by Typhoon » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 16:51:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', 'W')ell, I just came from pouring over the latest conference write-up at the oil drum (packed with current and former industry insiders), and it seemed like a general consensus might be that we have until about 2008 before demand permanently gets ahead of all-liquids supply, while 2010 or a bit later might well be the global liquids peak, reading into what they're saying.
As per usual, it's probably a safe bet that neither the most pessimistic (this month) or most optimistic (2020+) projections will be right.
Not really. Matthew Simmons says that we could be peaking right now, and that we probably will peak within the next few years. Chris Skrebowski predicts 2008, and says that could be optimistic. The pessimistic scenario in his presentation to the conference showed declining production starting now. Tom Petrie has some disagreements with Simmons, but he thinks that peaking after 2010, while realistic, would be the best-case scenario. According to him, a peak sooner than 2010 is more probable. Jeremy Gilbert is involved with Colin Campbell, so perhaps Gilbert projects 2010, although I don't think he would deny that it could happen sooner. It wasn't clear from Gilbert's PowerPoint presentation what he exactly thinks, but I wasn't at the conference to listen to him speak.
Julian Darley asked Skrebowski in an interview whether Deffeyes' prediction of Thanksgiving 2005, plus or minus a few weeks, is realistic. Skrebowski said that it could absolutely prove to be true, even though that's not his own prediction.