[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'W')e'd better start getting used to the idea of paying $10 for a box of cornflakes.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'W')ith only 15 acres you won't be able to take advantage of the economics of scale. Your crop will cost far more to raise per acre than someone with 150 acres or 1500 acres.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', ' '). . . $10 a bushel, gross $~12,000... I'm pretty sure you're past break-even at that point; that is unless ferilizer goes nuts.. . . .etc.

[Ludi]

Food will always be valuable, R, even moreso in the future. Figure out a way to grow food on that acreage without fossil fuels (or very little) and you'll be able to make a living.

[joewp]

I just watched a program on National Geographic Channel that showed some new packaging is being made out of...

Corn.

[fletch961]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')eah, I know. I've done the math. Still one could wish. $10 per box of corn flakes makes you wonder though, currently the box is about $3; so that would be $10 a bushel, gross $~12,000...

[Heineken]

Good post, fletch.

The basic point is that as energy prices rise and the resource base crumbles in the face of infinite demand, the economic laws we've assumed are universal and permanent gradually fall apart.

And with them the dreams of El Dorado in a cornfield.

[fletch961]

Actually Heineken I was agreeing with AgentR and I don't see any breakdown in economic theory. At some price point AgentR will be motivated to plant his 15 acres ($10 a bushel?), same I will be motivated to plant corn on the land I have up north ($6 a bushel?), same as thousand of farmers will be motivated to remove acres from the CPR($3-5 a bushel). None of these price points come anywhere near what it would required to get a box of cornflakes up to $10 a box ($150+ a bushel).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he basic point is that as energy prices rise and the resource base crumbles in the face of infinite demand

[Heineken]

Demand for a commodity becomes "infinite" when the population's inelastic level of need for it can no longer be met. This will happen when we reach post-PO collapse, both economic and environmental.

I agree that most of the cost of a box of cornflakes is accounted for by things other than corn, but most of those other things are also commodities or commodity-based. It's a vicious circle.

[grabby]

I have heard many times hear that demand can only equal supply.
I am not an economist, and it must be a definition problem.

two scenarios:

Ascenario A:
A chicken farmer raises 100 eggs a week. The store comes and buys 100 eggs a week. Supply and demand is 100 eggs a week.

Scenario B:

A chicken farmer raises 100 eggs a week. at the fence on his property sit 43 housewives with whit hadkerchiefs going "YOHOO!" I want a dozen eggs.

the demand is for 516 eggs a week but he only produces 100 eggs a week

you going to tell me the deman in scenario B is only 100?

Sounds like the arabs and their oil, they say THEY ONLY WANTED TO BUY SO MUCH when there was no more to sell.

technically the supply and demand is the same in both situations but in the real world it is not the same at all at all.
not the same at all.


so how in economic terms can you differentiate these two situations?


just wondering.

[frankthetank]

Pretty soon farmers will start growing corn on top of corn (vs beans) and then yields should? probably drop from year to year.

I read this last night
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S. corn crop is forecast at 10.7 bln bu, down 1% from October and 3% lower than last year.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', 'I') have heard many times hear that demand can only equal supply.
I am not an economist, and it must be a definition problem.

two scenarios:

Ascenario A:
A chicken farmer raises 100 eggs a week. The store comes and buys 100 eggs a week. Supply and demand is 100 eggs a week.

Scenario B:

A chicken farmer raises 100 eggs a week. at the fence on his property sit 43 housewives with whit hadkerchiefs going "YOHOO!" I want a dozen eggs.

the demand is for 516 eggs a week but he only produces 100 eggs a week

you going to tell me the demand in scenario B is only 100?

[Heineken]

But what if the supply of eggs, and the ability of the world to supply eggs, falls permanently below the number of eggs people want to buy? And what if they can't find enough substitutes to meet their nutritional demands?

Then demand exceeds supply---forever, irrespective of price. At least until the population crashes sufficiently.

The conventional laws of economics break down before such scenarios. You need a new economics that factors in ecological principles---principles that today's economics textbooks totally ignore.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'B')ut what if the supply of eggs, and the ability of the world to supply eggs, falls permanently below the number of eggs people want to buy?

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '
')Then they would have broken down a long time ago. Folks around here are, however, not quite ready to accept that die-off is part of those econmic laws.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'Y')ou don't often get many economists that are willing to state that part of the laws. That's part of the problem with economists, they never state the entire story.

[fletch961]

Link

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')retty soon farmers will start growing corn on top of corn (vs beans) and then yields should? probably drop from year to year.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'B')ut what if the supply of eggs, and the ability of the world to supply eggs, falls permanently below the number of eggs people want to buy?

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fletch961', 'Y')ou answered the question yourself. Last time I checked there was 30 million acres in the CRP. Many of those acres are up for renewal this year.