Sorry, but I had to do one more wacky dieoff model before moving on to conservation effects. I only want to do one social engineering model, because they are simplistic and spurious, because it is impossible to implement such things globally, and they never work, and it is really unpopular when people try it, but this particular one is danced around by both Kunstler and Heinberg and therefore is worth a look, just in case it crosses anybodys mind.
In this model, the young people are so mad at the old timers for consuming all of the resources and generally screwing up the planet that they decide to round up everyone over the age of X, and turn them into Soylent Green. The question is, at what age X will this be a successful strategy in terms of extending the oil supply and allowing the population to reach a sustainable level.
In the current path case, the base dieoff model, assuming a 2004 peak, no population control, and a Verhulst decline curve, the outcome was the exhaustion of reserves in 2076, with the world population at 5.79 billion. In this first case, the great roundup occurs today, and society continues to pump oil at the rate of 4.4 barrels per surviving person (the party-on strategy), so as to not force anyone to conserve. Extra investment in pumping is needed for a few years to defy the depletion curve temporarily.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Model 1: "Soylent Green" enforced today.
age end of reserves Population
Current Path -- 2076 5.79
4.4 bbl/person 68 2048 7.16
4.4 bbl/person 60 2058 5.03
4.4 bbl/person 50 2078 3.22
4.4 bbl/person 40 2105 1.42
')
We learn from this that the break-even age is about 50, in other words, in order for the reserves to last any longer, at the 4.4 barrel per person (non conservation) rate, than they would have if we stayed on the current path, everyone over 50 would have to be rounded up. This, by the way, assumes that the elders consume as much energy per person as the youngers, and also, that the population is roughly evenly age-distributed.
Next, a sub-case. The maximum age is enforced in the year 2022. This year, which happens to be the year in which the film Soylent Green takes place, is (not coincidentally) when most of the baby boomers are elderly, and todays 20-year olds are 37, and capable of pushing them around, and also, if the model is right, when the going will really start to get tough if we keep on the current path. There are two alternatives: the party-on option, at which people continue to consume at the same rate of consumption as in 2022, and the let it be option, in which extraction is allowed to follow the Verhulst curve normally.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Model 2: "Soylent Green" enforced in 2022
Pump Rate age end of reserves population
Current Path -- 2075 5.79
3.76 bbl/person 60 2058 6.40
3.76 bbl/person 50 2061 3.22
3.76 bbl/person 40 2066 1.42
verhulst 60 2076 4.21
verhulst 50 2076 3.63
verhulst 40 2076 2.93')
What we learn from this is that any attempt to extend oil supplies by getting rid of the elderly will fail unless it is done pretty soon. If the survivors choose to party on and oil consumption continues at the 3.76 barrel rate, by 2022 the population will have already grown to the extent that no amount of reduction will allow reserves to go on past where they are if nothing had been done besides stay on the current path. If the survivors choose to let extraction follow the curve downward, and conserve along the way as geology forces them to, the result will be the same reserves-wise, but the remaining population at the time the reserves run out will be considerably lower, perhaps liveably lower.
Related to this issue, you really should look at this link:
http://www.eces.org/articles/000133.php
which has some (to us) fairly radical things to say about medical care for the elderly, and what we now know as international relief efforts in terms of unnaturally extending the energy-consuming life of some of the population. This is probably worth a separate post in the general discussion forum because this is kind of an interesting area to explore in more detail and might get a rise out of some people.