[Zardoz]

"Elliott Waves", "Bollinger bands", "Fibonacci clusters", "full stochastics"?

Huh? What?

It's all Greek to me, but we can see what the bottom line is: We're screwed!

Does anybody here actually understand all this stuff?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Well, that is all for today..."

[SoothSayer]

Zardoz, I wouldn't take this stuff too seriously ... even if under all the shite it appears to support our/your opinions.

It's all mumbo jumbo, shrouded in fancy words to convince the punters that the "advisers" know what they are talking about.

If these "chartists" and "analysts" are so darned good, then why aren't they all rich?

The markets seem to be essentially chaotic .. but like casino gambling lots of people and firms incorrectly believe that they have a "system".
(I suspect that this is where several people jump in and tell me how stupid I am, because THEY do have a system that works ... sigh)

There are indeed ways of predicting the market ... but it's usually called insider trading.

Another way is pay for fast data feeds and fast computers and trade large volumes to minimise overheads so that your firm is literally milliseconds in front of everyone else and so can make small margins on large volumes.

Other computer methods also exist which cross-check chains of exchange rates etc, and which kick into action when time delays and human error lead to profit making opportunities.

The lights going out, mounting job losses, or filling station queues or further Middle East wars will be a more valid indicator than any "Elliot Wave"!

Heck, this Elliot Wave is way bigger than my Excel spreadsheet predicted...

[Peak_Plus]

Donno why I'm even responding to this...
Elliott waves are more a descriptive device, just like "peak oil". You'll know how to count it after the fact.

It can also help trading, although no "system" will tell you whether you can make money on your trade on any particular day. Trading is 70% timing and 30% money management. I use Elliott to help my trading, but it can never tell me if we're at a bottom or at a top, the most essential information for a trader. It can tell you if you are "near" some goal...

It's like the Goldman guy telling you oil is going to reach $104. What kind of nut is he, anyway? I asume oil is going to rise in the mid- and long- term.. Traders care more about the short term. Who would want their money tied up for the next couple of years?
Wave 3 means we're in the biggest move on the chart. Duh!! Who would a' thunk it?

[AlCzervik]

Z, when you want to keep it simple with the economics lingo, listen to the Mogambo.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')-- Today, class, we are privileged to get some nice technical analysis stuff. The first is from the famous Stephen Leeb, of The Complete Investor newsletter, who says that in timing the market (defined as the S&P500), "I found that a certain measure of the price of crude oil is the most perfect indicator of long term (12 months) stock prices ever seen."

I am not sure what he means by "a certain measure" of crude oil, but whatever it is, I am pretty damned sure that it will soon be reflected in the price of crude oil, and it is already part of Mogambo Transcendent Market Lore (MTML) that when energy costs go up (as when any costs go up) for production of goods and services, that final goods and services prices will soon go up, too.

And it naturally follows that prices going up is bad because my skimpy paycheck doesn't go as far, and then I have to listen to my family whining about how they don't have any money, and how they need some money, and how they want some money, and can they have some money, and may they please, please, please have some money, and when are we going to get some more money, yammer yammer yammer? It gets so bad that their shrill, whining little voices are usually still ringing in my ears as I am lining up my drive at the first tee.

We are also grateful to Mr. Leeb when he reveals that oil prices tend to get cyclically roiled "roughly every five years," and during that time that "you should get out of the market until oil levels off again (which takes about five months on average)."

Now, I am sure that you will agree with me that this is all interesting as hell and all, and we are grateful for the technical analysis ideas, but the really interesting part is how he makes it a point in his newsletter to stress that he is sure that, "By 2010, oil will hit $200 a barrel, pushing inflation well into double digits." That's three and a half short years away!

And anyway, this is even higher than the $170 per barrel I figured would happen by 2010, which was based on a 50% drop in the value of the dollar combined with a 20% increase in price due to increased global demand of 15%.

[Gazzatrone]

Charts

[peaker_2005]

A little peek around this site found this article:

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/wil ... 70706.html

I think he's off on some points, but there's a good deal of truth in there.

Thankfully, it's written in fairly plain english.

[Geko45]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peaker_2005', 'I') think he's off on some points, but there's a good deal of truth in there.

[Peak_Plus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geko45', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peaker_2005', 'I') think he's off on some points, but there's a good deal of truth in there.

[Geko45]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', 'H')e was being sarcastic.