by EnergyUnlimited » Tue 07 Jan 2020, 05:14:26
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Your noting Iran’s escalation is in line with my thinking. Once USA pulled out and out tight sanctions in the Iranians had little they could do except to annoy through their silly attacks.
Trump showed restraint but was ultimately pushed to a point where he needed to respond.
He put the ball back in Iran’s court. If they loose their cool and do something significant the Trump will have the green light to take out their nuclear production facilities.
I suspect that Iran understands it.
That is why in all probability their only significant response will be construction of nuclear weapons.
They won't officially admit what they are doing (regardless of this being obvious) until first warhead is made and tested.
Later they will claim that US aggression left them with no other choice.
Regime change scenario in Iran without a major war is unlikely btw.
General hate of Americans there is higher than desire to increase consumption. On the other hand China *will* assist them and global trends of abandoning dollar are likely to erode effects of american sanctions as well as time pass.
They understand that US is an ailing empire and they play for time.
Objections are not to get to major war and calmly wait for erosion of american global influence. Any retaliation is going to be low key, not to cross war threshold. Perhaps some hostile activities in Yemen and/or Syria and nothing more than that.
They can win this confrontation without firing a shot. Also emerge as an important regional power as time pass.