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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Tires, The Wheels We Roll On

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Sat 18 Sep 2004, 09:18:36

Freight rates are not consistent throughout the industry. All trucking rates are contractually agree to. ie; the freight industry favors large firms who move large volumes of freight.

How much you pay for freight (and fuel surcharges which are a percentage of freight rates) depends on who you are. A large company with high volumes will get a bulk rate discount, they also have leverage to say whether or not they will pay accessorial charges. Rates also depend on competition. If the only way to get business it to take it away from someone else you will have a lower price to move freight. As well if you pay your bills on time consistently you can negotiate a better rate than if people have to chase you.

The point being; the larger the company & the better they pay the bills the lower the real rates (and fuel surcharge). Imagine buying milk in this way: The bum will pay $1.30, the average customer $1.00, and the millionaire $0.80.

Higher fuel costs will effect the smallest producers first. Inefficient and poorly run companies will bear a higher loss than large and efficient firms.
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Unread postby dmtu » Sat 18 Sep 2004, 09:53:17

Here's some more thought for you on tires.

In the surface mining industry we use tires that are about 13 feet in diameter, they cost somewhere in the neighborhood of 18-25 thousand dollars apiece. Face up to it, if you haven't already, if it isn't grown it's mined. If you have electric in your home you have copper and of course coal consumption. If there is sheet rock in your dwelling, everything metal, phosphorous for fertilizer, etc.

http://www.nevadamining.org/you/minerals.html

In the good old days rail was used in large open pit operations. Along about the 1960 large trucks became a mining revolution because you didn't need all of those people to move the rail lines each time you moved down a level or started a new layback. the mine where I work has been in operation for about 100 years and, is the largest man made excavation in the world. Historically employment was about 9000 people, today the whole place operates on about 900, due to the efficiency of large haul trucks. Converting back to rail would require a huge investment not only in the rail infrastructure but in the loading machines which, are far too large for loading rail cars.

I suppose your imagination can carry you from there but with a shortage in rubber compounds there will necessarily be a shortage in the materials mined.
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Unread postby The_Virginian » Sun 19 Sep 2004, 05:25:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o if this is the case, the 2% fuel economy improvement should give them about an extra $9 million. So, in theory, $9 million divided by 280,000 tires gives about $31 per tire that they should be willing to pay for the innovation that gives them the improved mileage.


Except you forgot to factor in a companies PROFIT.

They wont lift a finger to sroke a check if you don't convince them the new tires stroke the Corprate bottom line.

I agree, and it is logical to say, that Desiel prices will have to go higher befor any company takes a 2% efficiency gain seriously..and then you really know we are up the creek when that comes about :!:

Spec, Great post. I did not know the eficiency-Emissions debate was so opposed to one annother. Corprate websites like us to think we get both, and that's "progress" {Sigh}
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Unread postby The_Virginian » Sun 19 Sep 2004, 05:37:36

Such,

Amigo, I do have a question or two about retreads and tires in general:

A) which brand is it unsafe to retread a car tire even once?

B) Would my car tire re-tread that came off in the highway pose a hazzard to others?

C) Which brand has the best "wall", which brand is best overall? Do some brands make a cappy cheapo tire, and a great high priced tire?


D) Have "firestone/ bridgestone" really come up in qaulity since the Japanese bought them (i had BAAAD experiances with 2 Bridgestones)?

E) Do perelli tire really hve soft treads for traction?

D) Have you ever tried Kleber tires ? (I think thier crud IMHO)

Thanks in advance,
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Unread postby pup55 » Wed 22 Sep 2004, 04:43:43

If you believe TS is going to HTF it makes an enormous difference how sudden the strain is put on the system, and the corporate system we have of doing things makes it really difficult to get anything innovative accomplished fast, especially on a big scale, because the whole system is set up for risk minimization.

If you need to borrow any money to do the innovation, it is especially annoying, because all of these mega-sized corporations have to meet internally-established rate of return limits on any capital investments, otherwise the analyists tell you to forget it. So in the tire example above, for the tire companies or suppliers, whatever innovation you have is pretty much limited to the equipment available, which cuts down on your options to do things like improve rolling resistance without screwing up treadwear.

The stupid part is, that these internal threshholds are all based on the past 5 years or so of experience, and do not take into account some dramatic event that might happen in the future that will change the underlying assumptions, such as the $5 gas. You have to convince these invertebrate analysts two things: one, that the event will occur, and two, that the event will be sufficiently permanent to give you a calculated predictable rate of return (not just a spike). Their boss, the corporate bigwigs, have to sign off on this too, and they are an even harder sell, because most of them got where they were by making no risky decisions whatsoever, and riding the tide.

If young Mr. H. Ford were to go to the current Ford Co. analysts, and propose the River Rouge factory, they would laugh him out of the building. Reason: they could not, like Ford did, foresee rule-changing events in the future that might make the whole thing a success. The old time robber barons had a way of making this work.

If you go into today’s green eyeshade types, and propose an innovation that will take advantage of some supposed oil shock that is going to happen in about 3 years, they will roll on the floor. They would much rather buy out a competitor, or buy back their own stock, and try to shrink their way into greatness. What they do not know is that if the event is sufficiently serious to potentially screw up their base business, they could end up in Chapter 11 before they have time to fix the problem (ref: airlines). Ironically, this very resistance to change will be their downfall.

Now, there is a sliver of a chance. If the event is sufficently gradual, and prolonged, some of these reptiles might wake up and adjust their internal threshhold rates so you can get something accomplished. Seems like a long shot though.

Of course, maybe they are right. Maybe the future will be like the past, and the PO crowd is all wet.
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Unread postby pup55 » Wed 22 Sep 2004, 06:03:24

sorry, I almost never post without a lot of data and references, but this one time I just had to vent.
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What about tires

Unread postby deMolay » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 21:59:39

How would you work your way around tires for vehicles. Would you fill them with foam etc. Any ideas?
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Re: What about tires

Unread postby frankthetank » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 22:30:37

Metal wheels? Real rubber from trees?

I think that gasoline will become scarce before tires do...make sure you have a set of spare tires for the bike :lol:
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Re: What about tires

Unread postby pip » Mon 14 Nov 2005, 10:57:33

I think even an old worn out tire will work just fine on a horse-drawn wagon.
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Re: What about tires

Unread postby spear » Mon 14 Nov 2005, 12:25:40

Theres going to be plenty of tires around for scavenging,recycling,retreading.
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Re: What about tires

Unread postby fossilnut2 » Mon 14 Nov 2005, 12:30:03

Try a store: :lol:

I' ll be buying my tires at Walmart. I like the warranty and have used it a couple times.
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Re: What about tires

Unread postby TnAndy » Mon 14 Nov 2005, 14:29:00

They will dryrot long after the oil to roll them runs out.
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Re: Tire shortage a 'big' problem

Unread postby Starvid » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 01:25:46

Ooooold news. This has been a problem for at least two years.

Google "peak tires".
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Re: Tire shortage a 'big' problem

Unread postby Starvid » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 01:40:37

Sorry then. I just wanted to add that this is not a new problem, but one the mining industry has been struggling with for at least two years. Thankfully, with metal prices were they are, they can pass the costs on.
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Re: Tire shortage a 'big' problem

Unread postby strider3700 » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 15:00:20

It's been a long time since I looked into peak tires but wasn't the issue not the cost of the tires but of limits to manufacturing? Of course the companies will just pass the costs on. I think they couldn't get the tires built fast enough to keep up with demand.
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Re: Tire shortage a 'big' problem

Unread postby jkibbe » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 00:11:55

Yeah, too bad natural rubber has to be shipped from halfway around the world and synthetic rubber is a product from natural gas and petroleum!
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Re: Tire shortage a 'big' problem

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 00:49:12

Welcome to the forum, jkibbe, and good point--one way or the other, it's going to take a lot of fossil fuel to get tires to market in the US. Do you have any info on renewed interest in the natural stuff?
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