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Is this the last fling or good times will continue?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Is this the last fling or good times will continue?

Unread postby KevO » Fri 11 Nov 2005, 09:38:33

Oil is way down.
Gas and Petrol prices are as low as a year ago.
Stock markets are up, up, up with the FTSE and the Dow nearly at record levels.
Crisis. What Crisis?
Is this the last fiddle do we think, or are the good times going to just keep a rollin?
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Re: Is this the last fling?

Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Fri 11 Nov 2005, 09:49:44

Could very well be, until we get some honesty from OPEC we won't know.

What we do know is that people have taken precicley ZERO notice of anything.
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Re: Is this the last fling?

Unread postby VinceG » Fri 11 Nov 2005, 09:52:46

The hurricane-season is over, so hurricanes won't have any impact any more on oil and natural gas production

Energy prices will go up in the coming weeks due to higher demands, probably 5-10%

Energy prices will NOT jump through the roof though...
"In the U.S., fears are so exaggerated and out of control that anxiety is the number-one mental health problem in the country.", Barry Glassner
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Re: Is this the last fling?

Unread postby gt1370a » Fri 11 Nov 2005, 10:17:10

Why no, by reading this article it appears that all the problems are behind us:
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/view.php?S ... 3738-4940r

Who was it that predicted that, rather than a peak, oil production would be like a sine wave? You know, price hits a ceiling, demand falls off, cushion reintroduced, price goes down, demand picks back up, price hits second ceiling, etc. Maybe we're just going through the first cycle of that...

So no, this probably isn't the last fling, there will be others.
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Re: Is this the last fling?

Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Fri 11 Nov 2005, 10:29:59

I agree in part. It will probably do this until SA peaks(yes, that's anyones' guess), then say goodnight.
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Re: Is this the last fling?

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Fri 11 Nov 2005, 10:44:51

I thought last Christmas was the last fling. :lol:
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Re: Is this the last fling?

Unread postby KevO » Fri 11 Nov 2005, 10:56:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BabyPeanut', 'I') thought last Christmas was the last fling. :lol:


Last Christmas, you gave me your heart
the very next day you took it away
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Re: Is this the last fling?

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Fri 11 Nov 2005, 10:57:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BabyPeanut', 'I') thought last Christmas was the last fling. :lol:
Last Christmas, you gave me your heart
the very next day you took it away

Last Christmas, you told me this was it
but the very next Christmas you said it again.
This year to save me from tears
I'll go out and consume away my fears.
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Re: Is this the last fling?

Unread postby Revi » Fri 11 Nov 2005, 12:51:55

the US has over 3000 bcf of natural gas in readiness, the supplies of oil and gasoline seem like they will hold up at least until x-mas, maybe it is the last fling. I'm just glad that TS won't HTF right away. Another year of preparation will help out our personal situation. Now's the time to do a few things. Let everybody else party.
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Re: Is this the last fling?

Unread postby deconstructionist » Fri 11 Nov 2005, 17:18:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gt1370a', 'W')hy no, by reading this article it appears that all the problems are behind us:
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/view.php?S ... 3738-4940r

Who was it that predicted that, rather than a peak, oil production would be like a sine wave? You know, price hits a ceiling, demand falls off, cushion reintroduced, price goes down, demand picks back up, price hits second ceiling, etc. Maybe we're just going through the first cycle of that...

So no, this probably isn't the last fling, there will be others.


how can a finite resource that is being depleted and not replenished exhibit a "sine-wave" production graph? even when demand goes down and price goes down--we are still depleting the resource. the big-picture downward slope will have its own peaks and valleys and in some way might resemble a diagonal sine wave--but make no mistakes--we are at the peak as far as big picture is concerned.
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Re: Is this the last fling?

Unread postby gnm » Fri 11 Nov 2005, 17:23:07

decon - I think thats what they were suggesting. A diagonal sine wave as it were... But peaks and valley might describe it better since the size of the waves will probably vary with the prices and economic situation...

But its still all downhill.... The relentless grinding recession.

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Re: Is this the last fling?

Unread postby deconstructionist » Fri 11 Nov 2005, 17:48:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'd')econ - I think thats what they were suggesting. A diagonal sine wave as it were... But peaks and valley might describe it better since the size of the waves will probably vary with the prices and economic situation...

But its still all downhill.... The relentless grinding recession.

-G 8O


ahh, i see... if you zoom out on the curve i'm sure it's nicely bell-shaped. if you zoom in there are peaks and valleys. it's a matter of how much detail you want to look at...

in any case, the use of detergents and water to keep well pressure up and oil production steady is going to make the down-slope much steeper anyway... instead of a bell curve peak, it's going to be more like a plateau and cliff...
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Re: Is this the last fling?

Unread postby KingM » Fri 11 Nov 2005, 20:00:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i')n any case, the use of detergents and water to keep well pressure up and oil production steady is going to make the down-slope much steeper anyway... instead of a bell curve peak, it's going to be more like a plateau and cliff...


Or maybe Peak Oil is an end-of-the-world religion, like the Jehovah's Witnesses. The faithful prepare for the apocalypse and meanwhile the world goes on its way for generation after generation after generation...
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Re: Is this the last fling?

Unread postby bruin » Fri 11 Nov 2005, 20:14:19

<quote="KingM"]$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i')n any case, the use of detergents and water tokeep well pressure up and oil production steady is going to make the down-slope much steeper anyway... instead of a bell curve peak, it's going to be more like a plateau and cliff...


Or maybe Peak Oil is an end-of-the-world religion, like the Jehovah's Witnesses. The faithful prepare for the apocalypse and meanwhile the world goes on its way for generation after generation after generation...[/quote]

Nobody here is woshiping oil depletion.

We're just getting ready for it.
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Re: Is this the last fling?

Unread postby Wildwell » Fri 11 Nov 2005, 20:29:34

*Puts cheesy bites away, collects coffee cups, goes to fetch mop*

Sorry folks, Campbell got it wrong again. He had too much of that Irish Guinness and slipped on the PC keyboard. The Peak oil date is now 2027 not 2007…Damn 2 key. Nothing to worry about just yet folks - You’re now free to leave the building….taxis have been ordered.
Last edited by Wildwell on Sat 12 Nov 2005, 06:06:04, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is this the last fling?

Unread postby gt1370a » Fri 11 Nov 2005, 21:36:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deconstructionist', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'd')econ - I think thats what they were suggesting. A diagonal sine wave as it were... But peaks and valley might describe it better since the size of the waves will probably vary with the prices and economic situation...

But its still all downhill.... The relentless grinding recession.

-G 8O


ahh, i see... if you zoom out on the curve i'm sure it's nicely bell-shaped. if you zoom in there are peaks and valleys. it's a matter of how much detail you want to look at...

in any case, the use of detergents and water to keep well pressure up and oil production steady is going to make the down-slope much steeper anyway... instead of a bell curve peak, it's going to be more like a plateau and cliff...


You're focusing too much on the geology aspect of it. Of course the peaks of the sine wave can never exceed the geological limit, but below that there could be a plateau with a sine wave, either increasing or decreasing in slope, based on market demand. This is just one possibility of course - and I was only suggesting that the current situation might be oscillation #1. We won't know until after it happens. Hell, if there is a bird flu pandemic and everybody closes their borders, demand (and hence production) could drop to say 40 Mb/day next year. My only point was that there are political and economic factors that are more important - look at Iraq for example.
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Re: Is this the last fling?

Unread postby jtmorgan61 » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 15:22:20

Well, I just came from pouring over the latest conference write-up at the oil drum (packed with current and former industry insiders), and it seemed like a general consensus might be that we have until about 2008 before demand permanently gets ahead of all-liquids supply, while 2010 or a bit later might well be the global liquids peak, reading into what they're saying.

As per usual, it's probably a safe bet that neither the most pessimistic (this month) or most optimistic (2020+) projections will be right.
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Re: Is this the last fling?

Unread postby Typhoon » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 16:51:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', 'W')ell, I just came from pouring over the latest conference write-up at the oil drum (packed with current and former industry insiders), and it seemed like a general consensus might be that we have until about 2008 before demand permanently gets ahead of all-liquids supply, while 2010 or a bit later might well be the global liquids peak, reading into what they're saying.

As per usual, it's probably a safe bet that neither the most pessimistic (this month) or most optimistic (2020+) projections will be right.


Not really. Matthew Simmons says that we could be peaking right now, and that we probably will peak within the next few years. Chris Skrebowski predicts 2008, and says that could be optimistic. The pessimistic scenario in his presentation to the conference showed declining production starting now. Tom Petrie has some disagreements with Simmons, but he thinks that peaking after 2010, while realistic, would be the best-case scenario. According to him, a peak sooner than 2010 is more probable. Jeremy Gilbert is involved with Colin Campbell, so perhaps Gilbert projects 2010, although I don't think he would deny that it could happen sooner. It wasn't clear from Gilbert's PowerPoint presentation what he exactly thinks, but I wasn't at the conference to listen to him speak.

Julian Darley asked Skrebowski in an interview whether Deffeyes' prediction of Thanksgiving 2005, plus or minus a few weeks, is realistic. Skrebowski said that it could absolutely prove to be true, even though that's not his own prediction.
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