[seldom_seen]

It is my understanding that we have creamed off most of the light sweet crude from world supplies, and what will be left is the heavy sour crude.

I'm trying to understand the world peak in terms of light sweet versus heavy sour. Has anyone seen any percentages or ratios as to how much light sweet versus heavy sour makes up our 84/MBPD world consumption? What about current refining capacity? How much of it is geared towards light or heavy? Is the industry in a mad rush to convert their refineries to handle heavy? The BP plant in Texas that keeps blowing up is refining heavy. (Is this analagous to a pothead smoking up all his primo ganja and then scraping the pipe for resins?)

How about the EROEI and environmental affects of refining heavy versus sour? Is it possible that we could hit a light sweet peak, that is mistaken for the real peak based on lack of refining capacity for heavy sour. Then bounce along for a couple years before heavy refining capacity catches up extending the "real" peak out further in time?

I ran across an article a while back that said SA wants to get in to the refining business (of heavy sour). Venezuela is getting in to the action with the Hamaca 'heavy crude' upgrade project:



There has also been a deluge of media reports in relation to high oil prices about the "lack of refining capacity." What is never made evident in these reports, but seems quite obvious, is that there's plenty of light sweet refinery capacity but very little heavy sour capacity. Without understanding this point, one would think that tankers brimming with oil are lined up in ports around the world waiting to offload their bounty, and we just can't make enough refineries to keep up with all the oil we're pumping out of the ground.

It seems we are headed from a light sweet world to a heavy sour world.

most dutifully,
seldom seen

[Sys1]

i've read in another thread that heavy sour crude refineries need natural gas to process oil...

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'i')'ve read in another thread that heavy sour crude refineries need natural gas to process oil...

[RonMN]

Here's what i've heard (i'm no expert).

1. Pumping heavy sour vs. light sweet is like sucking a thick milk shake thru a straw vs. sucking water thru a straw (more costly).

2. Refining heavy sour is much more difficult & requires more energy to do so (more costly).

3. Heavy sour gives us only 60% of the energy per barel compared to light sweet (more costly)

[pip]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'i')'ve read in another thread that heavy sour crude refineries need natural gas to process oil...

[Eli]

Well you asked 64000 dollar question.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Has anyone seen any percentages or ratios as to how much light sweet versus heavy sour makes up our 84/MBPD world consumption?

[Sparaxis]

I don't think such data exist publicly on a comprehensive world-wide basis (though I know a few oil industry consultants who lay out such breakdowns if you're willing to pay for their reports).

A few clarifications: most refiners DO NOT use natural gas as process fuel. It's far too costly. They mainly use off-gases and other liquid streams from the refining process itself. The major use of natural gas in a refinery is to produce hydrogen, which is used both in some upgrading units (hydrocrackers) and in processes to clean the sulfur and other gunk out of the final product (hydroprocessing, hydrotreating). Many refineries can rely on hydrogen from their reformers (used in gasoline production) but processing sour crude often requires additional hydrogen.

Second, heavy crude contains more energy than light crudes per unit volume, not the other way around. The problem is that we don't demand crude directly: we demand the products made from crude. Since we have strict requirements on the quality of the final products, we have to expend a lot more energy to process sour heavy crudes into final products, so in the end the net energy availability is lower, not gross energy availability.

[fred2]

In Simmons's book 'Twilight in the Desert' he says that "the entire remaining spare daily oil supply of any magnitude anywhere in the world" is SA's Safaniya field, and he estimates it at 500,000 bpd. (p.191). Safaniya produces heavy oil.

Excellent book btw - I'd recommend it.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fred2', 'I')n Simmons's book 'Twilight in the Desert' he says that "the entire remaining spare daily oil supply of any magnitude anywhere in the world" is SA's Safaniya field, and he estimates it at 500,000 bpd. (p.191). Safaniya produces heavy oil.

Excellent book btw - I'd recommend it.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sparaxis', ' ')heavy crude contains more energy than light crudes per unit volume.

[linlithgowoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is my understanding that we have creamed off most of the light sweet crude from world supplies, and what will be left is the heavy sour crude

[PO_TimeCr0ss]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fred2', 'I')n Simmons's book 'Twilight in the Desert' he says that "the entire remaining spare daily oil supply of any magnitude anywhere in the world" is SA's Safaniya field, and he estimates it at 500,000 bpd. (p.191). Safaniya produces heavy oil.

Excellent book btw - I'd recommend it.

[Raminagrobis]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'i')'ve read in another thread that heavy sour crude refineries need natural gas to process oil...

[clv101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'I')t is my understanding that we have creamed off most of the light sweet crude from world supplies, and what will be left is the heavy sour crude.

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '(')Is this analagous to a pothead smoking up all his primo ganja and then scraping the pipe for resins?)

[chrispi]

If we have to rely on heavy sour crude, we're going to have less exergy at our disposal, even at full capacity. Less exergy = less energy profit to run our economy!

[Kingcoal]

Air Products, Inc., is the worlds biggest producer of hydrogen and they are booming in that product right now. We tend to worry a little too much about oil on this site. We should be worried primarily with natural gas and hydrogen. If we had lots of natural gas the heavy sour thing wouldn't be a problem other than being more expensive. However with NG peaking along with light sweet, we have a problem.

Someone please come up with a cheap, high production method of producing hydrogen in large quantities.

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', '[')b]OPEC Reveal Global Light Sweet Crude Peaked
The key point is that non-OPEC light sweet crude went from 41% of 66 mb/d to 34% of 70 mb/d from 2000 to 2004, a drop of 3.26 mb/d. OPEC added 1 mb/d of light sweet crude over the same period resulting in a global reduction of light sweet crude of over 2mb/d showing that global light sweet crude has peaked and is now in decline.
http://www.vitaltrivia.co.uk/2005/08/26

[0mar]

Not all heavy crdue projects are sour; not all light crude projects are sweet. There is sour light crude and sweet heavy crudes. Sweet/sour are measures of the sulfur content in crude. Sulfur is a smog gas (not sure about GHG) and also plays a key part in acid rain formations. This is why most refineries shy away from sulfur. Because of clean air mandates, sulfur has to be removed during the refining process and this costs money and infrastructure.

[clv101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'L')et me know if I'm missing anything, but If global light sweet has peaked, then that's it, we've peaked right?