[PrestonSturges]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Expatriot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', ' ')I'm lily white going back to the 1700s, so it doesn't worry me, but don't make any assumptions about what side I'll be on.

[Expatriot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Expatriot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', ' ')I'm lily white going back to the 1700s, so it doesn't worry me, but don't make any assumptions about what side I'll be on.

[Pretorian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', 'I')'m lily white going back to the 1700s, so it doesn't worry me, but don't make any assumptions about what side I'll be on.

[PrestonSturges]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Expatriot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Expatriot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', ' ')I'm lily white going back to the 1700s, so it doesn't worry me, but don't make any assumptions about what side I'll be on.

[PrestonSturges]

Very well. I'm too busy to start my own thread, but when I do, the mockery will be ruthless.

Meanwhile, I'm thinking up ways to mark Glenn Becks next rally, possibly with a Confederate flag burning.

[Ayoob]

Just a little update from our little family.

We're starting to make Christmas presents this year for family and friends. It's pretty much all going to be homemade, home canned stuff. Chili, jellies and jams, maybe a beer bread recipe in a jar, etc. I'm learning how to make sweet tea wine this year so we might ship off a little of that.

If I get my dehydrator running this weekend, I might do bags of jerky for everyone, too. London Broil's $2 a pound this week.

[Graeme]

Will the Transition to Renewables Be Fast or Slow?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, solar is a miniscule part of the energy budget, but history shows market shares can shift rapidly.


The first solar cells could only convert 4 percent to 11 percent of the sunlight that struck them into electricity -- and those early prototypes cost hundreds of dollars each.

Now, scientists have come up with solar cells that can convert more than 40 percent of the light that hits them into power and use the leftover power to heat water for your home. Solar modules in 1980 cost $21.80 a watt. Now, the cheapest solar modules cost less than 75 cents to make. By contrast, oil has risen from $11 a barrel to over $100 in that same period and even oil companies agree that new deposits are more expensive and more difficult to find than ever before.

Sun power is also relatively untapped. The world’s annual energy diet is equivalent to the amount of energy in three cubic miles of oil. Three cubic miles of oil would cover the island of Manhattan 450 feet deep in crude, or fill 9,000 sports arenas, says Malhotra.

The sunlight that strikes the earth every year contains as much energy as 22,000 cubic miles of oil. A tiny fraction of that light could provide more than enough energy for all the biofuel crops and solar panels we’d ever need.

Put it another way: if you could bottle the next hour of sunlight, you’d have enough energy for the entire globe for the next 14 months.

[prajeshbhat]

I am all for solar power too. I tend to lean towards the Solar Thermal side of the spectrum. The transition to renewable power will be slow. But Photovoltaic solar panels are improving lives of poor people in several countries. Not so much in the developed world. The consumers there have overwhelmingly voted for cheap fossil fuels. One could follow the model that was tried and tested by SELCO solar company in India. It is a For-Profit Social Enterprise. Here is the founder explaining why solar is affordable for the poor and expensive for the rich.
http://techtv.mit.edu/videos/1702-harish-hande-energy-services-for-the-poor

[Pops]

I too think solar is great but I'm not sure what the authors point is.

I doubt Westerners accustomed to no more involvement than paying the bill and flipping the switch will see much benefit in learning to operate their own power generation system until forced to by cost.

By the time they are forced to change because of cost, will they still have the wherewithal to pay?

[Expatriot]

The transition will never occur. So I'd guess I'd have to go with "slow." As in, "glacier slow."

[Graeme]

We’re half-assing the clean-energy transition

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he International Energy Agency recently issued its annual progress report [PDF] on clean energy. Here’s the five-cent version:
The transition to a low-carbon energy sector is affordable and represents tremendous business opportunities, but investor confidence remains low due to policy frameworks that do not provide certainty and address key barriers to technology deployment. Private sector financing will only reach the levels required if governments create and maintain supportive business environments for low-carbon energy technologies. [my emphasis]

Progress is inadequate — relative to the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 2 degrees C — on virtually every low-carbon technology except onshore wind and solar (click for a larger version of this chart):

[Revi]

We aren't even 1/4 assing it. The problem is that our companies aren't going to be able to make any kind of green technologies. The only one that still has a good slice of the market is GE and that's because they make huge wind turbines. Solar panels are gone. ESLR tanked and it looks like FSLR is going to tank as well. It's always some other country that leapfrogs over the old tech and creates a new way of doing things. The British had coal working for them until we discovered oil and took over the world. The next century will be about green technology, but it won't be us who builds it, and it won't be us who reaps the rewards either.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')It's always some other country that leapfrogs over the old tech and creates a new way of doing things. The British had coal working for them until we discovered oil and took over the world.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')here won't be an energy transition in the USA because we built out our auto-centric dispersed suburban nest 60 years ago. There is no going back. Other places in the world are more suited to an expensive-petroleum regime.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')You don't know China. The days of Mao suits and millions of people riding identical bikes to work in cities in China are long gone----you just don't see many bikes anymore in Chinese cities---there are busy streets in modern cities filled with cars, motorcycles, taxis, buses---but the bicycles are virtually gone.

[Graeme]

The key point is stated in the first paragraph:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he transition to a low-carbon energy sector is affordable and represents tremendous business opportunities, but investor confidence remains low due to policy frameworks that do not provide certainty and address key barriers to technology deployment.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '
')The US and Italy in particular remain challenged in meeting their clean energy mandates. However, in terms of emissions, an aggressive coal to gas switch can have a valuable effect in the US.

[Graeme]

Yes but both reports state that moving to gas is not enough. Investment in other low-carbon energy initiatives will have to be adopted if we want our civilization to endure.