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The seven stages of Peak Oil grief.

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The seven stages of Peak Oil grief.

Unread postby Cog » Sat 16 Jan 2016, 00:35:12

There are a subset of doomers who embrace collapse as a way to settle old scores. Namely, that the rich will be brought down to their level and be made to suffer the indignation of having to struggle in life the way they do. They fail to realize that the rich have options in a collapse that they will never have and that they will be long dead before they see their form of "justice" served on their betters.
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Re: The seven stages of Peak Oil grief.

Unread postby Cog » Sat 16 Jan 2016, 01:06:39

The subset only applies to who it applies to. The social justice doomers know who they are.
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Re: The seven stages of Peak Oil grief.

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 16 Jan 2016, 02:18:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'L')OL, I find it hard to believe you all are grieving anything. Every few month for 10 years one of us declares peak and collapse imminent.


Careful. This time the boys crying wolf "have pictures with arrows, with a paragraph on the back explaining what each one was."

I've known about the concept of PO since 1972, after reading Limits to Growth. I thought it would manifest in food production. I also never envisioned we would borrow so much from the future to have it all now, both in species/ habitat loss and mountains of unrepayable debt.

I look at PO as an ecological event, a symptom of Overshoot. Ecological awareness does not make one a doomer or pessimist, it makes one a realist. I marvel we have lasted this long, but the unwillingness of man to accept that there are limits, has been heralded as innovative progress, but it's just hubris, plain and simple.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: The seven stages of Peak Oil grief.

Unread postby Cog » Sat 16 Jan 2016, 03:18:29

Doomers don't foresee a lot of things. Which is why the larger world, outside this board, rightly ridicules and ignores them.
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Re: The seven stages of Peak Oil grief.

Unread postby Pops » Sat 16 Jan 2016, 09:25:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'C')areful. This time the boys crying wolf "have pictures

I told my son about the boy and his take was if you lie the wolf comes and eats you.

I thought that was close enough, lol
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: The seven stages of Peak Oil grief.

Unread postby GHung » Sat 16 Jan 2016, 11:16:08

This wolf will eat those who minimise the size of the wolf's teeth, and how many he has. Behind those peak oil canines lay a slew of bone-crushing molars that will keep chewing away at what's left of their way of life.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: The seven stages of Peak Oil grief.

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 16 Jan 2016, 11:32:58

"Behind those peak oil canines lay a slew of bone-crushing molars that will keep chewing away at what's left of their way of life."

I'd say anyone who popped their head in here to read flowery stuff like this would be laughing all their way to the gas station right now.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: The seven stages of Peak Oil grief.

Unread postby Cog » Sat 16 Jan 2016, 12:52:12

Deflation is nothing to fear if you are out of debt and can keep your job. In fact, it is an opportunity.
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Re: The seven stages of Peak Oil grief.

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 16 Jan 2016, 17:21:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A') small collapse in prices (perhaps a consequence of global recession) is not something to gloat about.


It's not gloating. It's an appeal for people to take ownership of their bad predictions.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: The seven stages of Peak Oil grief.

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 16 Jan 2016, 18:08:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A') small collapse in prices (perhaps a consequence of global recession) is not something to gloat about.


It's not gloating. It's an appeal for people to take ownership of their bad predictions.

Refresh my memory. Bad prediction?


Nah, nobody ever makes bad predictions here...

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Re: The seven stages of Peak Oil grief.

Unread postby dolph9 » Sat 16 Jan 2016, 19:30:34

I agree there are many, what can we say, losers or unsuccessful people who populate the doomer space. Of course we can expect that, that's basic psychology. OF COURSE people who are doing well are not really going to be as doomerish. It's not particularly insightful to point this out.

Still, we don't have to apologize for being correct. That's what I'd like to emphasize. Did Darwin crawl back to the church and say, sorry, sorry, I'm wrong, God created all species fixed and there's no such thing as evolution. Did Hubbert crawl to the oil producers and say, sorry, sorry, I'm wrong, oil is infinite and American oil production will never peak and all my data and graphs are wrong. Did the people who saw the housing bubble say, sorry, sorry, I'm wrong, house prices rise forever.

We are correct, we are right! Timing doesn't matter, this whole thing is coming down folks. And yes, you can take pleasure in being right. You can take pleasure in being an objective, intelligent person who stares facts in the face and doesn't shy away from them. You can take pleasure in rejecting happy talk, rejecting false optimism, and being utterly realistic about what lies ahead.

We need more confidence in the doomer space, not less.
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Re: The seven stages of Peak Oil grief.

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 16 Jan 2016, 21:03:29

The second you issue a prediction, you're saying that timing matters.

What drives the discussion here is to take news stories in the immediate present-tense and spin them into short-term predictions, usually apocalyptic ones. That's what people do here more than anything else, and the batting average of those predictions is piss poor.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: The seven stages of Peak Oil grief.

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 16 Jan 2016, 21:25:19

The process by which I became a peak oil doomer choosing to work in what I determine to be one of 3 most crucial oil driven sectors- extraction, agriculture & JIT freight- is too laborious to bore people with the details of, but Cog has it in a nutshell- "deflation is an opportunity if you can keep your job..". I am qualified & experienced to make good money here in the social services sector, but I doubt their resilience. JIT is my income backbone, based on without it we all die- therefore the last industry to go down the toilet. Home renovations is my crafty gamble with my free time, betting that high incomes will last longer than viable stock markets- forcing investors to spend on real estate & renovations being the cheapest entry point to the RE market.

But I am definitely still a doomer. A pragmatic one with a young family. Asap we will be living on a yacht. Ready to meet up with Newfie & Zeyang & others wherever the fair winds take us- when JIT collapses & billions die, or just when we feel like it.
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Re: The seven stages of Peak Oil grief.

Unread postby dolph9 » Sun 17 Jan 2016, 16:06:34

Personally speaking, I flirted with the "fast collapse" scenario for maybe a year before I realized it was wrong. I've been doing battle with the fast collapsers ever since.

What matters to me is the vision of the long decline, a phrase I borrow from Colin Campbell. We all know what the road ahead looks like, and it's this that gives me the confidence of doom. Not whether asset bubbles rise and pop, whether people are doing well or not, or whatever nonsense originates from the mouths of politicians and bankers.

The vision of the long decline. That's what I keep with me, and yes, it does motivate me to actually make changes here and now.
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Re: The seven stages of Peak Oil grief.

Unread postby careinke » Mon 18 Jan 2016, 06:46:35

Doom is going to happen one family at a time.
Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
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Re: The seven stages of Peak Oil grief.

Unread postby sparky » Tue 19 Jan 2016, 00:42:26

.
As I stand proud , with eggs all over my face, a warm feeling come over me !
sure I know , it's probably alcohol induced incontinence but I believe , I do !
there is no such a thing as the every flowing cornucopia
call me deluded , call me naive ......but depletion is a bitch !
if one draw on cheap credit , sooner or later there is some muscle at the door
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