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US economic demise

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Re: US economic demise

Unread postby Pops » Tue 17 Mar 2020, 10:29:54

If ever - in my 20 years of reading about PO there was a time to not worry about oil shortages, PO, etc, this would be it. Thankfully.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: US economic demise

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 17 Mar 2020, 10:45:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')f ever - in my 20 years of reading about PO there was a time to not worry about oil shortages, PO, etc, this would be it. Thankfully.


Pops, not sure how you reason that.  If even Short is half right about his thesis, net energy is becoming a big problem.  And not just from a thermodynamic perspective but to have enough energy to sevice this monstruous energy guzzling world civilization.  Remember, the admonishments to see peak oil as a economic problem above all.  And the peak oil dynamic term Rockman used.  Well the economic problems are here!  And they will only make the whole economic/energetic situation worse. Remember a cheap oil price may benefit consumers but not  the oil industry. Shale fracking seems particularly vulnerable to this low price.  Finally, no planB.  No replacement to our fossil fuel dependence is available currently
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Re: US economic demise

Unread postby Pops » Tue 17 Mar 2020, 11:11:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'R')emember, the admonishments to see peak oil as a economic problem above all. 

First, Short isn't even half right.

But yes, do consider the economics.
Supply:
US increased production 11% in '19 and 17% in '18
OPEC cut production all last year trying to shore up price that shale was continuously undermining.
If frackers have anyone to blame it is themselves.

On the demand side: up about 1% in 2019
COVID will cause at least a 5% recession and corresponding hit to demand

Real World, the oil will still be down there and still have the same energy if every driller in the world goes belly-up

So a glut vs a recession. Looking at the economics I'd say low price is a blessing.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: US economic demise

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 19 Mar 2020, 20:40:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')f ever - in my 20 years of reading about PO there was a time to not worry about oil shortages, PO, etc, this would be it. Thankfully.


Pops, not sure how you reason that. 

And that you would say that, says precisely why you have NO BUSINESS talking about economics. The basics of things like supply and demand are completely beyond you.

Oil demand is going to be DOWN sharply for months. Or perhaps a couple years. In the face of that, there's too much supply, especially with KSA and Russia playing games. Thus the price has plummeted.

The idea that this means we'll soon be running out and have an "energy deficit" is preposterous, even for you.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: US economic demise

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 21 Mar 2020, 18:53:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')f ever - in my 20 years of reading about PO there was a time to not worry about oil shortages, PO, etc, this would be it. Thankfully.


Pops, not sure how you reason that. 

And that you would say that, says precisely why you have NO BUSINESS talking about economics. The basics of things like supply and demand are completely beyond you.

Oil demand is going to be DOWN sharply for months. Or perhaps a couple years. In the face of that, there's too much supply, especially with KSA and Russia playing games. Thus the price has plummeted.

The idea that this means we'll soon be running out and have an "energy deficit" is preposterous, even for you.

Really! You do realize that the Economy and oil industry mutually depend on each other. That is a premise that seems to go beyond your simplistic supply/demand vantage point. You also seem to discount constantly the central role of oil in our industrial civilization. As the Economy sputters so will the oil industry and vice versa. . This creates a downward momentum that overrides
supply/demand price signals ie. the oil price will stay low and keep getting lower. The oil industry cannot recover to break this momentum as it is being dragged down by demand destruction, low revenue and thus low production. This situation brings the Economy down and so this reinforcing dynamic is this dowbward momentum in which oil industry/Economy head down in tandem into deflation and Depression and eventually collapse. So please spare us your simplistic retort.
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Re: US economic demise

Unread postby Pops » Sat 21 Mar 2020, 19:27:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'R')eally! You do realize that the Economy and oil industry mutually depend on each other.

...and eventually collapse.

LOL, you are so compacted with short's BS you can't put together a post without saying "collapse".

Oil doesn't "depend on the economy" any more than trees or copper do. It is a primary resource, it doesn't depend on anything, it is there for the taking.
Bankrupt every oil producer on Monday and on Tuesday every lease will be owned by someone new—with a lot less debt.
"collapse" the economy for 100 years... the oil's still there!
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: US economic demise

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 21 Mar 2020, 19:50:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'R')eally! You do realize that the Economy and oil industry mutually depend on each other.

...and eventually collapse.

LOL, you are so compacted with short's BS you can't put together a post without saying "collapse".

Oil doesn't "depend on the economy" any more than trees or copper do. It is a primary resource, it doesn't depend on anything, it is there for the taking.
Bankrupt every oil producer on Monday and on Tuesday every lease will be owned by someone new—with a lot less debt.
"collapse" the economy for 100 years... the oil's still there!

So, at times you guys argue from the economic standpoint of supply/demand, inflation etc. Then you stand on the purely resource based natural properties argument. And Short and I and few others here have refuted both stances. The oil has different variables that distinguish it. That is why some is light sweet crude and other heavy dirty. We went as is logical first for the easy to get oil. Now with technology we can get and produce the more difficult to access and produce oil. Oil which as many studies have shown requires more energy to access and exploit. So you cannot equate ALL oil as the same as per these traits. And you cannot pivot as you guys do between these 2 types of argunents, The problem is energetic/economic together. You cannot separate them. The economics of resource extraction is as real to our energy dependent Economies as is a tree, wood, water etc. But I do give you credit for understanding Pops that economics is how we organize and allocate natural resorces and that ultimately the state of the Resource and Nature is what counts hence the EROEI and thermodynamics will dictate for how long our civilization will be able to exploit fossil fuels as a primary enery source,
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Re: US economic demise

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 22 Mar 2020, 00:05:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o, at times you guys argue from the economic standpoint of supply/demand, inflation etc. Then you stand on the purely resource based natural properties argument. And Short and I and few others here have refuted both stances. The oil has different variables that distinguish it. That is why some is light sweet crude and other heavy dirty. We went as is logical first for the easy to get oil. Now with technology we can get and produce the more difficult to access and produce oil. Oil which as many studies have shown requires more energy to access and exploit.


I don't know how many times you have to be informed about the realities here that are quite different from your bizarre assumptions. First of all the oil that you suggest is more difficult to produce, which would be the unconventional production out of North America is all light oil and the oil that actually is pretty easy to produce because you can mine it is heavy oil. And the cost to produce that light tight oil has been dropping over the years so it is actually cheaper now to produce light tight oil from a thousand foot horizontal with numerous stages of fracks than it was to produce similar barrels from vertical wells in conventional reservoirs 15 or 20 years ago. You folks have this standard statement about it being more and more expensive to produce oil and you haven't even bothered to look at the data. Do your homework.
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Re: US economic demise

Unread postby Pops » Sun 22 Mar 2020, 00:57:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 't')hermodynamics will dictate

No it won't.
All that bs was dismissed with prejudice years ago by much smarter people than me.

Price will continue to be dictated by geology, technology, politics, alternatives and profit.
Same as ever.
All the way down.

Lower eroei and limited resource could reduce available supply.
The effect of reducing supply is higher price.
Higher price could certainly affect demand.
There's no special magic in that, it's just peak oil.
The clue to be alert for?
High price.

That's really all I have to say, I was over this years ago so don't be insulted if I don't play
.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: US economic demise

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 22 Mar 2020, 05:59:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '
')So, at times you guys argue from the economic standpoint of supply/demand, inflation etc. Then you stand on the purely resource based natural properties argument. And Short and I and few others here have refuted both stances.

No, you've repeatedly shown how ignorant and delusional you both are re economics and oil's role in economics. And how you have zero capacity to actually learn. But you haven't refuted SQUAT outside your own imaginations, no matter how many times you claim otherwise.

There's a variety of ETP threads on this site that clearly show that. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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