In a post-peak world, we know things are going to change and change dramatically. But, how fast will the onset of peak-oil be? Who, and what will be affected first. As you all know, I see the airlines as the “canary in the mineshaft.” This will start a domino affect reaching out to the parcel carriers, aerospace industries, tourism, travel agencies, hotels, motels, restaurants, cruise ships, theme parks and many other forms of recreation. Fewer tourists mean fewer dollars and fewer dollars means loss of jobs in places where the tourist dollar is the primary source of income. Delivering mail, transporting raw materials to manufacturers and sending products bought over the Internet are just some of the everyday transactions that will take more time and money as carriers downsize and put fewer planes in the sky.
Leisure oil use activities will surely be hurt, especially the recreational vehicle industry. The demand for motorhomes, jet-skis, off-road vehicles, pleasure boats, snowmobiles, ATV’s, (motorcycles may be a growth industry, though) private airplanes, and the biggest industry of all—racing—will drop dramatically as shortages occur and fuel costs rise. Think of all the industries that racing and recreational vehicles supports: helmets, insurance, auto parts/repairs, etc, etc. Bottom line; a lot of people’s jobs are going to disappear almost overnight. It won’t be just about paying more for gas and using less as a lot of people think. Post-peak oil prices will start a pandemic that will spread throughout our economy like a wildfire fanned by a strong wind.
What will governments do? Will oil go to the highest bidder? Will we see countries like China, Japan, and the US competing for oil to meet their growing economies? Or will we see the US taking the oil by military force? Will there be hoarding? Will conflict we create exacerbate the crisis that peak-oil will cause? These are all questions with few answers.
PeakOil is You
THE Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil
THE Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil
by MonteQuest » Sat 25 Sep 2004, 00:01:35
Last edited by MonteQuest on Sat 27 Jan 2007, 16:04:21, edited 1 time in total.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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by Jack » Sat 25 Sep 2004, 00:16:49
I really think the onset will be slow. We'll see prices rise dramatically, which will curtail demand and cause a recession. That will curb demand and slow the price increase for a time.
I agree that airlines will be in trouble; and leisure time activities as well. The tourist industry is likely to suffer.
But with regard to global geopolitics, I strongly suspect that oil will go to the highest bidder. The problem with taking oil by force is that protecting the needed infrastructure is a big problem. An even worse problem is that a nuclear China might have a strong objection!
I think there will be a little hoarding, but the public pressure to use the reserves will be too great. Frankly, it is madness to pump oil out of the U.S. strategic reserve at this time - but we appear to be doing it.
Really, I think that the initial stages will be a case of the rich nations facing higher expenses, and the poor ones being crowded out. Later, things may become more challenging.
I agree that airlines will be in trouble; and leisure time activities as well. The tourist industry is likely to suffer.
But with regard to global geopolitics, I strongly suspect that oil will go to the highest bidder. The problem with taking oil by force is that protecting the needed infrastructure is a big problem. An even worse problem is that a nuclear China might have a strong objection!
I think there will be a little hoarding, but the public pressure to use the reserves will be too great. Frankly, it is madness to pump oil out of the U.S. strategic reserve at this time - but we appear to be doing it.
Really, I think that the initial stages will be a case of the rich nations facing higher expenses, and the poor ones being crowded out. Later, things may become more challenging.
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by Colorado-Valley » Sat 25 Sep 2004, 02:16:53
Trucking companies will be hurt very badly -- even with diesel at only $2.14 a gallon where I live -- for independent truckers this is a killer.
Also construction companies. A coffee-shop friend who owns a small construction company is already in trouble. Earlier this year before fuel went up he successfully bid on a bridge project 90 miles away. Commuting to the project and running his machinery is going to make him lose big money. He may even go bankrupt.
Don't forget discount stores like Wal-Mart. They have high transportation costs (goods cargoed all the way from China!) and their working-class clientele doesn't have a lot of discretionary income to buy frivolous stuff when it's all going to fill gas tanks.
And, like Jim Kunstler likes to say, when peak oil hits, we won't be eating any more 1,300-mile Caesar salads. I think we should be promoting local farming around our cities and towns right now. Farmers' markets are a great way to buy your food.
Also construction companies. A coffee-shop friend who owns a small construction company is already in trouble. Earlier this year before fuel went up he successfully bid on a bridge project 90 miles away. Commuting to the project and running his machinery is going to make him lose big money. He may even go bankrupt.
Don't forget discount stores like Wal-Mart. They have high transportation costs (goods cargoed all the way from China!) and their working-class clientele doesn't have a lot of discretionary income to buy frivolous stuff when it's all going to fill gas tanks.
And, like Jim Kunstler likes to say, when peak oil hits, we won't be eating any more 1,300-mile Caesar salads. I think we should be promoting local farming around our cities and towns right now. Farmers' markets are a great way to buy your food.
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by wzx » Sat 25 Sep 2004, 06:09:28
Lets say, the US Dollar crashes when Arabs refuse to invest in the USA or the Chinese in a suicide mood decide to take down the USA by refusing anymore loans, how will American be able to purchase oil then? With what currency/commodities ? Maybe peak would then be dealyed a couple of years when the greatest consumer does not have the ability to purchase as much ?
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by HUT » Sat 25 Sep 2004, 07:14:45
Hi all! This is my first post to peakoil. I have been following global oil and energy politics for some time now. Personally I can see only one way out from the present situation. Massive increase in energy efficiency. For Americans that would mean at least dropping SUV's, converting to diesel in a larger scale and developing mass transport. I think European car market is showing what will or what should happen particularly in the US. At the moment the consumption of diesel fuel is growing most rapidly in Europe. Diesel engines should be favoured all along the line anyway because they can use a variety of fuels (natural gas, natural oils etc). Having said all this, Europe and and US still consume massive amounts of energy and oil per capita compared to just about anybody else in the world. There is still a lot to do.
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by airstrip1 » Sat 25 Sep 2004, 07:21:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '
')
But with regard to global geopolitics, I strongly suspect that oil will go to the highest bidder. The problem with taking oil by force is that protecting the needed infrastructure is a big problem. An even worse problem is that a nuclear China might have a strong objection!
')
But with regard to global geopolitics, I strongly suspect that oil will go to the highest bidder. The problem with taking oil by force is that protecting the needed infrastructure is a big problem. An even worse problem is that a nuclear China might have a strong objection!
I wish I shared your confidence. Unfortunately, history tends to show that nations will wage wars over scarce resources even if it means risking destroying the prize that is being fought over. Just check out how often the word oil crops up in the standard Encarta entry on World War II
http://uk.encarta.msn.com/text_76156373 ... ar_II.html
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by MonteQuest » Sat 25 Sep 2004, 10:15:53
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('airstrip1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '
')
But with regard to global geopolitics, I strongly suspect that oil will go to the highest bidder. The problem with taking oil by force is that protecting the needed infrastructure is a big problem. An even worse problem is that a nuclear China might have a strong objection!
')
But with regard to global geopolitics, I strongly suspect that oil will go to the highest bidder. The problem with taking oil by force is that protecting the needed infrastructure is a big problem. An even worse problem is that a nuclear China might have a strong objection!
I wish I shared your confidence. Unfortunately, history tends to show that nations will wage wars over scarce resources even if it means risking destroying the prize that is being fought over. Just check out how often the word oil crops up in the standard Encarta entry on World War II
http://uk.encarta.msn.com/text_76156373 ... ar_II.html
I agree. Here's an excerpt from my book:
After Hitler invaded the U.S.S.R. in late June 1941, and Japan occupied the rest of Indochina, FDR froze all Japanese assets, thus cutting off trade, including oil. Without oil, Japan could not long continue the war against China; without oil, the Japanese Empire would wither and die. Japan made numerous efforts to negotiate using diplomatic measures to avoid war, but the U.S. rejected their offers. Six days before he cut the oil lifeline, he was warned in a memo from the navy chief of war plans that “doing so would lead promptly to Japanese action against the Philippines, which would involve us in a Pacific War.”
America demanded that Japan relinquish all conquests since 1937, withdraw all her troops from both China and Indochina—and in effect abrogate her Tripartite Treaty with Germany and Italy—as the price of lifting the embargo. To Tokyo, this was an ultimatum.
Thus the day of reckoning came for the Empire of the Sun; diplomatic surrender and humiliating retreat from China, and the end of their reign as a great power—or a desperate lunge south to seize the vital resources for which Japan was starving. But first, they had to neutralize the one force that could prevent them from doing so: the U.S. battle fleet riding at anchor at Pearl Harbor. During the two-hour raid, Japanese warplanes sunk or seriously damaged 16 major U.S. naval vessels, including six battleships, and killed 2,400 American servicemen.
On December 8, 1941, FDR went before Congress to decry “a date which will live in infamy.” The same day, former president Hoover wrote to his friends, “You and I know that this continuous putting pins in rattlesnakes finally got this country bitten.”
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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by Licho » Sat 25 Sep 2004, 11:10:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'T')rucking companies will be hurt very badly -- even with diesel at only $2.14 a gallon where I live -- for independent truckers this is a killer.
Well, even post-peak, you still need to transport large ammounts of cargo, and trucking is the only way in most parts of the world. So this industry won't be affected, they will just raise prices. There are no other alternatives .. railroad is not so well developed to transport all cargo, so trucking will be the way to go for long time, and won't be hurt by high prices.
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).
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