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The U.S., energy producing superpower

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Cog » Sat 17 Jun 2017, 08:10:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')erhaps you could start your own thread and name it as you wish. I like the thread title just the way it is.


With your usual incoherent rambling; what are you talking about?


Have you already forgotten that you wanted an admin the change the title? Better get yourself checked out bro. A mind is a terrible thing to waste.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 17 Jun 2017, 08:49:45

The U.S. is a military superpower... starting to get very nervous about its status as an energy superpower.

The US senate just voted in favor of new sanctions against Russia. European companies that take part in North Stream 2 project that would pipe nat gas from Russia to Germany will now face US penalties.

European energy security is now controlled by Washington. Germany has objected and threaten the US with retaliations.

Kremlin called in the Security Council for an emergency meeting.

Things are starting to get really interesting.

Merkel will now just have to give Trump a nice blowjob. That is all there is to it. Or ?
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 17 Jun 2017, 12:51:32

@cog

Do you know what an object is? I'm not talking about the title of the thread. An object is appearing in all my posts and I am not putting it there. What a bunch of hair brained idiots.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 17 Jun 2017, 13:12:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he US senate just voted in favor of new sanctions against Russia.


That is a law that still has to pass the House and be signed by the President. Probably not going to happen. Some crazies in DC really want a war. They just keep regurgitating the same senseless crap over and over. If this idiocy is not reined in the US will destroy itself.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 17 Jun 2017, 13:24:55

Ed - "...superpower" is the ability to project that power around that world". FYI: The US Dept of Defense uses more fossil fuel then any other organization on the planet. It also has access to the majority of the oil in our SPR.

So your argument would be that the US projects little of its power around the world thru our military thanks to our access to fossil fuel? The US, with the #1 defense budget, that spends almost 3X as much as #2 China and almost 10X as much as #3 Russia? Is that what you really want to base your argument on that we ARE NOT an energy superpower using that access to hydrocarbons giving us "the ability to project that power around that world"?

Really??? LOL.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... penditures
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 17 Jun 2017, 14:55:03

Sure, the bill still has to go through the House and be signed by the POTUS.

I should perhaps had said... starting to get very nervous about its ability to be an energy producing superpower... but what's the point... now you will lecture me in energy production.

Anyway... the situation is starting to get more tense between the US and EU. The dialogue between the US and EU has started to deteriorate, some say that it has already collapsed.

Brexit was bad for US EU relations, some in the US Intelligence Community calls it KGBrexit. There is no trust towards Russia and little trust between the US and EU today.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 17 Jun 2017, 15:15:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is no trust towards Russia and little trust between the US and EU today.


You are 100% correct. Perhaps it is what happens when the world gets down to fighting over the scraps, but we are still deluding ourselves that everything is just fine. Ignoring reality doesn't mean that reality is going to ignore you.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 17 Jun 2017, 17:17:28

Political fallout from the senate sanctions bill:

"The president of Russia said that Russia is ready to unite with Europe".

"The Trump administration is calling the house for more flexible sanctions on Russia".

The funny thing is that Europe consists of tribes with different ethnicities, languages, cultures and religious sects (like Syria). We are just united by mistrust and hatred towards each others. :)

No. I know that is not fun. Just imagine what happens when the delusion disappears and panic kicks in.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 05:36:44

Shale oil and gas production is still uneconomic despite "advancement of technology". When the "sweet spots" are gone and they move out to produce from poorer shale the debt on their balance sheets explodes.

http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/upl ... 70209e.gif
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 09:31:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', 'S')hale oil and gas production is still uneconomic despite "advancement of technology". When the "sweet spots" are gone and they move out to produce from poorer shale the debt on their balance sheets explodes.

http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/upl ... 70209e.gif


Business decisions and costs and running an E&P company isn't the same thing as the economic viability of shale oil and gas development. While someone with zero oil and gas business or project development experience (like say Art Berman or the remnants of the TOD website that was literally laughed off the internet you reference) are expected to be ignorant of such basics, there is no need to propagate faux claims. Unless of course your MEANT to distract from the same facts that got TOD laughed off the internet? That would be more likely, based on your posting habits, 6 year old articles claiming things that then didn't happen, bad references and not knowing the quality of your sources, reliance on commentary rather than the science involved, etc etc.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 10:32:58

Everything is fine then. In the old economy E&P companies made money. In this new brave economy they lose money and that is fine.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 10:38:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')hale oil and gas production is still uneconomic despite "advancement of technology".


We don't have to wait for the sweet spots to be worked out to be sure that the shale industry is nothing more than a financial fiasco on par with MBS, and now the sub prime auto loan ponzi schemes. An industry that needs $1 trillion in investment to produce $362 billion annually in gross sales is a loser from the get-go. That is $1 trillion that the investors will never see again. It's a shame that so much of it came from window s and orphans, and pension funds. It is always those least able to bear the loss that gets conned into these schemes. There is nothing new about thieves and liars, it is just that they are getting so much bigger, and better at it with the advent of advancing technology.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 11:40:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', 'E')verything is fine then.


You can assemble that strawman to joust against if you'd like, but I never said everything was fine. Certainly everything isn't the crap storm that the peak oil movement has been claiming for more than a decade now, but no, everything is not fine. Read a newspaper or something, get some information from a place other than the circular references used in peakerville, none of this is HARD to understand, and you don't appear to have the level of self-delusion that pstarr suffers from, so there is hope for you yet.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', '
') In the old economy E&P companies made money. In this new brave economy they lose money and that is fine.


Obviously you weren't around in 1986 when bankruptcies and doom were the order of the day. The oil and gas drilling industry lost more jobs in the 1980's then steel and automobile manufacturing combined. Between 1985 and 1989 more than 50% of the oil producers in the US were no more. How about you get some facts about what E&P companies have done in the "old" economy, prior to pretending you know anything about the "new" one, whatever you think that might be.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 12:35:14

This is what I remember from 30 years ago.

http://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/video/d ... e-14868875

There are up-times and down-times economically. This is normal. Doomers seize upon any shred of negativity as being caused by peak-oil, though.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 14:53:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', 'S')hale oil and gas production is still uneconomic despite "advancement of technology". When the "sweet spots" are gone and they move out to produce from poorer shale the debt on their balance sheets explodes.

http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/upl ... 70209e.gif

Or when the sweet spots are gone, poorer spots won't be exploited commonly unless and until the price of crude rises high enough to justify the risk and expense of doing the production.

That's how business and markets work over time, for those who follow data and understand that the economy functions on basics like supply and demand.

And if some or many of them go bankrupt in the mean time, so what? That's what happens in volatile industries. It's not like the existing resources are going anywhere. And it's not like the technology (which continues to improve) used to exploit those resources is going away. And it's not like green energy sources won't continue to improve, which over time will help mitigate the global demand for oil.

But let's pretend none of that will happen, if reality gets in the way of the constant mantra of doom.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 15:19:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', 'S')hale oil and gas production is still uneconomic despite "advancement of technology". When the "sweet spots" are gone and they move out to produce from poorer shale the debt on their balance sheets explodes.

http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/upl ... 70209e.gif

Or when the sweet spots are gone, poorer spots won't be exploited commonly unless and until the price of crude rises high enough to justify the risk and expense of doing the production.


Sweet spot development in the Bakken began around 1956...and then petered out.

Of course, the crappier spots then got developed and led to one of the 2 largest producing fields in the Western Hemisphere. So sure, while the crappy, current Bakken development did require a higher price point to get started, you have just enunciated exactly why peak oil in the US was wrong....and for some reason, people never said that BEFORE it became obvious? Well, economists say it of course, but peak oilers can't stand them, because they know better than to use simplistic bell shaped curves that don't mimic oil production...to mimic oil production. Funny how the economists always knew that one, but Colin Campbell and Co. couldn't figure it out.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')That's how business and markets work over time, for those who follow data and understand that the economy functions on basics like supply and demand.


Yup. And why do you think, knowing this, that economists and their ideas that proved correct, were so discounted by the bell shaped curve zealots?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')And if some or many of them go bankrupt in the mean time, so what? That's what happens in volatile industries. It's not like the existing resources are going anywhere. And it's not like the technology (which continues to improve) used to exploit those resources is going away. And it's not like green energy sources won't continue to improve, which over time will help mitigate the global demand for oil.

But let's pretend none of that will happen, if reality gets in the way of the constant mantra of doom.


You can pretend what you'd like, the peakers did and look where it got them? Laughingstock being an understatement. But more interestingly, those of us who do the sciences and engineering and economics involved in these complex issues, tend to get called names by the zealots...? I wonder why? Jealousy at a display of critical and objective thinking perhaps? I've been touring the archives as of late, and am amazed at how poorly people that, as it turns out, speculated correctly on what was going to happen, were treated quite poorly. Jealousy being just one possible explanation, when zealotry bumps into analytics and science based thinking, or maybe just a raging instinct requiring herdthink in all things? That borders on peak oil being a religion, or at least cult-like, and itself is a topic of conversation on why peak oil worked out as it did, and those who are believers just can't let go.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby SRSroccoReport » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 16:33:16

U.S. Shale Energy Industry Is Choking On Debt & Interest Expense

Yeah... the Great U.S. Energy Superpower is choking on debt while it pays 75% of its operating cash just to service its INTEREST EXPENSE:

Image

A perfect example of CHOKING ON DEBT is none other than Continental Resources... the poster child of the Bakken. Continental Resources was only paying $13 million a year for its interest expense in 2007, however that has ballooned to $321 million last year. Remember, this is not PAYING DOWN DEBT... this is just servicing its debt.

Image

Yes.... the U.S. Superpower is being propped up by a massive amount of debt.

SRSroccoReport.com

https://srsroccoreport.com/warning-the- ... tay-alive/
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 16:45:34

@SRSroccoReport
This is in line with the Etp analysis and current observations from the Hills Group
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 18:03:36

I guess we all can agree on that things could be better and that the oil industry has a problem right now. We can't agree on what the problem is. For some the problem is cyclic. For some the production cost is too high. For some the problem is that the oil price is too low. For some the supply and demand is imbalanced. For some the problem is depletion of conventional oil. For some it's a net energy problem.

It is pointless for me to try to tell people in the industry what the problem is... since I have zero experience from the oil industry and since I have no solution to the problem.

I believe that it's a net energy problem.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 20:22:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') perfect example of CHOKING ON DEBT is none other than Continental Resources... the poster child of the Bakken. Continental Resources was only paying $13 million a year for its interest expense in 2007, however that has ballooned to $321 million last year. Remember, this is not PAYING DOWN DEBT... this is just servicing its debt.


OK. This doesn’t make sense according to Continental’s financial statements. I think the problem is that whoever is doing this analysis doesn’t understand depreciation and how it works. In 2016 Continental saw cashflow from sales of 2.05 billion but depreciation on assets was 1.7 billion so on the books their gross income shows up as being negative once you add in cost of goods sold. The problem with that is it confuses actual money with book value, not the same in the real world. In actual fact the cash on hand would be cash flow from sales minus cost of goods which ends up being about 1.5 billion by my quick estimation. And that falls in line with their EBITDA of 1.43 billion. So when you look at their interest expense of 320 million that ends up being 22% of EBITDA, not 75%. And Continental's interest expense has actually been growing at a much reduced rate year on year over the past 5 years.
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