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No bread on the shelves

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby LoneSnark » Thu 03 Jan 2008, 16:11:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') couple months ago I came across a website about burning aluminum cans to heat your house.

That is true. Luckily aluminum can be recycled indefinitely with a tiny fraction of the energy required for its production. This is why American steel mills shut down in the 1980s; it was not from foreign competition, but because of competition from recyclers. This is why metal prices have skyrocketted: there is not enough recycled metal around to suffice as China and India are industrializing. But, once they are done industrializing they can simply get their metals the same way we do, by recycling it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut electricity prices and heating prices are skyrocketing

Not where I live. The price (11 cents/kwh) is the same as it was a decade ago.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')erhaps we should tell the Nigerians and Mexicans to try this! Maybe they just didn't think of using wind power?

Poor countries are not poor because of an energy shortage. Mexicans were poorer in 1998 when oil was $11 a barrel than they are today when oil is $96.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ight, that's why it's called "The oil we eat".

Fine, and if oil ran out tomorrow we would rename it "the uranium and coal we eat". If a virus killed all the bananas we would eat avocados for our Potassium.
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 03 Jan 2008, 18:05:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lanthanide', 'T')hese prices are all out of whack compared to what I see in the shops. Here are my prices for most of these items - NZ$ only:
bread - cheapest is 93 cents
bus - $2.50
carrots - typically around 99 cents/kg
CD - no one pays $35. Everyone buys from The Warehouse (local mini-Walmart, and largest music retailer in the country) who charge $23. The RRP is $35 however.
coca cola - more like $1.49 for 1.5 litre, but frequently on sale
coffee - more like $2-3, depending on brand, for instant
ice cream - typically sold in 2L for 2.50-4.00, depending on brand. Frequently on sale.
milk - 2L costs about $3 or so.
Movie ticket - $15, unless you go on tuesday when it is $10.
Petrol - currently $1.709 / L. My last fillup cost $84, and I already had a little in the tank (I buy the more expensive type though). That lasts me about 3 1/2 weeks of normal driving.
Toilet Paper - 50 cents a roll for the cheap stuff, so 4 pack = $2.
Toothbrush - you can get basic ones for $1 or so.
I can't really remember most prices, though I've kept out Christmas shopping receipt for future reference.

Bread can be cheap but I don't like the cheap stuff. A standard loaf is typically around NZ$3, though buying at a local bakers would set you back NZ$2.50 or so, for a good quality loaf. Apples are about $3 per kilo. Petrol is NZ$1.70/l here. The rest is about right, though you often need to look around for the cheaper stuff.
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 03 Jan 2008, 18:14:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lanthanide', 'A')t some point the bubble bursts and people stop worrying about the current economic order and just make-do with what is available, and all the happy country-living sharing-with-neighbors stuff, but I don't envision seeing that sort of thing happening for a good 30 years at least.
I don't think it will take anywhere near that long. If the peakists are right, we've only got 30 years of oil at current consumption rates. Since populations and demand continues to grow, and since oil cannot be produced at a constant rate until it's gone, we'll begin to see shortages at least within a few years. Airline tickets are already going up and that will accelerate, so we'll lose a lot of our tourism industry and our exports may become too expensive. So big changes are likely well before 30 years, I think. The speed depends, to some degree, on people's and government's reactions to the realisation that "the good times" are over.

But I think New Zealand is one of the best places to be during the transition.
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby LoneSnark » Thu 03 Jan 2008, 19:50:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he speed depends, to some degree, on people's and government's reactions to the realisation that "the good times" are over.

Everyone has already processed the realisation, hence $100 oil.
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby steam_cannon » Thu 03 Jan 2008, 22:10:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'L')uckily aluminum can be recycled indefinitely with a tiny fraction of the energy required for its production. This is why...
Hold it there buckaroo. Aluminum can be recycled but nothing can be recycled indefinitely.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rsch20', 'a')ctually after researching your point. you are right. consider this thread debunked I suppose.

http://www.rocksandminerals.com/aluminum/process.htm

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rocksandminerals.com', '
')Two tons of alumina are required to make one ton of aluminum.


http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic29561-0-asc-60.html


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut electricity prices and heating prices are skyrocketing

Not where I live. The price (11 cents/kwh) is the same as it was a decade ago.
You were paying 11 cents/kwh a decade ago?
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby LoneSnark » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 00:28:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')old it there buckaroo. Aluminum can be recycled but nothing can be recycled indefinitely.

Why? We are talking about aluminum, a metal. It does not change chemistry as it is worked like plastic or glass does. Now, some of it will oxidize away through use, but that is a puny amount of the total. You would need to reuse it many thousands of times to make a dent.
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby steam_cannon » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 03:34:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')old it there buckaroo. Aluminum can be recycled but nothing can be recycled indefinitely.

Why? We are talking about aluminum, a metal. It does not change chemistry as it is worked like plastic or glass does. Now, some of it will oxidize away through use, but that is a puny amount of the total. You would need to reuse it many thousands of times to make a dent.
Ok, now post some links proving this high efficiency. I'm not saying you can't be right. But issues with recycling aluminum have already been discussed in other threads. Also you are making an offhand remark regarding a scientific point, but you are not backing up your point with any solid data. Here is some data...

Aluminum Cans can be recycled infinitely?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Chemistry
1 ton of cans produces 5 tons of caustic waste

Coal
According to the International Aluminum Institute, about a third of the primary aluminum produced worldwide uses coal-generated electricity

Energy Costs
While aluminum companies often cite tremendous savings from recycling aluminum, they fail to mention that at current wasting levels, about 23 billion kilowatt-hours are squandered globally each year through ‘replacement production.’

Human factors
The beverage and aluminum industries tout the can as “the most recyclable” package in America, But recyclable doesn’t necessarily mean recycled. More than half of the 100 billion cans sold in the U.S. last year were landfilled or incinerated.

Green house gases
About 95 million tons of greenhouse gases were produced by the global aluminum industry in 2005. Primary aluminum smelting also generates sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions, which are contributors to smog and acid rain.

Usage in the rest of the world
Americans consume about 100 billion cans a year, or 340 per person, 10 times more than the average European and twice as much as the average Canadian, Japanese, or Australian. Consumption in emerging economies (including China, India, and the Former Soviet Union) hovers around 10 cans per person per year.

Environmental Impacts of Aluminum Production
http://www.container-recycling.org/alumfact/dirty.htm

Life Cycle Studies: Aluminum Cans
http://www.container-recycling.org/asse ... h-Cans.pdf


Aluminum Price Trends
Image

The point is, your posts look as if you haven't even considered things like "Life Cycle Analysis", price trends or even basic problems of human nature. I'm not saying you're completely wrong, but your posts consistently lack consideration for details and solid data, this is just another example...
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby TonyPrep » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 05:16:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'B')ut, once they are done industrializing they can simply get their metals the same way we do, by recycling it.
Are you saying that no aluminium, or other metals, is ever taken out of circulation for meaningful quantities of time? For example, a lot of houses over here are clad in aluminium and I very much doubt that the owners would be too pleased at someone else "recycling" it to clad their own house.

Recycling will certainly cut down on the amount of metal ore that needs to be mined but it will never replace mining, so long as we have economic and population growth.
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby LoneSnark » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 11:24:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')old it there buckaroo. Aluminum can be recycled but nothing can be recycled indefinitely.

steam_cannon, all the data I find says that aluminum is recycled right back into the products it came-from. Aluminum cans are recycled into aluminum cans; aluminum siding is recycled into aluminum siding.

I have seen you post no evidence to back up your claim that Aluminum can only be recycled so many times. It is your assertion that something can be recycled over and over back into itself but at some magic number it dissolves into unusability; therefore it sounds to me like the burden of proof is on you. Now, if your assertion is true how do they figure out which cans can be recycled further? What is being changed within the Aluminum atoms that makes them no longer form metalic bonds?

TonyPrep, you are absolutely right. I did not mean to imply that before Eastern Industrialization the west had shut down our bauxite mines. We still operated them to build new houses and increase the number of cans and airplanes in circulation as well as replace the aluminum that found its way into landfills. I was just responding to steam_cannon's assertion that all the energy put into Aluminum was lost, when in reality only a tiny fraction of it is lost every cycle.
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby steam_cannon » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 14:30:10

The important points

* As seen with the price of Aluminum metal, canning costs are rising. The rest of cannot afford to use canning as much as we do. If our energy outlook will become more like the rest of the world, we will have less energy for canning.

The pdf I posted gets into that. Cheap coal, natural gas and cheap discounted rates from hydroelectric sources has made aluminum production affordable. As these energy sources come under presure due to rising prices for coal, natural gas and electricity; as that happens we are seeing canning costs rise and become less affordable.

* Pure Aluminum is 95% recyclable. But this high efficiency is not normally achieved. Which means rising mining costs and growth are important factors in determining canning trends.

* As I posted earlier, recycling Aluminum alloys and oxides see up to 50% loss to unusable slag. And most cans have varying alloy composition, meaning even with direct melting mixing alloys into pure aluminum, there are issues with maintaining purity of the melt.

All these trends suggest canning will become more expensive in the US in the future. So prices for canned goods on your shelves will be going going up due to not only higher food prices but higher canning costs. Aluminum and steel are both very recyclable, we all know that. They are recyclable like glass. But as you can all guess, recycling or producing glass for a jar requires huge volumes of cheap natural gas. And as costs for things like natural gas goes up so do costs for cans and jars...

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Responding to LoneSnark really doesn't deserve much page space so I'm putting those comments here:

[spoil]$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'I') was just responding to steam_cannon's assertion that all the energy put into Aluminum was lost, when in reality only a tiny fraction of it is lost every cycle.
Nothing I said or posted implied a 100% loss. Practical losses are in the 5% to 50% range depending on varying factors.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'I') have seen you post no evidence to back up your claim that Aluminum can only be recycled so many times.
Perhaps you are you using a web browser that doesn't support links or pdf files?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'N')ow, if your assertion is true how do they figure out which cans can be recycled further? What is being changed within the Aluminum atoms that makes them no longer form metalic bonds?
Metallic has two "L"s. If you read, loses for aluminum are due to forming toxic slag, alloy impurities and most important "human recycling practices". [/spoil]
Last edited by steam_cannon on Fri 04 Jan 2008, 14:59:21, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby steam_cannon » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 14:35:27

Our daily [s]bread[/s] plastic...
Image

Bread and much of our food comes in plastic.
* How will natural gas and petro costs affect plastics prices and availability?
* Will this mean higher food costs for consumers?
* What changes in shopping practices will we see?

Plastics in general
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Get ready to pay more for plastic products; Soaring natural gas (September 19, 2005)
PDF: http://tinyurl.com/2pstye

"Consumers could start paying more for everything from automobiles to lawn chairs, as prices of raw materials used to make plastics rise at a rapid clip. Blame much of it on resins and chemicals materials used to make plastics that have surged as much as 40% in price since June. Another round of price increases is coming this fall, according to resin producers."

Plastic Bottles
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')HE HIGH COSTS OF A BOTTLE OF WATER (2005)

The plastic most commonly used in water bottles is made from oil derived PET ( p o l y e t h y l e n e terephthalate) and uses more water to make the bottles than will ever go into them. The Container Recycling Institute estimates that supplying thirsty Americans with bottled water for one year consumes more than 1.5 million barrels of oil. Producing PET also results in nasty air emissions of hydrocarbons, sulfur oxides, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and carbon dioxide.
http://www.tetonwyo.org/recycling/docs/2005Summer.pdf

This means:
Like rising metals prices, these trends suggest plastic packaging will become more expensive and add more to your food costs as energy prices increase. So in the future you can expect to see more bring your own bag policies. More policies encouraging container return. And less metals and plastics on the shelves.

A big change that you can see just walking around...
Image
In the last few years there has been a big push by many stores in America urging customers to buy reusable shopping bags. Stores aren't pushing people to bring their own shopping bags because they want to be eco-friendly. Stores are doing this because plastic is becoming more expensive. And I'm sure stores will eventually be suggesting people do more things like this, like bringing their own bread containers.

When I lived in Ukraine, food and energy costs were higher. As a consequence:
* Consumers spent around 60% of their income on food. In response and in Ukraine tradition, many people planted large gardens in and around the cities.
* Consumers brought there own shopping bags or were charged by the store.
* A large section of the open market was devoted to selling different types of bags, many with cool designs that I later gave to friends in the US as gifts.
* Most bread was fresh made.
* Most meat was fresh cut.
* Small sellers often reused bottles and soda containers. Amusingly, once I asked for a half liter of a fine rose wine and got in a Pepsi bottle, I forgot to ask for a new bottle. It was shocking, but this is what energy constraints can do.

This is what energy constraints can do to food costs
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cee-foodindustry.com', 'U')kraine... majority of the population spending between half and up to 80 per cent of their income on food.
http://www.cee-foodindustry.com/news/ng ... nsen-moves
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby LoneSnark » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 19:08:28

steam_cannon, it seems we disagree only on semantics except perhaps on one issue.

When you lived in the Ukraine I have no doubt consumers spent most of their money on food. But why were they doing that? you refer to it in the past tense, so if you lived their during the 90s when oil was occasionally less than $20 a barrel, why were they so poor?

You keep suggesting that America will become a third world country because energy is expensive, but you are ignoring the causes of poverty. The Ukraine was poor for various reasons, none of which involved high energy costs. Priced in dollars I think the food and energy prices in the Ukraine when you lived there were quite affordable from our perspective (I do not know).

http://www.salem-news.com/articles/july ... _71906.php
This article suggests Americans spend less than 10% of their income on food. If you are right and food prices double then without changing anything we are spending 20%; no big deal, we postpone that trip or buy a smaller house. But your Ukraine friends go from spending 60% of their income to 120% just on food, an impressive feat if they want to survive. Draw what conclusions you wish, but I am not worried about being able to feed myself as long as I live in a developed country.
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby roccman » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 19:16:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', '
')
http://www.salem-news.com/articles/july ... _71906.php
This article suggests Americans spend less than 10% of their income on food.


From that article...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')SDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) has recently released food expenditure statistics for 2005. They show that Americans are spending, on average, 9.9 percent of their disposable income on food.


WARNING: It is hazardous to ones health to believe ANYTHING that comes from the US Government.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby steam_cannon » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 21:39:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'F')rom that article...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')SDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) has recently released food expenditure statistics for 2005. They show that Americans are spending, on average, 9.9 percent of their disposable income on food.

WARNING: It is hazardous to ones health to believe ANYTHING that comes from the US Government.
Yeah, there's some truth to that. I'm looking at food expenditure projections and I came across this very outdated USDA projection for oil prices. You have to wonder what they were thinking when they made this chart.

USDA Projection (2000) :lol:
Image

What actually happened
Image

My own conservative projection (Hehehe, posting this chart again...)
Image
Last edited by steam_cannon on Fri 04 Jan 2008, 23:44:40, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby steam_cannon » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 23:35:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', '
')http://www.salem-news.com/articles/july ... _71906.php
This article suggests Americans spend less than 10% of their income on food. If you are right and food prices double then without changing anything we are spending 20%; no big deal, we postpone that trip or buy a smaller house.
Considering that most Americans have a negative savings rate, a mere doubling of food prices would cause lots of trouble. Ukrainians live close to the edge, Americans are living over the edge.

Image

U.S. savings rate hits lowest level since 1933
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11098797/

Americans' Negative Savings Rate
http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/ ... 51005.aspx

Americans Have Negative Savings Rate
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/02/ ... 3943.shtml

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 's')team_cannon, it seems we disagree only on semantics except perhaps on one issue.
Speaking of semantics, this is a common mistake so no fault on you but: "The Ukraine" was correct when The Soviet Union had a provence called The Ukraine province... But now that Ukraine is an independant country, saying "The Ukraine" is like saying "The France", "The Australia", or "The Europe".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'y')ou refer to it in the past tense, so if you lived their during the 90s
No. My experience is limited to 2003, however my wife and family in Ukraine help with longer term details when I post.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'P')riced in dollars I think the food and energy prices in the Ukraine when you lived there were quite affordable from our perspective (I do not know).
It's certainly true that Ukrainians don't have as many bills. Most Ukrainians own their homes, most Americans rent their homes though mortgages... Ukraine health care is free and quite available. It's true, Ukrainians get a pretty good bang for their buck.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'B')ut your Ukraine friends go from spending 60% of their income to 120% just on food, an impressive feat if they want to survive.Like Cuba, Ukrainians normally have gardens/family dacha farms in and around their cities where they live. So reaching a point of even 90% on food expenditures seems unlikely. But sure even though they have greater food security then us, wheat shortages in Ukraine are still likely.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'W')hen you lived in the Ukraine I have no doubt consumers spent most of their money on food. But why were they doing that? ...when oil was occasionally less than $20 a barrel, why were they so poor?First, you don't understand the economics of Ukraine. Ukraine is a former soviet state that still suffers the collapse of it's banking system. Ukraine is a way point in the transfer of natural gas from Russia to Europe. It's industry depends on natural gas which it gets only table scraps from Russia for it's service and agricultural products. The economic collapse Ukraine suffered and most importantly constrained energy supplies stifling industry has resulted in their economic condition and their being poor as you put it. My wifes family lost substantial savings during the collapse. Anyway it's reasonable to consider that economic collapse in our banking systems and constrained energy supplies in the US could result in similar problems here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', '[')u]You keep suggesting that America will become a third world country because energy is expensive, but you are ignoring the causes of poverty...

...Draw what conclusions you wish, but I am not worried about being able to feed myself as long as I live in a developed country.Well, I haven't stated that explicitly in this thread, but it is a concern many people have. America becoming a third world country is a concern any sociology professor will tell you is a problem America already faces...

Closing the collapse gap
http://www.energybulletin.net/23259.html

UN Hits Back at US in Report Saying Parts of America are as Poor as Third World
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0908-06.htm

America's Descent Into a Third World Country Part 2: Parasites in Inner City Children
http://forums.digitalpoint.com/showthread.php?t=622002

The United States: Richest Third-World Country in the World
http://tinyurl.com/33vp4y

TOO POOR TO GET SICK - America As Third World Country
http://www.uuccpf.org/toopoor.pdf

GOP Rep. Calls Miami 'Third World Country'
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/11/ ... 7944.shtml
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 05 Jan 2008, 01:21:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'I') am not worried about being able to feed myself as long as I live in a developed country.
That's probably fair enough if you live in a developed country that can grow all of its own food and can deliver it to where it's needed. How many developed countries can do that now and will that number decline as we go down the oil decline curve?
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby LoneSnark » Sat 05 Jan 2008, 02:28:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')onsidering that most Americans have a negative savings rate, a mere doubling of food prices would cause lots of trouble. Ukrainians live close to the edge, Americans are living over the edge.

That makes no sense. What does one's "savings rate" have to do with their "ability to afford food"? Americans do not save because we would rather put our money in the stock market or other forms of equity. If anything, our low savings rate is evidence of our superior purchasing power since Americans are no less intelligent than Ukrainians, and when we were as poor as they are we saved just as much as they do (I suspect).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's certainly true that Ukrainians don't have as many bills. Most Ukrainians own their homes, most Americans rent their homes though mortgages... Ukraine health care is free and quite available. It's true, Ukrainians get a pretty good bang for their buck.

Good for them. But the average american claims 5.6 times the economic output available to the average Ukrainian. Americans are richer, and if we stopped buying plasma TVs from Asia and expensive cars from Germany we could feed the whole world and still have money left over. Don't get me wrong, the Ukrainian people have come a long way from communism, but they are still poor for reasons that do not apply to even poor Americans.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nyway it's reasonable to consider that economic collapse in our banking systems and constrained energy supplies in the US could result in similar problems here.

As it did in the 1930s. As I said earlier, we agree more than we disagree, we just let the semantics cloud the issue.

And all your links confusing parts of America for a third world country are not new. America has always been this way, people are free to prosper or languish, often by government design (inner city poor) but also by choice (rural folk). America has just never had that sense of progress against our will that other countries suffer from. Mountain hillbillies, innercity abandons, none are new (did you see "Gangs of New York"?). Hence, since they are not new they cannot be evidence that anything has changed. Hence, their existance is no more evidence that America is regressing today than they were evidence that America was regressing in 1970, 1950, 1900, 1860, or 1790.
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby FoolYap » Sat 05 Jan 2008, 10:07:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'T')hat makes no sense. What does one's "savings rate" have to do with their "ability to afford food"? Americans do not save because we would rather put our money in the stock market or other forms of equity.


Hmm. Your theory is that people have no savings to speak of because they're investing all their money instead? Got anything to back that up?

Most people I know who talk about their lack of savings have none because they're basically spending everything they earn, as it comes in, not because they're sending it all to a brokerage, or buying bullion with it.

And the one thing that most of them have as an "investment" is their home, and that's been a questionable investment for many of them lately.

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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby steam_cannon » Sat 05 Jan 2008, 14:02:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoolYap', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'T')hat makes no sense. What does one's "savings rate" have to do with their "ability to afford food"? Americans do not save because we would rather put our money in the stock market or other forms of equity.


Hmm. Your theory is that people have no savings to speak of because they're investing all their money instead? Got anything to back that up?
Oh come on, you doubt LoneSnark? He quotes fictional movies as his references! :lol: I think I'll get back to LoneSnark's post later as there are errors just about every sentence.

But a more important discussion is todays news

"Forget oil, the new global crisis is food" (Jan 05, 2008)
http://peakoil.com/fortopic35281.html

News Article: Forget oil, the new global crisis is food
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=213343

It's a very interesting article and suggests that the food problems I've posted about are accelerating faster then I would have thought.

The article also gives incite into who the winners and losers will be:
* Countries with grain for export will have big advantages. This presently includes countries such as Ukraine and the US... But the US will be facing a LaNina year in 2008 expected to result in reduced harvests. Plus in the long term the US is accumulating damage from aquifer depletion and is likely to suffer from climate change in the next 5 - 20 years bringing megadrought to the mid west and drought to other parts of the country.
* Countries with access to fertilizers will have an advantage. However shortages are already cropping up in the US, so fertilizer is likely to be a big issue.
* I think we can reasonably predict meat prices will be skyrocketing due to increased production costs. So meat farmers will lose and consumers will lose.
* Another thing we can assume, Corn Ethanol will eventually be phased out of use for fuel production.

List of countries with enough land to grow food and all fuel
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic28369.html
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Re: No bread on the shelves

Unread postby Revi » Sun 06 Jan 2008, 19:48:56

The price of food is skyrocketing. It seems like the price of things that are necessary will keep going up. The 10% the dollar tanked this fall will ripple through next year. We'll end up paying a lot more for the priviledge of eating.

That's why we are having the kneading conference again this year. Here's a link to it:

http://www.heartofmaine.org/kneading/

Farmers, millers, bakers and oven makers will all be there. I was there last year as an official taste-tester. A tough job, but somebody had to do it.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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