome to the board.

I like Version 2. Sell everything you have now while you can get some money for it and in the meantime rent and put the money in precious metals. Then sit an wait for the world to hit bottom (probably 2 - 5 years), and then buy your PO shelter dirt cheap.

I would also recommend that during this time you come to Canada. Things here are much cheaper compared to Europe, and your engineering certification will grant you immediate entry.

But what ever you do, GET THE HELL OUT OF EUROPE. With Peak oil, Climate change, and the Baby Boom retirements, Europe is going to become hell on earth. Just imagine when you're 70/30 food production becomes 30/70 and there is no place to import that 70% from.

btw, Switzerland has been a big source of money for the Carry Trade so when that ends (shortly), your currency is going to hurt big time. So securing whatever wealth you have now is of utmost importance

Good luck

[Ben_CH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('loveandrage', 'I')'d ask how old you are, how many do you need to support (kids well being, regardless of age), and how dependant is Switzerland on imported goods.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', 'H')ey Ben welcome to the board.

I like Version 2. Sell everything you have now while you can get some money for it and in the meantime rent and put the money in precious metals. Then sit an wait for the world to hit bottom (probably 2 - 5 years), and then buy your PO shelter dirt cheap.

I would also recommend that during this time you come to Canada. Things here are much cheaper compared to Europe, and your engineering certification will grant you immediate entry.

But what ever you do, GET THE HELL OUT OF EUROPE. With Peak oil, Climate change, and the Baby Boom retirements, Europe is going to become hell on earth. Just imagine when you're 70/30 food production becomes 30/70 and there is no place to import that 70% from.

btw, Switzerland has been a big source of money for the Carry Trade so when that ends (shortly), your currency is going to hurt big time. So securing whatever wealth you have now is of utmost importance

Good luck

[FoxV]

thank you for not being rude Mr Bill but...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ben_CH', 'S')witzerland is as dependent as the US, food even more (If you left out Ananas and Banana). We have some Waterpower but the US has still some oil and coal. We have zero coal. No Methanhydrate, nothing except our banks which bring in much money every year and we all profit from.
There are no goldmines, coppermines or something like that, we have only "crystal mines" for souvenirs.

[Ben_CH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', 't')hank you for not being rude Mr Bill but...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ben_CH', 'S')witzerland is as dependent as the US, food even more (If you left out Ananas and Banana). We have some Waterpower but the US has still some oil and coal. We have zero coal. No Methanhydrate, nothing except our banks which bring in much money every year and we all profit from.
There are no goldmines, coppermines or something like that, we have only "crystal mines" for souvenirs.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he last place you want to be when TSHTF is in a country with no resources other than the ability to process the bits of paper from false economies of other countries.

From Ben's testimony, Switzerland has
No energy
No natural resources
Inadequate food production
Winter climate

how many strikes do you need before you're out

[Doly]

Banking has been profitable for a long, long time. Since Roman times, at the very least. So I wouldn't expect Switzerland to fall apart.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'B')anking has been profitable for a long, long time. Since Roman times, at the very least. So I wouldn't expect Switzerland to fall apart.

[Ben_CH]

Hello

According to the positive words of MrBill, Doly, Revi and Barbara and the big astonished eyes of my girlfriend when I started talking from canada...I decided the following path:
Switzerland is a rich country. We will have a buffer compared to other countries because we can afford higher energy prices longer than a third world country. On the other side, if the problems really get serious I eventually should not stay here as correct mentioned by FoxV. Then a warm southern country would be better.

I let the mortgage be like it is (100'000 dept). I save as much money as I can (cash, not fiat money, eventually some silver) until I have these 100'000 to pay back the mortgage. So I am save and can anytime pay back the mortgage. The saved but not paid back money gives me some flexibility. Perhaps in hard times the bankers will give me a rebate when I walk in with cash (deflation scenario).
The cost for fixing things (insulation, solar) will be reduced (I will have to do many things on my own). In a step by step manner like Revi mentioned.

If something awful happens here in Europe, I take the money enter a plane (or a rowing boat) and come to canada or argentina or or .... Risk is, they have closed their borders or there are no planes available. But I should not prepare for this too, I mean, perhaps I die until then in a car accident or the heaven falls on my head or something else happens ...

At last, let me thank you for your tips and thoughts. It really helped to discuss with people which don't think talking with a fool when planning a strategy for peak oil. Most of my friends have this worried look on their faces ("Is he crazy?") when discussing these things. It is really refreshing here. Of course, if anyone has further comments, they are welcome.

Ben_CH

[FoxV]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ben_CH', 'A')ccording to the positive words of MrBill, Doly, Revi and Barbara and the big astonished eyes of my girlfriend when I started talking from canada