[DomusAlbion]

Read "No Blade of Grass" if you can find a copy. It’s a 1950's Sci-Fi apocalyptic novel set in England. It describes what this rust could bring about.

Dominus

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', '
')Lose 80% of worldwide wheat production and you've got your overshoot die back. It won't happen all at once. It will progress around the globe. Although, with planes, the spores could be transported on clothing anywhere overnight.

[RdSnt]

I'm not sure why people need to use the angle of a conspiracy.
This sort of problem is easily anticipated, particularly in a systemic collapse such as we are in.
In a general sense, neo-conservative economics have ruled the world for a few decades.
Here in Canada, whether it is liberals or conservatives, the neo-conservative economic model has been on top. Cutbacks in monitoring and quality control have been the norm. Corporations have cutback and outsourced, and the "free" market has controlled the future. This primarily means that the bottom line has taken precedence, in contrast to a focus on production.
The outcome of mono-cropping is easily compared to a company that makes only one widget. Once that widget is no longer desired the company collapses. There is no transition, no decline, the company simply stops.
A disease/fungus attacking a mono-crop, in this climate of neo-conservative, short-sighted, greed motivated, neglect, has only one outcome.

[Cid_Yama]

<i>If so, then it is quite likely, that rust will be deliberately spread by few apocalypse seeking peoples, possibly religious ones.</i>

For those of you intent on mass murder for a higher cause, you might want to read Kalki by Gore Vidal.

[Laughs_Last]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'I')'m still confused by some of the articles:

(1) Where is wheat rust known to be? In which countries?

(2) Is there any data on when the rust was first confirmed to be in those countries and what effect it has had on overall grain production? Basically, what percentage of wheat has been lost to the rust in what span of time?

(3) How fast is wheat rust spreading in Asia?

[Dukkha]

Report about this on BBC Radio 4 yesterday. You can listen to it at http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/news/worldt ... 080313.ram

[Cid_Yama]

...on 8 June 2007, Cyclone Gonu hit the Arabian peninsula, the worst storm there for 30 years.

“We know it changed the winds,” says Wafa Khoury of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome, because desert locusts the FAO had been tracking in Yemen blew north towards Iran instead of north-west as expected [...]. “We think it may have done that to the rust spores.” This means, she says, that Ug99 has reached Iran a year or two earlier than predicted. The fear is that the same winds could have blown the spores into Pakistan, which is also north of Yemen, and where surveillance of the fungus is limited.

In Iran, the spore will encounter barberry bushes, which trigger explosive reproduction of Ug99 (and more potential for mutation). From Iran to Pakistan, and then to India (much more dependent upon wheat) and to China. From China, it can blow to North America (as dust and soot do already). The fungus ignores current strains of wheat with fungal resistance, because it initially faced monocultures of wheat with single markers for resistance, allowing for easy mutation and replication.

http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/cascio20080407/

[kjmclark]

I posted this on the thread on potential Iran war, but they didn't get it:

So let's turn this around for a second. Recently, there have been announcements that UG99 has been found in wheat fields in Southwest Iran.

Iranian wheat production last year was about 15 million tons, about 64% of their total grain production (Iran Daily)

Here is a map of the upper level winds over Iran:


Here is a graphic from New Scientist on UG99


Here is a graphic of the wheat rust's lifecycle from Wikipedia.


Now, the Iranians have to be finding this on their winter wheat, since they will be just putting spring wheat in the ground now or soon. If they're finding it on their winter wheat, it has to be on the wheat grass leaves, since the stem doesn't come up until the late spring. So what they're finding is fields that are ruined before they actually set fruit, unless they apply large amounts of fungicide. Can the Iranians afford to apply large amounts of fungicide now?

Next, notice that the rust has two lifecycles. The asexual cycle is directly on wheat stems, but the sexual cycle uses barberry as a host plant. According to the Wikipedia entry on Barberry:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n Iran, the dried fruits, known as zereshk, are more widely used, imparting a tart flavor to chicken dishes.

Zereshk (زرشک) is the Persian name for the dried fruit of Berberis vulgaris, which are widely cultivated in Iran. Iran is the largest producer of zereshk and saffron in the world. Zereshk is the fruit of a type of barberry bush.

[Jenab6]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coonskincapp', 'T')his rust is planned and designed.

[Cid_Yama]

<b>Wheat Crop Failures Could be Total, Experts Warn</b>

On top of record-breaking rice prices and corn through the roof on ethanol demand, wheat is now rusting in the fields across Africa. Officials fear near total crop losses, and the fungus, known as Ug99, is spreading.

Wheat prices have been soaring this week on top of already high prices, and futures contracts spiked, too, on panic buying. Experts fear the cost of bread could soon follow the path of rice, the price of which has triggered riots in some countries and prompted countries to cut off exports.

David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors, said the deadly fungus, Puccinia graminis, is now spreading through some areas of the globe where "crop losses are expected to reach 100 percent.” Losses in Africa are already at 70 percent of the crop, Kotok said.

"The economic losses expected from this fungus are now in the many billions and growing. Worse, there is an intensifying fear of exacerbated food shortages in poor and emerging countries of the world,” Kotok told investors in a research note. "The ramifications are serious. Food rioting continues to expand around the world. We saw the most recent in Johannesburg. "So far this unrest has been directed at rising prices. Actual shortages are still to come.”

Last month, scientists met in the Middle East to determine measures to track the progress of "Ug99,” which was first discovered in 1999 in Uganda. The fungus has spread from its initial outbreak site in Africa to Asia, including Iran and Pakistan. Spores of the fungus spread with the winds, according science journal reports. According to the Food and Agriculture Office (FAO) of the United Nations, approximately a quarter of the world’s global wheat harvest is currently threatened by the fungus.

link

[deMolay]

This grim reaper has the potential to starve 100's of millions. http://www.globalrust.org/

[Cid_Yama]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tem rust has returned with a vengeance 50 years after it was thought to eradicated, and now called UG99, it is decimating wheat in Kenya and going viral by spreading to other countries surrounding Africa.

The diseases came back in 1999, and skipped across the Red Sea to Yemen in 2006 and was discovered in Iran last year.

Crop scientists say there is no defense at this time to stop its spread and are growing frustrated in their work on developing resistant strains. In about a year it can grow to huge levels under particular weather conditions.

After last year's food shortage caused partly from corn being diverted to ethanol and acreage used to grow other grains got taken up by corn, it resulted in food riots last year, the growing epidemic shows the vulnerability of the food supply in poorer countries.

Scientists were shocked in 1999 when it was discovered that wheat bred to resist stem rust fell to the fungus. That was the first sign something was wrong.

Researchers in South Africa and Minnesota recently found out why it was true. In the biological churning that constantly endows old pests with new genetic combinations, stem rust had acquired a scary power to break through the resistance that had guarded wheat for decades.

Close to eighty percent of Asian and African wheat varieties are now susceptible to the disease, and so is barley.

Almost a year ago the FAO confirmed that the fungus had spread to Iran and reported that "Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, all major wheat producers, are most threatened by the fungus and should be on high alert."

Contrary to regular rust infestations, which reduce but do not completely destroy yields, stem rust can eradicate a whole field.

Researchers have been working steadfastly to find new resistant plants to UG99, but after numerous trials, plants have been losing the battle, as farmers around the world fear the right conditions will devastate their crops.

[deMolay]

Up to 80% of all wheat production at risk. UG99 has spread and is well entrenched. Worldwide famine very possible now. http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Technology ... story.html

[rangerone314]

Ug99 was discovered in Uganda in 1999... what makes it a crisis now?

[rangerone314]

Doh!

Changes in rust after it spread to Kenya...

http://apex.oracle.com/pls/otn/f?p=2400 ... 1006,76748

Its in Iran now and may spread by prevailing east wind into India and Pakistan...

I'd be worried about those nihlistic AQ-types in Pakistan using that as a weap against US... (don't laugh -- from 1943 to 1968 I think the US developed wheat rust as a weapon, like the Mark-115 "feather" bomb)

[deMolay]

I think the reason for concern is this statement. [Scientists in Canada and around the world are racing to find a way to stop a destructive fungus that threatens to wipe out 80 per cent of the world's wheat crop, causing widespread famine and pushing the cost of such staples as bread and pasta through the roof.

Canadian officials say the airborne fungus, which is known as Ug99, has so far proved unstoppable, making its way out of eastern Africa and into the Middle East and Central Asia.

The fungus is now threatening areas that account for more than one-third of the world's wheat production, and scientists in North America say it's only a matter of time before the pest hits the breadbasket regions of North America, Russia and China.

"I think it's important people start recognizing what a big threat this is. This could mean world famine. This is quite the deal," said Rob Graf, a research scientist with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's research centre in Lethbridge, Alta.

The United Nations calls Ug99 "a major threat" to world food security.

"Anything that one part of the world gets, another part of the world will eventually get," said Doug Robertson, president of The Grain Growers of Canada. "Stem rust can be a really devastating disease."

Ug99 -- first found in Uganda in 1999 -- is a type of stem rust. Spores from the fungus attach themselves to the stalk of a wheat plant and a pustule that causes the reddish-brown rust colour grows. The pustule takes over the plant's nutrient and water system to nurture more pustules and spores instead of grain.

Rust is a problem wheat growers have been dealing with since biblical times. Canadian wheat producers last dealt with a massive rust problem in the 1950s.

"Those producers who are challenged with feeding the world should be concerned about this," said Rick Istead, executive director of the Alberta Winter Wheat Producers Commission. "If this rust becomes rampant in North America, we believe all wheat types would be susceptible: spring and winter and durum wheat."

Whenever a new rust-causing fungus is discovered, scientists develop a new strain of wheat that can fight off the fungus.

They do this by introducing different genes into wheat plants using conventional breeding techniques, but that can be time-consuming, taking as many as 12 years to produce new pest-resistant wheat variants.

Scientists working for the U.S. Department of Agriculture have already tested 16,000 wheat varieties, trying to find the genetic combination that will beat back Ug99.

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation gave $26.8 million U.S. to Cornell University in New York to set up the Durable Rust Resistance in Wheat project.

"Resource-poor farmers are particularly vulnerable to wheat-stem disease, which has the potential to wipe out entire crops," said Dr. Rajiv Shah, director of agricultural development for the foundation's global development program.

Scientists at Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada are also working on the problem. The federal government gave the Morden Research Centre in Manitoba an additional $250,000 in funding this year to build new laboratory facilities specifically for Ug99 research.

Almost all the research in North America to develop new wheat strains is funded by governments.

There is little or no research money poured into wheat, grain growers say.

"This is one of the concerns that a lot of grower groups have," Istead said. "Cereals haven't had type or amount of research dollars spent on them because there's more of an attractive pull into corn and soybeans, just because of the return on investment."

© Copyright (c) The Ottawa Citizen

[deMolay]

Some good detail on wheat rust ug99. http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/08/u ... orlds.html

[copious.abundance]

Back at the ranch, wheat supplies are surging, and one would barely notice UG99 even existed.

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Wheat Drops to Lowest Since April 2007 as Global Supplies Swell
By Luzi Ann Javier

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat declined to the lowest since April 2007 as favorable weather in parts of the U.S., China and Australia boosts production potential amid rising stockpiles.

Above-normal temperatures in the U.S. southern and northern plains were forecast by DTN Research yesterday. That may help speed the spring wheat harvest and accelerate planting of winter wheat in the world’s largest exporter of the grain. Global stockpiles may rise to 186.6 million metric tons at the end of 2009-2010, the highest in eight years, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Sept. 11.

[...]

Global Production

Wheat output globally will exceed demand by 17.6 million tons in 2009-2010 as the U.S., Canada, Russia and Australia, the world’s four largest exporters, are forecast to expand production, the USDA forecast Sept. 11

Global exports will fall 14 percent to 121.1 million tons, from a year earlier as importers including those in North Africa and the Middle East boost production, the USDA said.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

BTW, deMolay's article should tell you something:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')...]

Ancient adversary

Farmers have been battling stem rust for as long as they have grown wheat. The fungus' ancestors infected wild grasses for millions of years before people began cultivating them for food, said Jorge Dubcovsky, professor of genetics and plant breeding at UC Davis.

"The pathogen keeps mutating and evolving," he said. "It's one of our biblical pests. This is not a small enemy."

[...]

[blukatzen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')n other words, farmers haven't been on the verge of doomsday for just a few years now, they've been on the verge of doomsday for thousands of years! Let me know when this thing wipes out the world's wheat crop. Meanwhile, I think I'll go read War and Peace.