[Doly]

I started this thread on January 2005, and it's interesting how some people are saying now oil peaked in 2004.

So, I ask again, did peak oil happen in 2004?

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'S')o, I ask again, did peak oil happen in 2004?

[venky]

Conventional oil did peak in 2004. Most all liquid scenario's point to a peak between 2010 and 2015 for all liquids. Even the conservative models like Koppellar or Skrebowski, point to increasing supply until 2010 atleast due to oncoming mega projects expected to add upto 10-15 million barrels a day from now till 2012. Ofcourse the question is how much of this will be required to cover for depletion.

While it is true that production has been essentially flat for around a year, I think this is because of geopolitical events. Like the invasion of Iraq, took about 1-2 million barrels a day off that could have otherwise been produced there. Nigeria has lost perhap half a million due to the unrest. Also hurricane Katrina in the gulf. While we will probably continue to see tightness between supply and demand from now till 2010, I doubt we are at a peak now, unless decline rates are far higher than commonly believed.

[grabby]

It doesn't really matter what caused the peak, wether physical or political, it is still the peak.

You can say "If only we had twice the wells , producing, the peak would have been higher. yes it would have been, but it isnt and it wasnt and it is still peak anyway.

. If politics reduced the expected flow, thn other fields are decreasing meanwhile, because of the political delay, thus making it unlikly the higher production would ever happen later, just a flatter prolonged top which is what we are seeing, but it is still peak.

So no matter what the cause of the decreased production, it will still be peak, because the majority of the other supporting wells are on the increasing downslope and the longer you go the less they produced.

I think the peak could have been higher, but do to social problems it wasn't

all that means is bigger shortages sooner.
If there were 5 million extra barrels of sweet crude a day produced by monrovia stating tomorrow, price of oil would drop to 25 dollars a barrel.

So we are short of our needs.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', '.')..So we are short of our needs.