[Carlhole]

Al Fin Energy

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak oil has taken on the trappings of an apocalyptic religion recently. True believers tout "Hubbert Curves" and "Simmons Depletion Analyses" in circular jerkulars and echo choruses across the webosphere. Oil should be well over $500 a barrel by now, according to not-so-distant predictions of the peakers -- some dead and some alive. But oil is in the $80 range largely due to a combination of the weak Obama dollar, the speculative lemming's rush to a safe investment haven, and a misleading surge in demand from India, China, and Brasil.

But ignoring the doomseekers, what are the actual hydrocarbon resources which we have to deal with? Below are some rather conservative early estimates of hydrocarbon resources -- neglecting the vast terrestrial and sub-sea coal and methane clathrate resources. It may take a while to achieve "peak oil" when you consider how quickly industry is developing means of converting these unconventional hydrocarbons to conventional liquid fuels.

[Keith_McClary]

There's a slight differences between "resources" and "reserves".

For example, the Great Lakes are full of fresh water resources and there are plenty of methane resources on Saturn.

PS: And there's a 2 inch layer of BP oil on the Gulf floor. That's a resource.

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'I') know it hurts but it's good for you. Groupthink is bad...very, very bad.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.').. But oil is in the $80 range largely due to a combination of the weak Obama dollar, the speculative lemming's rush to a safe investment haven, and a misleading surge in demand from India, China, and Brasil.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')I know it hurts but it's good for you. Groupthink is bad...very, very bad.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')he problem with doomerism and anti-doomerism is that both sets of proponents have seldom thought through the essential core characteristic of capitalism. They haven't contemplated its causes and effects (it's fundamentals), it's resilience and adaptability...

[TommyJefferson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hen I arrived anyone predicted $147/barrel oil would have been laughed off this site. Called a "doomer."

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', 'T')here's a slight differences between "resources" and "reserves".

[Keith_McClary]

The article copies data from:
The Myth of Peak Oil and Why Peak Oil is Overrated
which doesn't give a source.

[Serial_Worrier]

* JIT delivery to supermarkets and big-box retailers is still humming
* Chain restaurants are still packed
* highways are packed
* gas is still $3/gallon nationwide average

keep it up doomers, PURE entertainment

[Fiddlerdave]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', '*') JIT delivery to supermarkets and big-box retailers is still humming
* Chain restaurants are still packed
* highways are packed
* gas is still $3/gallon nationwide average

keep it up doomers, PURE entertainment

[Golgo13]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hen I arrived anyone predicted $147/barrel oil would have been laughed off this site. Called a "doomer."

[Keith_McClary]

I seem to remember Cornies presenting graphs showing the real price of oil (and other commodities) declining over decades. They would confidently predict this to continue for the foreseeable future, until oil is replaced by something cheaper, better and more abundant.

I haven't seen that one lately.

We should get up an archeological expedition to dig down into those 2004 threads.

[Ibon]

As we descend into the consequences of overshoot there is no demarcation of before and after where everyone one day was ignorant and the next day cognizant of peak oil and related symptoms of overshoot. Like the hour hand of a clock the unwinding happens as people continue to go about their lives.

For this reason we see many posters here claiming that peak oil still hasn't happened or hasn't caused any major disruption on one hand and others who bring forth evidence that it does.

Both sides of this polarity are actually mistaken.

The doomer who sees collapse doesn't quite understand that the whole descent into the die-off will happen with folks still seeing their day to day life as normative and still be caught up in the dramas of survival. There will remain a percentage of the population defending a weakening status quo while a greater percentage increasing become disenfranchised. This descent does not bring with it any real revolution or civil war or even any real enlightenment about the ultimate cause which is indeed overshoot. In fact the disenfranchised very quickly find their new situation as a new "status quo" So doomers can wait in vain until their position is validated. It wont ever happen.

On the other hand those anti-doomers will continue to point to a normative status quo still functioning way down the slope of descent and continue to defend a BAU position. They will always look upon doomers as loser pessimists who are stuck in a fatalism.

You see the whole argument is rather pointless.

Every day is just another normal defined as normal by whatever the current conditions of the time. We will still be calling it a normal day even when we are down to 1 billion humans on the planet.

Jared Diamond does discuss this phenomenon with the last tree standing on the chapter about the Easter Islanders. It is worth a review of that to understand why the polemic exists regarding the doomer vs anti doomer.

Have a nice day

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fiddlerdave', 'A')nd 20% of the population that was working is now permanently unemployed.