by pup55 » Wed 22 Sep 2004, 04:43:43
If you believe TS is going to HTF it makes an enormous difference how sudden the strain is put on the system, and the corporate system we have of doing things makes it really difficult to get anything innovative accomplished fast, especially on a big scale, because the whole system is set up for risk minimization.
If you need to borrow any money to do the innovation, it is especially annoying, because all of these mega-sized corporations have to meet internally-established rate of return limits on any capital investments, otherwise the analyists tell you to forget it. So in the tire example above, for the tire companies or suppliers, whatever innovation you have is pretty much limited to the equipment available, which cuts down on your options to do things like improve rolling resistance without screwing up treadwear.
The stupid part is, that these internal threshholds are all based on the past 5 years or so of experience, and do not take into account some dramatic event that might happen in the future that will change the underlying assumptions, such as the $5 gas. You have to convince these invertebrate analysts two things: one, that the event will occur, and two, that the event will be sufficiently permanent to give you a calculated predictable rate of return (not just a spike). Their boss, the corporate bigwigs, have to sign off on this too, and they are an even harder sell, because most of them got where they were by making no risky decisions whatsoever, and riding the tide.
If young Mr. H. Ford were to go to the current Ford Co. analysts, and propose the River Rouge factory, they would laugh him out of the building. Reason: they could not, like Ford did, foresee rule-changing events in the future that might make the whole thing a success. The old time robber barons had a way of making this work.
If you go into today’s green eyeshade types, and propose an innovation that will take advantage of some supposed oil shock that is going to happen in about 3 years, they will roll on the floor. They would much rather buy out a competitor, or buy back their own stock, and try to shrink their way into greatness. What they do not know is that if the event is sufficiently serious to potentially screw up their base business, they could end up in Chapter 11 before they have time to fix the problem (ref: airlines). Ironically, this very resistance to change will be their downfall.
Now, there is a sliver of a chance. If the event is sufficently gradual, and prolonged, some of these reptiles might wake up and adjust their internal threshhold rates so you can get something accomplished. Seems like a long shot though.
Of course, maybe they are right. Maybe the future will be like the past, and the PO crowd is all wet.