[Observerbrb]

Oil prices are hovering around 50$ per barrel. Will they hold or even trend upwards? I guess we will see it very soon.

[creedoninmo]

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... _MBBLD&f=W
They can produce oil for less than 50 dollars a barrel because they no longer care about a return on their investment.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', 'T')he masturbators who dismiss any accounting for energy in oil extraction implicitly assume and assert that there will always be cheaper energy sources to extract the expensive oil (and gas). Where is there as single shred of evidence of cheaper energy sources being deployed in oil and gas extraction? You clowns can't get away with some spontaneous future transition to these mythical cheap sources since any such transition requires years of expensive infrastructure development.

[BahamasEd]

Lots of good stuff, I loved reading the last 80 or so posts, Now back to some facts.

Back in 2014, both here and at thehillsgroup.org, shortonoil predicted that the EIA annual price of WTI would be under $66 in 2016 and under $54 in 2017. (you can go to the EIA site and look up the price)

No one wants to argue about that, because the prediction has been correct. Come on, I've been posting this weekly for the last few months and NO-ONE has been posting about it. Just a 100 post of bull without much substance.

It's just a waste of time making a new chart for you all, the WTI 50 week EMA price closed at $49.10 which is 80% of the MAP price predicted by the ETP model

The ETP holds for another week, the score is

ETP wins for 135+ weeks in a row.

The prediction for next week is that the 50 week WTI EMA will be under $54.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BahamasEd', 'B')ack in 2014, both here and at thehillsgroup.org, shortonoil predicted that the EIA annual price of WTI would be under $66 in 2016 and under $54 in 2017. (you can go to the EIA site and look up the price)

No one wants to argue about that, because the prediction has been correct. Come on, I've been posting this weekly for the last few months and NO-ONE has been posting about it. Just a 100 post of bull without much substance.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marmico', '[')i]The only thing that is changing is the amount of energy and money spent on finding, drilling for and delivering that oil to the refinery and that has to be calculated over all the different oil fields in the world from KSA to Alberta tar sands times each ones percentage of the market.

Correct. Brandt studied 40 oil fields around the world and concluded: The net energy return ratios (NERs) examined in this study for global oilfields range from approximately 2:1 to 100:1, with a production-weighted mean of 33:1.

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/articl ... ne.0144141

[Midnight Oil]

Seems you boys are beating this horse to death.
Impressive...now if you want to see impressive...watch Bob Baker show you it here in a clip from The Price is Right

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=V_96_ITeIFo

Now we have one on the opposite side of the coin

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BMCFRElyaCc

Now, fellas, that is a whole lot more entertaining and worthwhile than hearing the consent bickering about that silly bet. Maybe Sea gypsy should go on The Price is Right!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('creedoninmo', 'T')hanks for the great post Don. In the peak oil community, there is certainly a lot of chatter.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('creedoninmo', 'h')ttps://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPM0F_YPY_NUS_MBBLD&f=W
They can produce oil for less than 50 dollars a barrel because they no longer care about a return on their investment.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BahamasEd', '
')No one wants to argue about that, because the prediction has been correct.

[creedoninmo]

Adam B wrote: Not according to pstarr. He claims every economic crisis, geopolitical event and solar flare was PRECEDED by a jump in oil price. Low oil prices then stimulating the economy, not harming it.
A jump in oil prices will cause an economic crises; a fall in oil prices will cause production to go off line; but this is so simple that it shouldn't have to be said. On a well run website trolls are deleted. This website obviously has some problems.

[creedoninmo]

Thanks Kublikhan for your post and links; So we should be following the smart money the commercial hedgers. Large crude speculators are dumb, commercial hedgers are smart.

[Cog]

So when is this tremendous oil shortage supposed to get off the ground?

[creedoninmo]

Since 2008 the downward momentum in oil price has apparently been occurring in waves and we are due for another wave down. Which wave will take us out. Wild guess 2022. Maybe we will see the first signs of oil shortages with the next wave down in oil price.

[dissident]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'S')o when is this tremendous oil shortage supposed to get off the ground?

[creedoninmo]

Oil production follows the economy; it does not lead.

[ROCKMAN]

creed - "Since 2008 the downward momentum in oil price has apparently been occurring in waves". From late 2008 oil prices increased from $30/bbl to $90/bbl in 2014. In fact, adjusted for inflation, the price of oil has consistently INCREASED in waves since 1998 when oil sold for less the $20/bbl. Yes, there have been price retreats over the last 20 years. But the over all trend has been oil prices increasing at a high rate that has never been experienced since the late 1970's. Very easy to see the general trend:

https://www.google.com/search?sclient=t ... C4#imgrc=_

[creedoninmo]

Rockman: The price dynamics before and after 2008 were different. The waves that I see are since 2008.
To Kublikhan: If the commercial enterprises are shorting oil, than obviously the crude oil speculators which to some extent are you and I, are being scammed, apparently out of ignorance. Obviously it means that the oil companies are in the know, which I have debated in my mind forever.