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The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby VMarcHart » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 09:09:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', 'T')he momentum may be dying out with a slowing demand growth
Perhaps it's a combination of out of town summer vacation trips and a slower demand, but there's a noticeable lighter traffic here in Chicago. For the few miles I drive a month, the fun of driving is actually coming back. Not that it will make me drive more, but it will make me save on gas and time when I do drive.
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 09:13:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', 'H')ow long is the lag between a rise in oil and at rise at the pump? Is it 1-2 months? Or longer?
By eye-balling the graph Drifter posted on page 2, there was no lag until about September of last year. Since then, it seems the lag (and the gap) has only been increasing. One would have to assume that such gap is cutting into the profits of the oil companies. If true, I wonder why they'd let that happen.
That's not lag so to speak, just the difference between costs due to crude prices that have increased significantly and taxation/production/transportation/etc... That tend to stay put more or less, in fact dropping over the last couple years. For instance looking at the April 06/07 data we can see that the other costs of gasoline beside oil, while bouncing around a bit, are ~$1.25-1.42/gallon worth of gasoline's price and have declined ~$.30-.50 this year compared to the same time over the last two years. Along the same lines, even if oil prices double, which they have, those won't, and in this case have actually declined ~$.50 cents since last year and ~$.30 since the same time two years ago. The point being that we can't just look at a ratio and expect gasoline prices to behave according to that, especially in light of refinery problems driving up prices in 2007. Other costs have historically remained about the same, the difference is that w/ oil stable at ~$65/bbl, it was ~$1.50 worth of gasoline prices at the time, w/ other costs making up ~$1.30 of it's price. Those other costs have dropped to ~$.95, and while oil itself has increased by a factor of more than two, the other costs haven't, and have in fact decreased, likely because so much was spent in refineries last year due to all the problems. In other words, even though oil prices have increased from ~$65 to ~$140, or ~2.15 times, to $3.23 per gallon of gas, other costs have decreased from ~$1.30 to ~$.95, w/ the result being prices that'll peak around $4.15 according to the EIA.
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 09:32:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', 'I')t depends on how long the lag is which is why I asked the question. If it's 1 month, then we're at $127. If it's 2 months, then we're at $114. If it's 3 months, then we're at $105. It takes a four month lag for us to be at $90. I highly doubt that we have a four month lag. I'm pretty sure it's only a couple of weeks to maybe 2 months. It seems to me like we're between $114 and $127 so about $120 we can estimate. NOT $90 a barrel.
I think it's ~20 days, plus refining time, plus however long it takes for the feedstock/refined products bought at whatever prices to reach the refineries/pipelines. The problem being that even in America we produce a third of our crude and buy from different locations so the transportation times would need to be averaged. Oil from SA would likely take a lot more time to get here compared to oil from Mexico, Canada, or Venezuela. I'm guessing it's at least 25 days worth of lag, but probably not more than 60 days. Maybe ~40-45 days on average, but I don't have enough info to say anything definitive? That being said, I don't know if refineries change the price of their products in line w/ oil (it would certainly help to defray refining costs), and clearly if they did, the lag would only be a few weeks. Also, the investments in refineries thanks to last years trouble has reduced those costs significantly compared to the usual, which is probably why the EIA is projecting slightly higher average prices (~$4.30) over 2009 assuming oil prices stay at ~$130/bbl.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', 'I')t seems like Monte and Drifter are simply choosing the data points that they want to get the results that they want. You will never be able to achieve good extrapolations or models like that.
All I can say is that we seem to have quite a few sharp shooters around here. ;)
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 10:20:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', 'I')t seems like Monte and Drifter are simply choosing the data points that they want to get the results that they want. You will never be able to achieve good extrapolations or models like that.


Utter bullshit! Using ad hominems to support your position is weak.

There are no results I want. And I never cherry-pick data to back my position.

Correlations to crude price are all over the place and everyone knows it.

If $90 crude is $4 gasoline waiting for $135 oil then I thnk you can extrapolate that gasoline is going to go up more even if crude stabilizes.

You think CBS is cherry-picking data for fear mongering?
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 12:31:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')f $90 crude is $4 gasoline waiting for $135 oil then I thnk you can extrapolate that gasoline is going to go up more even if crude stabilizes.
If it is, maybe. That being said, given the difference in oil/gasoline lag time for pricing via Drifter's graph, I don't see how it could be unless the market is behaving in a much different way compared to it's behavior in the past for some reason. For us to be using $90/bbl oil w/ $4/gallon gas as is your assumption, we would have to have a ~7-8 month delay between oil prices and gas prices. I can believe a month+ given the supply chain, but how can gasoline prices be almost a whole year behind oil prices?
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby VMarcHart » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 12:36:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '.')..how can gasoline prices be almost a whole year behind oil prices?
The chairmen of Shell, Chevron and BP are at a sabbatical at Brokeback Mountain. ;)
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby 3aidlillahi » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 12:47:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')orrelations to crude price are all over the place and everyone knows it.


Yes and only my numbers, and probably yesplease's as well, actually fit with the long term trend of oil vs. gas. Mine work when oil was $20 and gas was $1.35. When oil was $50, $70, $100. Yours ONLY work when oil is at this price range. If you were to use your numbers of $22:$1 ratio, then at the low end of oil, gas prices are ridiculously high.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou think CBS is cherry-picking data for fear mongering?


So you're going to trust CBS? LOL

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f $90 crude is $4 gasoline waiting for $135 oil then I thnk you can extrapolate that gasoline is going to go up more even if crude stabilizes.


Yes that's correct. IF $90 crude is $4 gasoline... However, it ISN'T. We're currently at about $120. Otherwise, if you'd check graphs and figures for the past 6 months, we'd have a lag of at least four months between a rise in crude and the corresponding rise in gasoline. However, this lag time is FAR too great for it to be accurate or even realistic. If you can prove that it is four months, then I'll agree that we're at $90/oil right now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')BS news, McCain, and others have also used the same gasoline/oil price ratios.


CBS? McCain? Wow. What beacons of truth those guys are. If they say something in conjunction with one another, then it must be true. Remember them all saying "WMD'S in Iraq" and everyone went along with it? Ahhh. Good ol' times. Believe what you want. I'll continue to regard the facts, not articles without any base.
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 19 Jun 2008, 00:35:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', 'Y')es and only my numbers, and probably yesplease's as well, actually fit with the long term trend of oil vs. gas. Mine work when oil was $20 and gas was $1.35. When oil was $50, $70, $100. Yours ONLY work when oil is at this price range. If you were to use your numbers of $22:$1 ratio, then at the low end of oil, gas prices are ridiculously high.


Read my intial post. The effect of crude on gas prices are increasing. Up from 46 % to 73%.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o you're going to trust CBS? LOL


Trust? I asked you if they were cherry-picking data to fearmonger.

So,your position is that gasoline prices are not going to continue to rise even if oil stabilizes around $135/barrel?

Because I say they are.
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby 3aidlillahi » Thu 19 Jun 2008, 05:05:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o,your position is that gasoline prices are not going to continue to rise even if oil stabilizes around $135/barrel?


Where'd I say that? What gave you the impression I don't believe gasoline will rise? Is it my post after post saying that they will rise?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Yes that's correct. IF $90 crude is $4 gasoline... However, it ISN'T. We're currently at about $120.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')If oil tops out here though (at current prices), then I'd expect gas to top at ≈$4.50.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t $140 we should be around (140/40 + 1 = $4.50).


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f it's 1 month, then we're at $127. If it's 2 months, then we're at $114. If it's 3 months, then we're at $105. It takes a four month lag for us to be at $90. I highly doubt that we have a four month lag. I'm pretty sure it's only a couple of weeks to maybe 2 months. It seems to me like we're between $114 and $127 so about $120 we can estimate. NOT $90 a barrel.

I've constantly said that 1) we're at about $120 oil, not $90 nor $140. 2) That when $135-$140 filters through, we'll end up around $4.50. So yes, I'd say that I've called for an increase at the pump even at $135-140/barrel.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ead my intial post. The effect of crude on gas prices are increasing. Up from 46 % to 73%.


Read my posts. If you do a VERY simple analysis of crude and gas, do a basic plot of crude versus gasoline over several years, then you end up with a very linear and highly correlated plot in which a $40 increase at the price of oil results in about a dollar price increase in oil. You don't have to worry about the effect rising from 46% to 73%. You can easily plug the numbers in and you get out a very accurate picture of what gasoline prices are like.

Get a graphing calculator and you can do one yourself. Put 30 minutes into it and you could get data points much better than mine in fact.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')rust? I asked you if they were cherry-picking data to fearmonger.

Watch that video again. They say "economists say you can expect...". Really? Which economists? Why not share that information? Why not have him/they say it?

So when they say something out of their own mouths with NOTHING to back it up and no reference for it, I have to put TRUST into them in order to believe them. They've lost my trust over the years.

If you want to believe them with nothing to back up their claim nor any actual proof from energy analysts or even economists to show that it takes oil FOUR months to get from the field to the pump, then that's fine with me. Maybe you don't like proof and you'd rather rely on what appears to be speculation.

I'm not going to say yes or no to that question on the basis of that last part. I don't know why they continue to mislead and outright lie to the American public. Is it for fear-mongering? Are they complete idiots? Or is it just a good way of getting people to watch TV? Could be all three or more. But what I'm pretty sure of is that their information is wrong. If they had any credibility, they'd bring their sources forth as would you. Can anyone name a credible analyst that believes it takes four months for crude to filter through?
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 19 Jun 2008, 09:18:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', 'I')'ve constantly said that 1) we're at about $120 oil, not $90 nor $140. 2) That when $135-$140 filters through, we'll end up around $4.50. So yes, I'd say that I've called for an increase at the pump even at $135-140/barrel.
*smacks head*

We've been going about this the wrong way. Guess what tracks the price of oil futures pretty damn well... RBOB gasoline futures. :oops: Since they're at ~$3.45, and the other costs of gasoline, not counting refining of course, are at most ~20% of costs circa April 2008, we should see a peak of ~$4.15/gallon. :)
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby 3aidlillahi » Thu 19 Jun 2008, 13:20:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince they're at ~$3.45, and the other costs of gasoline, not counting refining of course, are at most ~20% of costs circa April 2008, we should see a peak of ~$4.15/gallon. Smile


Historically (last decade), the other costs count for about $1.00/gallon with the last year being around 80 cents per gallon, IIRC. That would mean a range from $4.25 to $4.45 or so. My $4.50 number is pretty crude and that's based on $140 oil, which hasn't happened yet.

In your $4.15 number, you even admit that you aren't counting refining. So refiners are just going to do the job for free now? I doubt it. Add on a few more dimes to your cost.

Remember, we're still at $120/barrel and we're already at $4.075. You really think that we're going to go up 10% in oil costs and only up 7.5 cents/gallon? If you say that at most, crude oil is 75-80% of the cost of gas right now, then you should be expecting [(4.075*.75)/120 * 135 ] / 0.75 = 4.584. If it's 80%, then [(4.075 * 0.80)/120 * 135] / 0.80 = 4.584. Again, I'm still getting numbers between $4.30 and $4.60, even with going your way.

There's simply no way that we can expect gas prices to logically, without manipulation of large degrees, to go up only 7.5 cents or 1.8% when oil is going up 15 dollars or 10%.
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 19 Jun 2008, 15:51:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', 'I')n your $4.15 number, you even admit that you aren't counting refining. So refiners are just going to do the job for free now? I doubt it. Add on a few more dimes to your cost.
RBOB gasoline is already refined AFAIK, so the cost of refining is included in the price, correct? Not to say it couldn't be refined again into something else, but it generally doesn't work that way. ;)

Anyway, distribution and taxes have been at ~20% of gasoline prices this year, so if the futures price of refined RBOB gasoline is ~$3.45, adding on 20% for distribution/taxes results in $4.15/gallon gas. Looks like the EIA's figure, and I bet they just looked at the price of gas on the futures market and tacked on what they thought would be the price of distribution/taxes. IMO of course...
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby 3aidlillahi » Thu 19 Jun 2008, 20:09:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')BOB gasoline is already refined AFAIK, so the cost of refining is included in the price, correct? Not to say it couldn't be refined again into something else, but it generally doesn't work that way.


I'll plead ignorance in that case.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nyway, distribution and taxes have been at ~20% of gasoline prices this year, so if the futures price of refined RBOB gasoline is ~$3.45, adding on 20% for distribution/taxes results in $4.15/gallon gas.


Your math is a bit off on this. If distribution and taxes are 20% of gasoline then just looking at the RBOB of $3.45, then that $3.45 is 80% of the final price. That means to get the final price, you divide $3.45 by 80% (0.80) to get $4.312, not $4.15.

If you work backwards, you see this is true. If RBOB is 80% as you say of the final price, then at a final price of $4.15, the RBOB price would be 4.15 * 0.80 = $3.32.

If you're going from a final price of $4.312, then the RBOB price would be $4.312 * 0.80 = $3.45.

So if we're assuming that the refined cost of gas is 80% of the final price of gas, then when this $3.45 price trickles into the market, we can safely assume (based off of our first assumption) that the final average price will be $4.312, not $4.15. After all, it would make no sense for the price of gasoline to go up 7.5 cents when oil rises $15 (from $120 to $135). It's just as illogical as MQ's and Drifter's allegation that we're headed for $6 gasoline at $135 (okay, maybe not as illogical, but you know what I mean).
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 19 Jun 2008, 21:12:40

As of JUne 10, the EIA:

"The U.S. average regular gasoline price, currently over $4 per gallon, is projected to peak at $4.15 per gallon in August."

They project oil to average $122/barrel through 2008.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')rices. WTI crude oil prices, which averaged $72 per barrel in 2007 (Crude Oil Prices), are projected to average $122 per barrel in 2008, up about $12 per barrel from the projection in last month’s Outlook; and $126 per barrel in 2009, up more than $20 per barrel from the previous Outlook.


http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

"Up about" & "up more" are the EIA's favorite words.

So, I seriously doubt that $4.15 is going to be the top.
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby JoeW » Thu 19 Jun 2008, 23:27:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ')I don't see how a $6/gallon (Aside from regional price differences) average is possible w/ oil at ~$130-140/bbl.


If gas is $4 based upon $90.00 oil, then why isn't oil at $135.00 $6 gasoline?

There is a lag time between crude rise and gasoline rise.

Sure, we see some rise instantly, but not all of it.


I strongly disagree. There is a formula for the price of gasoline on the supply side. In my area, it is crude price divide by 42 gallons per barrel, plus 75 cents tax/profit/etc. The reason the ratio keeps changing, Monte, is because the crude cost is increasing while the tax and profit are staying the same.

That is only the supply side. No supplier will sell below that price because it would be a loss. Last time I checked, refiners were running on narrow margins, meaning that my formula works for now. The only time it wouldn't work would be if you had a good crude oil inventory, but low gasoline inventory, meaning that refiners aren't cranking out product fast enough. Then the demand side for gasoline dominates the price.

I'm not an economist. I'm an engineer. I know numbers and I have been following the prices closely on the nymex since at least 2002. Demand-side for gasoline took over post-Katrina/Rita due to refinery problems. Other than that, the supply-side floor has dominated the gasoline price.

If we get $11 gasoline with $250 oil (and no refinery issue), I will shit and eat it. Most of us can agree that $250 oil is coming, so soon enough, we will find out who is wrong and who is wronger! :)
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby yesplease » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 07:53:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', 'Y')our math is a bit off on this. If distribution and taxes are 20% of gasoline then just looking at the RBOB of $3.45, then that $3.45 is 80% of the final price. That means to get the final price, you divide $3.45 by 80% (0.80) to get $4.312, not $4.15.
Good catch! Although for relatively accurate picture we should probably look at the average of distribution/taxes and just add 'em. In that case it seems that on average it's ~$.65 over the last seven years, and the EIA's assumption of a $4.15/gallon peak average price still seems to be reasonable.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', 'S')o if we're assuming that the refined cost of gas is 80% of the final price of gas, then when this $3.45 price trickles into the market, we can safely assume (based off of our first assumption) that the final average price will be $4.312, not $4.15. After all, it would make no sense for the price of gasoline to go up 7.5 cents when oil rises $15 (from $120 to $135). It's just as illogical as MQ's and Drifter's allegation that we're headed for $6 gasoline at $135 (okay, maybe not as illogical, but you know what I mean).
Definitely a valid point. That's why I added the rough average of those two stable costs over the past seven years.
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby yesplease » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 07:55:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '"')Up about" & "up more" are the EIA's favorite words.

So, I seriously doubt that $4.15 is going to be the top.
I'm curious, what do catch phrases (?) have to do w/ the accuracy of their short term forecasts?
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 10:12:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I')'m curious, what do catch phrases (?) have to do w/ the accuracy of their short term forecasts?


Because they are always revised upwards.
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Re: The Rising Cost of Crude Oil's Effect on Gasoline Prices

Unread postby yesplease » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 10:33:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I')'m curious, what do catch phrases (?) have to do w/ the accuracy of their short term forecasts?


Because they are always revised upwards.
No they aren't. :)
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