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Three Cheers for Peak Oil!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Three Cheers for Peak Oil!

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 13 Jun 2009, 22:20:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'J')oewp. The problem is finding a replacement or substitute for oil.


Graeme, there is no substitute for oil. Either we find a way to live at a much reduced energy level and reduce our population as humanely as possible, or both will be forced on us by circumstances. Like mos, I appreciate your posting of these hopeful projects and articles. Unlike mos, I think they're wastes of resources that could otherwise be used to mitigate the impact of peak oil.

Of course, since 99% of the world is in complete denial of the predicament, we're not going to mitigate the problem, we're going to step on the gas right over the cliff and do everything possible to make the problem even worse.

That's why I'm well stocked up on popcorn. [smilie=new_popcornsmiley.gif]

There are substitutes for oil. We've been talking about them on this board for a long time. We will substitute oil for them gradually. These are of course biofuels (e.g. ethanol, biodiesel, butanol, etc.), natural gas and ultimately hydrogen. Electric vehicles, conservation, and more efficient use of oil will also help in the short to medium term. Oil supply will not fall suddenly unless there is war or terrorism. The latter are our biggest threat. We have to trust that the political leaders in USA will make the right decisions in this regard.

Thank you also for appreciating my posts. If Cuba can survive without oil and with limited resources, then we can too.
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
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Re: Three Cheers for Peak Oil!

Unread postby ki11ercane » Sat 13 Jun 2009, 23:40:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'J')oewp. The problem is finding a replacement or substitute for oil.


Graeme, there is no substitute for oil. Either we find a way to live at a much reduced energy level and reduce our population as humanely as possible, or both will be forced on us by circumstances. Like mos, I appreciate your posting of these hopeful projects and articles. Unlike mos, I think they're wastes of resources that could otherwise be used to mitigate the impact of peak oil.

Of course, since 99% of the world is in complete denial of the predicament, we're not going to mitigate the problem, we're going to step on the gas right over the cliff and do everything possible to make the problem even worse.

That's why I'm well stocked up on popcorn. [smilie=new_popcornsmiley.gif]

There are substitutes for oil. We've been talking about them on this board for a long time. We will substitute oil for them gradually. These are of course biofuels (e.g. ethanol, biodiesel, butanol, etc.), natural gas and ultimately hydrogen. Electric vehicles, conservation, and more efficient use of oil will also help in the short to medium term. Oil supply will not fall suddenly unless there is war or terrorism. The latter are our biggest threat. We have to trust that the political leaders in USA will make the right decisions in this regard.

Thank you also for appreciating my posts. If Cuba can survive without oil and with limited resources, then we can too.


Graeme, discussion is wonderful, but that's about all that's being done. The discussion should have started in the fall of 1949 and culminated with the oil taps going silent in spring of 2009. Right now it's balls out on oil, natural gas, and coal, with a pinch of nuclear, and even a smaller pinch of solar/wind/tidal.

Our species will survive no doubt. However, our current population level, economic design, environmental status, and cultural footprint will not. And the best news is even if you're five years old none of us are going to be here to see any of it, but we will be here for a little while to suffer through it.
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Re: Three Cheers for Peak Oil!

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Mon 15 Jun 2009, 19:31:29

Yeah because the average KFC-eating American will accept living like Cubans. Yah right! :lol:
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Re: Three Cheers for Peak Oil!

Unread postby ki11ercane » Mon 15 Jun 2009, 19:40:04

Our species lacks so much intelligence and the ability not to do something stupid that doing the opposite is actually now deemed a "super power."
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Re: Three Cheers for Peak Oil!

Unread postby joewp » Tue 16 Jun 2009, 13:15:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '
')There are substitutes for oil.


Too little, and much too late.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', ' ')We've been talking about them on this board for a long time. We will substitute oil for them gradually. These are of course biofuels (e.g. ethanol, biodiesel, butanol, etc.),


Please call these by their proper name, that is "food". When you devote land to biofuels, it's land taken away from the food supply of humans or other creatures on the planet.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', ' ')
natural gas


Just another depleting resource and as such, it's not a answer, it's a continuation of the problem of resource draw-down.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', ' ') and ultimately hydrogen.


A pipe dream. You have to use energy to liberate hydrogen, so you just might as well use the primary energy source (usually NG) and save the loss of energy converting it to hydrogen. Of course, we're back to depleting resources again. That's not a sustainable course, you know.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', ' ') Electric vehicles,

Another pipe dream. You have to use something to generate the electricity and right now 80% of the electricity generated in the US is from depleting natural resources. I'd even go as far as 90+% because hydropower is also a depleting natural resource once the dams fill up with silt.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', ' ') conservation, and more efficient use of oil will also help in the short to medium term.

Ever hear of the Jevons paradox?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n economics, the Jevons Paradox (sometimes called the Jevons effect) is the proposition that technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to increase (rather than decrease) the rate of consumption of that resource.




$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', ' ')Oil supply will not fall suddenly unless there is war or terrorism.

Or there's a huge economic downturn that makes it unprofitable to drill for or pump oil out of the ground that nobody can pay for. That's happening already and it's going to get worse.
In your dreamy world it seems it's bau while all these changes take place gradually. Haven't you noticed that's not what's happening at all? The whole shebang is unraveling, and we're still on the oil production plateau. Imagine what happens when depletion at 2%, 5% or 8% sets in?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', ' ')The latter are our biggest threat. We have to trust that the political leaders in USA will make the right decisions in this regard.

You're not serious, are you?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'T')hank you also for appreciating my posts. If Cuba can survive without oil and with limited resources, then we can too.

In Cuba, 90% of the people don't have cars and live close to their work (if any). My New Jersey suburb will make Cuba look like paradise in a few years.
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Re: Three Cheers for Peak Oil!

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 16 Jun 2009, 18:28:31

joewp/pstarr,

Substitutes for oil are growing. These will ultimately be algae-based and likely to be grown in vats. You don't know that it is too late. You are guessing.

Natural gas will last for decades. See OF posts. Yes this resources is finite and is a temporary bridge.

Hydrogen will be made from biological sources or something that is not electrolysis.

Electric vehicles will be recharged from renewable energy sources.

Regarding Jevons, see posts in this thread.

Economic downturn is temporary.

Regarding geopolitical threats, I am serious that US leaders will make the right decisions.

The US and developed world have much more resources than Cuba had, so the energy transition will be easier.

It is not a perfect world so there will be errors of judgement from time to time. Eventually these will be corrected. Instead of focusing on all negative incidents, try looking for and at positive developments that are also happening. I'm trying my best to find and post these.
Last edited by Graeme on Tue 16 Jun 2009, 20:35:07, edited 1 time in total.
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
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Re: Three Cheers for Peak Oil!

Unread postby ki11ercane » Tue 16 Jun 2009, 18:51:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'j')oewp/pstarr,

Substitutes for oil are growing. These will ultimately be algae-based and likely to be grown in vats. You don't know that it is too late. You are guessing.

Natural gas will last for decades. See OF posts. Yes this resources is finite and is a temporary bridge.

Hydrogen will be made from biological sources or something that is not electrolysis.

Electric vehicles will be recharged from renewable energy sources.

Regarding Jevons, see posts in this thread.

Economic downturn is temporary.

Regarding geopolitical threats, I am serious that US leaders will make the right decisions.

The US and developed world have much more resources than Cuba had, so the energy transition will be easier.

It is not a perfect world so there will be errors of judgement from time to time. Eventually these will be corrected. Instead of focusing on all negative incidents, try looking for and at positive developments that are also happening. I'm trying my best to find and post these.


Graeme, you're 100% correct also. The only factor that no one put into either responses was that this will all work when the human population is around the 1-2 billion mark. With the fact that the population of the planet will see ten billion by 2047, our planet cannot sustain itself and usher in all these happy smiley changes at 10 billion people. It can barely do it at 7 billion people. At our current population level, none of these things work. There is simply too much of us eating, pooping, and using energy.

You cannot sustain infinite growth on finite resources that you're trying to convert into an infinite or energy efficient source with all these mouths to feed. Fifty years ago, maybe. Today, no.
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Re: Three Cheers for Peak Oil!

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 16 Jun 2009, 19:40:52

Yes, this point has been raised before. We will have about 40 years to learn how to live in a sustainable manner. This is the time when world population is expected to peak. All our social, economic, environmental, political and energy systems must be working by then. I would welcome suggestions about how we will do this. I will ignore any further criticisms.
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
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