Life without Work This is a fun scenario to goof around with:
Tomorrow, fuel imports to the US come to a complete halt, due to a perfect storm of terrorism, weather, acts of war etc. 60% of the US oil supply (12mbd) is lost, and the US must now survive on only 8mbd -- or else start tapping reserves. Private inventories are 314 million barrels, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is 686.9 million barrels. That's a total of 1000 million barrels, which will be used up in 83.3 days, if drastic measures are not taken.
A state of emergency is declared, and the country is powered down. The number one priority is to get people with frivolous jobs to stop working and consuming energy. The only people allowed to work are those who provide absolute essentials, such as food, water, electricity, heat, phone etc. The system is totally bare-bones, and the bias is to resist any expansion of work permits.
So some people are still working, as usual. Most people, though, are laid off, and anxious because they don't have a job. The government understands this. They know they can't keep people from working without providing them some form of subsistence. A bold idea is proposed: Social Security, unemployment benefits and welfare will be suspended. Cash payments will no longer be made to beneficiaries. The trust fund will also be temporarily accessed by the government. In return, the government will purchase essential goods and services (staple foods, water, electricity etc.) and provide them to the entire U.S. population. It's crazy and "communist", but this is a crisis, and something has to be done. We simply can't drain the SPR, and at the same time, the people have to be fed. Normalcy will be restored at the soonest possible opportunity, but during the crisis, the TV says: "we would like to ask that you cooperate with the national effort to reduce working".
At first, it's really weird. The government thinks it has a big problem due to all of the governmental employees, whose salaries must be paid. But soon, even the workers themselves realize that volume in the offices is so low, that they might as well just go home, like everybody else and relax. The government stops paying these people too. Entertainment would be allowed, and even promoted, provided it didn't involve movement of people, or heavy use of energy. Sort of the "Bread and Circuses" approach.
PeakOil is You
What would happen if Everything crashed?
What would happen if Everything crashed?
by JohnDenver » Sat 02 Apr 2005, 05:15:32
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by Yavicleus » Sat 02 Apr 2005, 08:36:33
An interesting scenario...
...but you forgot to finish the story.
After a few months, years, etc. the Government itself goes bankrupt. No foreign banks will touch US bonds. The dollar, no longer being propped up by oil, has sunk to levels that would make the old Italian Lire look like an excellent investment. Finding itself in a poor position to be able to pay for all the basic necessities of the bulk of it's population, the Government forms 'work teams' just like they did during the depression.
Thousands of people are forced to do manual labor on government farms. Many of these farms have been seized from people who are unable to pay their mortgages. Alternatively, a few major companies have bought up huge tracks of farm land, and have rented it out to the government.
Thanks to the recent anti-bankrupcy laws, thousands of debt slaves will also be available to perform the much needed farming.
Guns, land, and gold will all be seized by the government because it will fear an armed populace that will be unwilling to be forced into serfdom, it will need the farming land, and it will not want any domestic competition in its currency market.
Meanwhile, with the US power grid operating at something like 50% capacity, the government has made the choice to cut off power to the countryside and suburbia. Only the cities and government installations will get power. Everyone else is left in the dark. During the first winter under this regime, what few trees suburbia did have are cut down for heating fuel, and to make room for summer crops. Eventually, people end up using dung for heating, for lack of anything else. What little remains of the middle class will be driving hybrids and scooters, but the vast majority will be riding bicycles. The rich that remain will still drive their BMW's. A few hydrogen vehicles might be in use. Maybe some biodiesel here and there. But the vast majority of folks will now be using their SUV's as immobile RV's, since they can't afford rent, and their mortgages have been forclosed.
Elections, most likely, will be canceled 'until the end of the emergency period', which will never end. Some will fight this. There might even be localized armed peasant revolts, but they will be crushed by the awsome might of the US army. The bodies of those who dissent, and those who die on the work farms will be thrown into the synthetic oil plants, to provide fuel for the Government.
Want a preview of what this might look like? Take a look at Pol Pot's regime back in the late 70's when he forced the urban populace to work the fields. Or look at China during the cultural revolution. They did the same thing.
It ain't gonna be no permanent holiday.
...but you forgot to finish the story.
After a few months, years, etc. the Government itself goes bankrupt. No foreign banks will touch US bonds. The dollar, no longer being propped up by oil, has sunk to levels that would make the old Italian Lire look like an excellent investment. Finding itself in a poor position to be able to pay for all the basic necessities of the bulk of it's population, the Government forms 'work teams' just like they did during the depression.
Thousands of people are forced to do manual labor on government farms. Many of these farms have been seized from people who are unable to pay their mortgages. Alternatively, a few major companies have bought up huge tracks of farm land, and have rented it out to the government.
Thanks to the recent anti-bankrupcy laws, thousands of debt slaves will also be available to perform the much needed farming.
Guns, land, and gold will all be seized by the government because it will fear an armed populace that will be unwilling to be forced into serfdom, it will need the farming land, and it will not want any domestic competition in its currency market.
Meanwhile, with the US power grid operating at something like 50% capacity, the government has made the choice to cut off power to the countryside and suburbia. Only the cities and government installations will get power. Everyone else is left in the dark. During the first winter under this regime, what few trees suburbia did have are cut down for heating fuel, and to make room for summer crops. Eventually, people end up using dung for heating, for lack of anything else. What little remains of the middle class will be driving hybrids and scooters, but the vast majority will be riding bicycles. The rich that remain will still drive their BMW's. A few hydrogen vehicles might be in use. Maybe some biodiesel here and there. But the vast majority of folks will now be using their SUV's as immobile RV's, since they can't afford rent, and their mortgages have been forclosed.
Elections, most likely, will be canceled 'until the end of the emergency period', which will never end. Some will fight this. There might even be localized armed peasant revolts, but they will be crushed by the awsome might of the US army. The bodies of those who dissent, and those who die on the work farms will be thrown into the synthetic oil plants, to provide fuel for the Government.
Want a preview of what this might look like? Take a look at Pol Pot's regime back in the late 70's when he forced the urban populace to work the fields. Or look at China during the cultural revolution. They did the same thing.
It ain't gonna be no permanent holiday.
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by JohnDenver » Sat 02 Apr 2005, 09:27:24
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yavicleus', 'T')housands of people are forced to do manual labor on government farms. Many of these farms have been seized from people who are unable to pay their mortgages.
That's one ending. Here's another: the government realizes it can't keep paying all these bills for food, so they simply expropriate all the food according to existing EOs. This doesn't mean that they go out and physically seize all the food; they simply declare food to be public property. This way, they can get the food for free, and they in fact, institute a law making food rations free of charge. When you're hungry, you just walk into the grocery store with your ration card and pick up some food, as usual.
Now, you may wonder why the farmers will do the work producing the food, if they don't get paid. Don't they have to make a living? Well, no actually. They're already "making a living" from the universal food/utilities dole. Granted, this may lead some farmers to be lazy, but that problem will be solved by calling for volunteers to do work related to agriculture and food distribution. These volunteers are all being supported by the universal dole, so they don't need a paycheck, and are simply helping because they enjoy the work. It's a nice break from just relaxing all the time, so there's many applicants for every volunteer position. (Remember, frivolous energy-consuming work is frowned on by the system, and working without a permit is a crime. The government is more than happy to round up lots of "work criminals", and put them in prisons where they can be put on the dole and prevented from working.) Farmers who don't want to work for free can thus be phased out in favor of farmers who don't mind working for free. The new farmers would work on the agriculture system much like programmers work on Linux. Food would become an "open-system" available to all for free, and created/maintained by hardworking volunteers.
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by spear » Sat 02 Apr 2005, 09:30:24
And then small countries start popping up with names like Texastan,Coloradostan,Mississipistan, Nevadastan,etc.
Then you´ll need a new Betsy Ross and she´s gonna be REAL busy.
Then you´ll need a new Betsy Ross and she´s gonna be REAL busy.
ΜΟΛΩΝ-ΛΑΒΕ
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by alpha480v » Sat 02 Apr 2005, 09:31:20
I agree with most of what you said Yavicleus,except the government taking the weopons away.I don't see that happenong without a magor loss of life on both the governments,and citizens part.There are millions of firearms in the peoples hands,and many will not give up their guns without a fight,myself included.
Also,this happening is assuming that the economy is still in place somewhat,with the dollar still having value.If there is no type of pay for an incentive to come into work, there will be no police reporting to work in the morning,They will most likely be home protecting their families.
Also,this happening is assuming that the economy is still in place somewhat,with the dollar still having value.If there is no type of pay for an incentive to come into work, there will be no police reporting to work in the morning,They will most likely be home protecting their families.
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by Yavicleus » Sat 02 Apr 2005, 11:18:35
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alpha480v', 'I') agree with most of what you said Yavicleus,except the government taking the weopons away.I don't see that happenong without a magor loss of life on both the governments,and citizens part.There are millions of firearms in the peoples hands,and many will not give up their guns without a fight,myself included.
Also,this happening is assuming that the economy is still in place somewhat,with the dollar still having value.If there is no type of pay for an incentive to come into work, there will be no police reporting to work in the morning,They will most likely be home protecting their families.
Also,this happening is assuming that the economy is still in place somewhat,with the dollar still having value.If there is no type of pay for an incentive to come into work, there will be no police reporting to work in the morning,They will most likely be home protecting their families.
I agree with your first statement and don't with your second. On the first, I too own several guns, and won't give them up without a fight. I totally agree that there will be bloodshed should this scenario occur. However, I don't have any pie in the sky hopes of armed citizens with hunting rifles being able to stop a major army.
On the second point, take a look at the example of Wiamar Germany. Despite incredible inflation, the police and military still did their jobs. I figure as long as they get fed and they can feed their families, they'll march to whatever orders they are given.
Needless to say, I'm not very optimistic, unfortunately.
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by Yavicleus » Sat 02 Apr 2005, 11:43:17
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'T')his doesn't mean that they go out and physically seize all the food; they simply declare food to be public property. This way, they can get the food for free, and they in fact, institute a law making food rations free of charge. When you're hungry, you just walk into the grocery store with your ration card and pick up some food, as usual.
Hmmm...possibly. I tend to be a bit skeptical of this because I doubt we will be able to produce so much food when oil based pesticides and natural gas based fertilizers become too expensive to use.
On the other hand, instead of ration cards, how 'bout you know, tattooing 666 on their right hand or their forehead, and not let anyone buy or sell food without the mark? I'm sure all the evangelicals would love that.
Also, if food is rationed, then a black market will develop for food, as it always does. And if work is banned, people will just hustle. I bet drug use and sale will go through the roof. With diminished abilities of the government to stop drug traffikers, it might be the boom industry of the 21st century!
Not to mention prostitution! Think of all the poor girls that will sell themselves into protistution due to debt slavery. It will be a good time to be a pimp.
Denver, you've got some good ideas, but I doubt they would be implemented. Mostly because they are good ideas. Too utopian. I'm placing my bets on our governments just making 'patchwork' solutions along the way, each one just delaying the inevitable, or making it worse.
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by bart » Mon 04 Apr 2005, 02:09:25
Apropos of JD's suggestion, I saw that the Japanese have been thinking along the same lines. Here's a selection from an article in the CSIRO Sustainability Network newsletter #39 (30 Apr 2004). http://www.bml.csiro.au/susnetnl/netwl39E.pdf
[quote]Japan’s ‘Slow Life’ movement: Happiness before economic efficiency
Japan – the economic powerhouse of the latter half of the 20th Century – is now experiencing its own version of the search for a more sustainable work-life balance. The following feature adapted from the Japan for Sustainability (JFS: www.japanfs.org) Newsletter (Oct 03) illustrates another “convergenceâ€
[quote]Japan’s ‘Slow Life’ movement: Happiness before economic efficiency
Japan – the economic powerhouse of the latter half of the 20th Century – is now experiencing its own version of the search for a more sustainable work-life balance. The following feature adapted from the Japan for Sustainability (JFS: www.japanfs.org) Newsletter (Oct 03) illustrates another “convergenceâ€
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by Specop_007 » Mon 04 Apr 2005, 02:25:27
A society of non workers has been tried.
Its called Communism.
And it invariably fails.
Its called Communism.
And it invariably fails.
"Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
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by JohnDenver » Mon 04 Apr 2005, 06:27:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', 'A') society of non workers has been tried.
Its called Communism.
And it invariably fails.
Its called Communism.
And it invariably fails.
Dr. M. King Hubbert must be a communist then...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Hubbert's ideas about work are even more heretical. Work is becoming, he says, increasingly unimportant. He thinks it is conceivable that the future work week might be on the order of 10 hours. Indeed, because production will have to be limited by increasingly limited mineral resources, that might be inevitable. And that, Hubbert stresses, could be the foundation of an earthly paradise.
"Most employment now is merely pushing paper around," he says. "The actual work needed to keep a stable society running is a very small fraction of available manpower."
I think modern people have some real psychiatric "issues" with the work ethic. On the face of it, you'd think that "life without work" would be a reason to celebrate and relax, but people are addicted to work, and "life without work" is a troubling, frightening concept. It's like I noted above: you would probably need brutal laws and criminalization to PREVENT people from working. That's how bad the disease is!!
Here's a related news update:
Philippines to work four days a week to save energy
I think we have to face it, folks. It's all this "working" that is sucking down the energy. I know it's unthinkable, and hard to come to grips with it, but work is the cause of energy problems, not the solution.
It may seem communist to pay people for not working, but we do it all the time. We pay farmers to leave their land idle.
Instead, why don't we pay people doing frivolous jobs (like tax preparation or sports memorabilia sales etc.) to be idle, and take away the subsidies from farmers so they produce a massive glut of food and cause food prices to drop to ridiculously low levels?
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! How can you farm when you're dead 
