by steam_cannon » Wed 01 Aug 2007, 15:53:06
I'm a Systems Analyst specializing in database systems in the work world. Debunking email scams and Urban Legends is a side hobby of mine. And geology, population, environment and energy are all interests of mine. In college I had an excellent geology professor who spent a little time getting into resource usage, depletion, environmental degradation and predicted a number of dangers the US could face such as a deluged New Orleans.
I decided I needed to purposely devote time researching the problem of exponential population growth and resource depletion, after reviewing an old book: "The Population Bomb" I picked up for 75 cents.
The original version of "The Population Bomb" is an excellent book because the timing of their predictions turned out not to be correct. So this begged the serious question, why hadn't these dieoffs happened yet? As no system can support infinite growth, I wanted to know the mitigating factors and how much longer exponential growth could last. What is the carrying capacity of the Earth? How long can the Earth support it's present population? What would be the implications of a diminishing world population be? When and how would that start?
First it turned out that the dire predictions in the "The Population Bomb" were averted mainly due to the introduction of petrochemicals that increased crop outputs, in what was a good climate at a time when there was plenty of fuel to support a functional modern economy. The petrochemicals came from non-renewable oil and natural gas supplies. Thus, the timing for a dieoff would be dependent on the availability of fuels that were running out. So getting better numbers on the availability of fuels became an important goal.
This of course lead me research oil, gas, coal, nuclear, biofuels, solar (and the rare metals required), global dimming, and climate change such as the worsening dust bowl situation in the plains states...
Along the way I came across: Kunstler, powerdown, dieoff.org, theoildrum.com, peakoil.com...
The results of this research put simply is that no system can support infinite growth and the maximum output for this system seems to have peaked. This also means the factors mitigating an earlier dieoff have also reached an apex and so the system is now winding down. This explains why the world is now experiencing demand destruction for fuel, yearly losses in food production, ethical tugs of war like food for fuel, economic instability, increased resource wars, and wide spread human habitat loss due to global climate change (further reducing the carrying capacity of our planet). And the implications of losing the mitigating factors mentioned earlier require no further explanation.