Noticed a lot less bread on the shelves lately. They only make enough Dutch crust for a fraction of the shoppers. Sourdough was completely sold out on XMas eve. Never saw that before. At least sausages were only 25% more expensive instead of out of stock.
One problem is massive housing and no stores being built, to take advantage of mortgage bailouts. The other problem is no wheat, to take advantage of the oil shortage. What we need is a subprime wheat bailout.
PeakOil is You
No bread on the shelves
No bread on the shelves
by heroineworshipper » Wed 26 Dec 2007, 16:39:35
People first, then things, then dollars.
There will be enslavement, cannibalism, & zombie invasions.
There will be enslavement, cannibalism, & zombie invasions.
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heroineworshipper - Tar Sands
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Re: No bread on the shelves
by steam_cannon » Wed 26 Dec 2007, 17:58:08
Yeah, could be... Due to increasing grain prices store managers may be stocking bread "Just In Time" to minimize losses. This isn't too unusual during holidays so food doesn't go bad while the store is closed. But, since grain prices keep going up, this may also be a new store policy you are seeing.
Sorry this is such a long post, but here are a few clips from articles relevant to this very important trend.
------------------------------------------------------------
Ratchet up your doomer index?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sun-sentinel - December 18, 2007', 'N')EW YORK - Wheat prices surged above $10 a bushel for the first time ever Monday amid concerns that strong demand globally could result in a grain shortage in the United States next year — worsening food price inflation.
Other commodities markets mostly declined, with energy, other agricultural futures and metals moving lower.
U.S. wheat supplies have dwindled this year as one wheat crop after another worldwide has been damaged by poor weather, most recently in Australia and Argentina. That's sent buyers scrambling for stockpiles at any cost. U.S. wheat exporters already have sold more than 90 percent of the 1.175 billion bushels the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects will be exported during the whole marketing year, which ends in June 2008.
Wheat prices crossing $10 a bushel won't immediately translate into a spike in retail prices for bread, cereal, cookies and other products, experts say. That's partly because companies like Kellogg Co., General Mills Inc., ConAgra Foods Inc. and Kraft Foods Inc. typically protect themselves from price volatility with long-term supply contracts. But analysts say consumers should expect higher prices in the grocery aisle.
...Wheat prices have hit a record high each of the past three trading sessions and have doubled since the start of the year, when wheat traded for about $5 a bushel...
...In the market panics of previous years, prices would rise to a level that developing countries couldn't afford. But it's not clear where that peak is now, said Mark Schultz, analyst with Northstar Commodity...
Link
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/sf ... 2767.story
More links
http://www.foxbusiness.com/article/whea ... 71_44.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.c ... d=10250420
Sorry this is such a long post, but here are a few clips from articles relevant to this very important trend.
------------------------------------------------------------
Ratchet up your doomer index?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sun-sentinel - December 18, 2007', 'N')EW YORK - Wheat prices surged above $10 a bushel for the first time ever Monday amid concerns that strong demand globally could result in a grain shortage in the United States next year — worsening food price inflation.
Other commodities markets mostly declined, with energy, other agricultural futures and metals moving lower.
U.S. wheat supplies have dwindled this year as one wheat crop after another worldwide has been damaged by poor weather, most recently in Australia and Argentina. That's sent buyers scrambling for stockpiles at any cost. U.S. wheat exporters already have sold more than 90 percent of the 1.175 billion bushels the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects will be exported during the whole marketing year, which ends in June 2008.
Wheat prices crossing $10 a bushel won't immediately translate into a spike in retail prices for bread, cereal, cookies and other products, experts say. That's partly because companies like Kellogg Co., General Mills Inc., ConAgra Foods Inc. and Kraft Foods Inc. typically protect themselves from price volatility with long-term supply contracts. But analysts say consumers should expect higher prices in the grocery aisle.
...Wheat prices have hit a record high each of the past three trading sessions and have doubled since the start of the year, when wheat traded for about $5 a bushel...
...In the market panics of previous years, prices would rise to a level that developing countries couldn't afford. But it's not clear where that peak is now, said Mark Schultz, analyst with Northstar Commodity...
Link
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/sf ... 2767.story
More links
http://www.foxbusiness.com/article/whea ... 71_44.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.c ... d=10250420
An ugly trend...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Why Are Food Prices Spiking? (Charts)
Total US wheat production has dropped from 58.74 million metric tons in 2004 to a projected 49.32 in March of 2007. That's a drop of 16%. Over the same period (2004 to Match 2007's yearly projection) all European countries have decreased wheat production as well. Australia -- which has been hit by a drought -- has seen production drop from 22.60 to 10.5 million metric tons. Overall world production has dropped from 628.59 million metric tons in 2004 to 593.11 million metric tons -- a decrease of 5.62%.
US and world production of course grains is also down. US production has dropped from 319 million metric tons in 2004 to a projected 280 million metric tons in 2007. That's a decrease of 12.2%. Overall world production has dropped from 1,014 million metric tons in 2004 to a projected 966 million metric tons in March 2007. That's a decrease of 4.73%.
http://mparent7777.blogspot.com/2007/03 ... iking.html
Grain supplies continue to get tighter...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', 'T')hese are certainly trends to keep an eye on. It's getting interesting out there.
Trend I've been watching
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Grain Harvest Sets Record, But Supplies Still Tight
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5539
http://www.peakoil.com/post558005.html
"Near-perfect weather in major growing areas as well as an estimated 5 percent jump in world fertilizer use helped farmers increase yields."
"...voracious global demand will consume all of this increase and prevent governments from replenishing cereal stocks that are at their lowest level in 30 years."
Global cereal stocks were expected to stand at 318 million tons by the close of the 2007 season, equivalent to about 14 percent of annual consumption.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('energybulletin', '
')World Grain Stocks Fall to 57 Days of Consumption: Grain Prices Starting to Rise (2006)
This year’s world grain harvest is projected to fall short of consumption by 61 million tons, marking the sixth time in the last seven years that production has failed to satisfy demand. As a result of these shortfalls, world carryover stocks at the end of this crop year are projected to drop to 57 days of consumption, the shortest buffer since the 56-day-low in 1972 that triggered a doubling of grain prices.
http://www.energybulletin.net/17261.html
Good news? I guess the good news is we aren't seeing famines yet and world grain prices haven't shot up too sharply, yet... But the trend is continuing.
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Related...
* Fertilizer supply problems (supply problem with fertilizers in spring 2008)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld demand is outstripping supply and farmers are being advised not only to make sure they have ordered what they need, but to take delivery and make sure they have it.
"This coming season, the most likely situation is a shortage,” said Yara’s England and Wales business manager Steven Chisholm.
World demand for grain production for both feed and biofuel was currently outstripping supply and that was driving the demand for fertilizers.
"All I would say is order it and get it delivered – ownership will be nine tenths of the law this spring.”
* Mexico's tortilla riots
"75,000 people protesting the rising price of tortillas."
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=fo ... gle+Search
Last edited by steam_cannon on Thu 01 May 2008, 22:42:09, edited 1 time in total.
