[holmes]

and for all you who are pushing the global/national agenda/culture change, what is your timeframe?

[retiredguy]

Backstop, the $64K question: what is that umbrella issue?

I selected the war in Iraq as the vehicle because of my experience with the anti-Vietnam War movement. That movement became a cultural movement and gave a leg-up to a number of other issues/movements: reproductive rights, the women's movement, the environmental movement, etc.

What really made this movement work was that it was both cultural and political. The tipping point came when a little-known politician, Gene McCarthy, embraced the issue. That opened the door for Robert Kennedy and the anti-war movement became mainstream politics.

You might have heard that Russ Feingold (from WI) has asked the administration for a pull-out date for Iraq...

[backstop]

holmes -

In case you may feel I'm ignoring your sound post or disagreeing with its focus, I'm not.

I congratulate you on the foresight to invest in land. Wish I could run to anything like as much
- not for perverse pleasure of owning but for people-carrying capacity.
If and when it comes to it, subsistence farming needs lots of hard-working people !
Plenty of kids around is nice too.

However . . . .
what you recommend is a delight partly because it echoes so closely what I heard 35 years ago,
but this mess is where we've got to so far.

Not wishing to run down the radical fraction of my generation, I'll say that those who got out to the country
and got skilled enough, lucky enough and worked hard enough to keep going,
have helped maintain a skills base that is now of serious value.

But one of the early changes was that people started having babies, and got even busier.

Then came Reagan & Thatcher with the suppression of Carter . . . and people began to scrabble to get by . .

All in all, little if any effective rural political action has been acheived in politics, media, education, energy, horsebreeding etc.
(Honored individual exceptions of course, but ignored).


Those who stayed in the city for the most part had active idealism crushed out of them with Reagan /Thatcther event.
The city-based Non-Goventmental-Organisations [NGOs] (eg Greenpeace) where some people built careers
have for the most part been steered into being the best opposition that money could buy.
Note steered. In most cases . .

And in fact they never had a clue as to the reality of sustainability,
which IMV is integrating a productive way of life within the ecology,
rather than "saving" little photogenic parcels of it to keep the £25/yr subscriptions coming in . . .

So basically we failed to prevent this mess.

Sorry about that.

Mind you, doesn't weaken my commitment to radical change . . . .


If we're going to avoid repeating the cock-up of accepting Divide & Rule - that is :

busy rural life estranged from inspiring city activism and global co-operation,

we have to accept that rural life itself depends on the success of co-operative action at the national and global scale.

Anything less is asking to get shafted. Again.

Which would seem a pity, cos you probly wouldn't get the chance 30 years hence to tell younger people across the world
about the strategic cock-ups you saw,
like I'm doing now.


Wishing you best of luck,

Backstop


PS Hope your thinking how much more critical water is even than soil ?

[backstop]

Holmes -

sorry chap we've cross posted, your last went in while I was writing.

To put it simply, I personally reckon we've got a chance of seeing things turn round by 2012, 7 years hence.
By turn round I mean: turn round.

Which is not to say that whayever's happenning I'll give up then, but after that it seems likely it would get progressively more difficult physically
as symptoms of the various stupidities compound into confusion.

Another two pennorth.

Regards,

Backstop

[backstop]

RG -

I'll bet you a good log of firewood if you have a good look at the criteria, you're going to get it.

Bet ?

And by the way, the best way for people to learn is to work it out for themselves, so I'd be glad if those who get it refer to the Cindarella Option if posting on it, and don't give it away !

See how long that lasts . . .

Re the immense creativity of the Vietnam movement, it was a formative event for me too.
With a 100,000 others in London we'd have taken the US embassy if it hadn't been for the police horses charging and trampling us each time we broke through the massed police ranks.

I was disgusted by the abuse of returning vets though, as many people were, and when I learned of what they'd endured, being reduced to fragging their oficers mess-tents, and what the vietnamese people had endured, never giving up the fight, I realised how small a part the anti war movement had played.

Critical none the less.

Re Iraq as a focus I should have added that its a bone that Republican opinion will be very slow to let go, hardening their resistance to change.

We need an issue that they come to agree with, and then find Iraq to conflict with, so they drop it relatively easily.

Feingold I've only heard mentioned I'm afraid - I have a primary test - does he get dirt under his fingernails, and if so, how often and doing what ?

Regards,

Backstop

[holmes]

I agree with you backstop 100%. Im hoping for big change. but Im putting in a system for friends and family(not just blood family) where I can have clean water and food and a system in place where i can obtain these with minimal effort in my retirement years. Thermal mass infrastructure with solar and wind and hydro is key. I definately can not allow myself to be in a line waiting for the handouts. This is the end result of a civilization in overshoot. Hoards of bodies piled on top of one another "competing" for the last grain. For all our "technological" advancements. This IS the end result. No way out of that now. Overshoot is overshoot. No amount of programs or insane cornucopia will ever solve this. The only program that needs to be implemented now is breeding regulations. asap.

[backstop]

Holmes -

Pleasure to find company in these ideas.

Concur with your last and see the vital role of rural bases supporting & inspirng co-operative action at a distance.

Body bag prospect I avoid dwelling on - serves no purpose - we do what we can for the children not yet born, as well as those already here.

Re Breeding control, I'd differ with you on strategic grounds, but I guess we should start another population thread to discuss it- maybe:

"Amicable Breeding Management " ?

For now, I wonder if you've heard of a great Japanese use for gold ?

Tiny little tube valve - 5 min op to install, (turned off) . .
2min op to turn on when wanted . . . .
2min op to turn off again after successful conception & birth. . .

Regards,

Backstop

[retiredguy]

Hi Backstop,

Sounds as if we have traveled many of the same roads over the past 35-40 years. My wife and I have close friends in Norfolk, hope to see them next summer.

The log of firewood is a timely bet; I'm in the process of installing a woodburning stove in my fireplace (75% efficient as opposed to 10%). If you're betting that most people will wake up to the crisis before its too late, I'm afraid you're going to lose that bet.

The only hope is for the wealthiest people on the planet to VOUNTARILY reduce consumption. I don't know of a historical precedent for that.

I used the Iraq war as a example of an issue that could be used to create awareness of Peak Oil. My own opinion is that the US and Europe would be committing suicide to abandon Iraq at this point. It would almost certainly result in the fundamentalists in that region assuming control of the oil and would inevitability lead to the final World War.

Feingold is our junior senator. He, like McCain, with whom he wrote the latest campaign reform legislation, is known for his intergrity and marches to his own drummer. Like Clinton, he is a former Rhodes scholar. Rumors abound that he will run for president in 2008. I'm guesssing, but I think his call for a pull-out date regarding Iraq is an attempt to force the Bush administration to come clean as to the real reasons we have a military presence in Iraq.

Finally, Holmes, ultimately I'm in agreement with you. We are in overshoot, no doubt about that in my mind. Everything I've read about what happens in overshoot leads me to believe that we are in for some very unpleasant times.

[backstop]

RG -

Re: 'voluntarily' reducing energy consumption, it rather depends what they get in return as to how willing those who are currently richest are to make the change.

Critically it also depends on the rate of change they're facing up to committing themselves to, and what guarantees of probity there are, and so forth.

Not wishing to unveil Cindarella, I'll only say that Chirac, and the EU Parliament, have called for it publicly, while other nations support discreetlyas Washington v unkeen.

But it's coming through.

The choice is whether we pull together as nations, or fall apart into strife.
I don't do speculation on our chances, but I've nothing better to do this lifetime, so seems worth a bash . . .

I rather agree over Iraq. If I had my druthers I'd like to see Bush deposed and a competent serious US Govt handle the extrication. What matters is getting out without triggerring a series of compounding explosions.

Wonder if we could meet up when you come over - I'm based in the foothills of the Cambrian Mountains on the border of Wales - be good if we could rig it.

regards,

Backstop

[retiredguy]

Hi Backstop,

No love for Bush here. We can always hope the Europeans will lead the way.

Haven't been to your part of England, so I'd like to take you up on your invitation. Some good conversation over a pint would be nice.

I'll PM you as our plans firm up.

[holmes]

Hello RG and BS, u two. Denmark and sweden and iceland and norway might fare rather well in post PO.
Yes body count has no purpose. Just hope folks understand what overshoot holds in store. Nothing to screw around with ideological cornucopian "experiments". lots of peoples lives on the line. Yes its about consuming less. as soon as I have the one property deal done I am going to most probably drop out of my nice position and benefits and retirement. Its all Oil money anyway. Ill keep my investments in alternatives and sustainable technologies just for kicks. I mean My job will be around for some years but i have mega work to do to get off the grid 100%.
its some very hard choices indeed. stick around in society and die or get out while you still can and have a better chance of living. short term sacrifices vs long term sacrifices?
Its choices others made in all the old emnpires as well. hows across the pond doing?
hard choices indeed. when to bail? when not to bail?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('retiredguy', '
')
The only hope is for the wealthiest people on the planet to VOUNTARILY reduce consumption.

[RdSnt]

Thanks for the invite Backstop.

I got rid of our car a few years ago, not because of a desire to conserve fuel in this case but because it was a sensible thing to do in Toronto where public transit rocks.
I'm rebuilding our house, insulating and upgrading, myself. Partly because I have the skills and experience and partly because it's the only way we can afford it. I love the work as well.
We have a productive garden and we can our own vegetables. We have homesteaded in the past and essential I'm recreating that lifestyle here in the big city. I have to ignore some regulations, but they aren't big ones, and homesteading in the city is turning out to be quite practical and sensible.

Internationally we need to support organization such as the UN to lend stability and legitimacy to many of the changes that will be forced on us all.

Due to problems stemming from peak oil and global warming I would re-vamp the purpose of our militias to be rapid responders. The disaster in New Orleans is an example of the problems we are going to face with increasing frequency. This change isn't just to have systems in place to respond but as an educational and awareness strategy for participants and the public. I believe there are large numbers of people, particularly in first world countries who would gladly volunteer and participate in humanitarian, emergency response militias.

We should globally adopt the IPV10 internet address protocol. What this would allow us all to have is our own, unique IP address. Why is this important? Each of us, with the use of modern communications infrastructure and equipment can be an internationally accessible hub of information and news. Disssemination and rapid sharing of information is critical to all our survival in this growing crisis.

I am an advocate of appropriate technology, not a return to the "good old days" which were not good at all. Nor am I a supporter of blindly adopting every latest gadget. We have the knowledge now to choose which modern devices and discoveries are appropriate and which old, and sometimes antique, solutions are better.
Converting our fishing fleets to return to sail is a good example. No, don't go back to the very dangerous old methods, adapt sail using modern engineering knowledge and use modern materials, where appropriate. Hemp rope makes alot of sense, but cotton sails don't. Wooden hulls are better but use modern epoxies rather than pitch.

Considering the congestion in our cities, horse drawn transport is sensible again. I'm advocating that Toronto use horse drawn garbage collectors. It's economically appropriate. Horse are self-maintaining, they travel at about the same speed as a garbage truck on collection and they only need one operator. Horses are intelligent and can learn the routes and essentially drive themselves. I've used horses in the past and this is very doable.
You divide the city into sections served by teams of horses with central collection hubs where they dump their garbage, from which trucks can haul large loads away.

I believe we need to fully and vigorously support space research and human exploration. I do not agree that we can retreat from progress, the human race will die if we go in that direction.
We need the dreams and drives and dangers that come from exploring the unknown.
I'm not a support or have faith in attempts to manage population reduction. Attempts in the past have failed and are grossly unfair, that way lies beliefs in eugenics and equally horrendous ideas.
Nature is going to force us to reduce and that is the way we must go, with the flow of our own nature and the globes stamp of authority on how many of us will live each year. There will be great suffering, but then there is each year anyways.
There is a human demand to expand and progress, to deny that is to die. Space exploration is the only viable means of sustaining the passion to live as humans that we have remaining to us.

We must all advocate the deliberate husbandry, and the ensuing responsibility, of the entire planet. There are no wild places left on the planet and thus it falls to us to acknowledge and take up the task of managing the biosphere.
A prime example of how this works is to look to Japan. Many people believe the Japanese are great conservators and this is simply untrue. The y have for centuries heavily manipulated their environments. That many areas of Japan seem wild and natural is because the Japanese chose to have it that way and invest to maintain that illusion. Their environment is a consciously maintained place. That is what we are going to have to do to the entire planet.
We cannot go back, return to the "Cave". We will become extinct that way.
We cannot unmake the thread.

[RdSnt]

Powerdown is a utopian fantasy that distracts from the pragmatic solutions that we should be concentrating on.
We cannot step outside the systems that have grown organically over centuries. We use gas engines now and they haven't been around all that long historically. However, they didnt' spring onto the market fully formed and globally available. They came from other systems and existing infrastructures. And those earlier systems themselves derived from exisiting infrastructures.

We need to change from within. Therefore there needs to be a drive to extract the very best energy efficiencies from the systems we have. This will lead to changes. This is the direction of least resistance, working within the exisiting corporate, competitive mindset, where advantage is the driver.
There is a clear competitive advantage to a trucking company to be using trucks that are 10% more fuel efficient that their competitors.


All investment decisions, all goods manufactured, all manufacturing processes should be mandated to have a EROEI assessment.
You will find that large scale manufacture of solar cells is not a practical solution nor does it have a positive EROEI.

The majority of the population believes mony and energy are equivalent.
Because the price of a barrel of oil is $70+ then it makes good sense to extract oil from the Alberta tar sands. However, it doesn't make any sort of sense because the EROEI is, at present, so close to zero that you get a better return from using the gas used as feedstock and heat, by piping it directly to market. The tar sands should be abandoned.
Similarly, solar cells use petroleum products to manufacture yet return and negative EROEI.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', '
')We need to change from within. Therefore there needs to be a drive to extract the very best energy efficiencies from the systems we have. This will lead to changes. This is the direction of least resistance, working within the exisiting corporate, competitive mindset, where advantage is the driver.

[deconstructionist]

i think part of the community solution is quite simple and often overlooked (maybe not by some people here but by most average US citizens). take part in your local government! the grassroots starts at the most local level. building self-sustaining communities doesn't happen from the top down--it happens from the bottom up or not at all.

wednesday the wife and i rode our bikes downtown to a community forum with Q/A and debate with candidates for councilpeople and mayor... elections coming up soon.

[holmes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deconstructionist', 'i') think part of the community solution is quite simple and often overlooked (maybe not by some people here but by most average US citizens). take part in your local government! the grassroots starts at the most local level. building self-sustaining communities doesn't happen from the top down--it happens from the bottom up or not at all.

wednesday the wife and i rode our bikes downtown to a community forum with Q/A and debate with candidates for councilpeople and mayor... elections coming up soon.

[EnviroEngr]

Segue to [MISC]: http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic12543.html

{split per request, dividing line difficult to discern; EE}

[deMolay]

So far and the facts will bare this out, the UN has and cannot accomplish anything. I say no to any kind of global pie in the sky UN type community sharing arrangement. Let nature takes it's course. Let the billions die off, the earth would be a better place. Setting up an elite group to administer the oil and gas is a fool's idea and will never work. It would make some like Coffee Annan very rich and the rest would beg for their bread. I think your ideas are very Marxist. Communism has never worked anywhere in the world. Left wing Socialist ideas have seen the wholesale slaughter of millions and millions of people by elite socialist/communist demi-gods. Hitler/Stalin/Mao. Rubbish.

[katkinkate]

Lots of interesting ideas here.

What came to my mind was a grass roots style group that could create and maintain links with the various ecovillages, intentional communites and small community initiatives (city farms, co-operative housing projects. etc) world wide and provide a framework to allow sharing of knowledge and support to lobby the relevant government authorities where needed. They could publish various manuals and low tech/alternative D.I.Y. plans and hold other already published resources in a reference library for use by any registered party for free and anyone else for a small price.

They could become a central contact for various other initiatives like the seed saver organisations and nurseries, alternative energy groups, organic farmer co-ops, local activist groups, whatever...

For example if you want to get approval for a composting toilet on your property you can use the reference library to research designs and also get the papers you need together to present to the local council for permission. It could make it easier for various indivuals and small groups to make the changes they want without having to duplicate the research done by everyone else who wanted to go down this path. A volunteer branch reference library (in each country/global region) could be the initial point of contact who would have some details of legal requirements in their designated area and what designs are acceptable and would have a catalogue of available references from the central Library that holds the main collection. The branch library might hold some of the most useful texts, papers and journals relevant to their area.

As the movement grows they may be able to provide support for lobbying the governments for changes to rules to make more ecofriendly communites more viable and even make some changes in things, like building standards.

But I think a specialty built reference library and support network to pull together all the knowledge and experience gained by the various eco projects worldwide as a good starting point.