by The_Toecutter » Mon 21 May 2007, 01:16:58
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e had. Audi produced a 3l/100km car (which is around 80mpg, if I calculated correctly), the A2, 1.2l. It was and still is leading in reliability statistics (google for "Pannenstatistik, ADAC"), it had c_w value of 0.25, it was quite affordable, 5 doors, aluminium-based chassis, won several awards, and was dropped by Audi in 2005 because people simply didn't want to buy it, compaining that it would be "ugly".
There is more to this problem than just the evil car companies.
The 'looks' weren't the half of it.
a) It was overpriced. People who buy subcompacts usually don't intend to pay £13,495. That's getting close to the price of a Prius.
b) It was a subcompact. People want midsize or even luxury cars for the price the A2 was going for.
c) It was only made for the European market, so of course it's not going to sell near as well as competitors that have their competing models for sale in Asia and Australia too.
The Audi A2 3L got about 70 mpg US. If you'd have gotten rid of all the aluminum bullshit and used a larger 120+ horsepower diesel and kept the slightly improved aerodynamics, it would have still gotten about 55-60 mpg. The use of aluminum shaved off only about 50 pounds, yet added greatly to expense.
Further, the VW Lupo was virtually the same car, without the aluminum body and without the large seating capacity, yet it vastly outsold the A2. Why? Lower price, similar performance and fuel economy. It also achieved a .29 Cd, yet had vastly different styling than the A2.
The .25 Cd of the A2 isn't much of a leapfrog in aerodynamic efficiency, given that the average for cars of the time was about .33. A .25 Cd was actually achievable early last century. The 1927 Rumpler Trophenwagen achieved a .27, the 1933 Dymaxion achieved a .25, the 1935 Tatra T77a achieved a .21, the 1951 Hotchkiss Gregiore achieved a .26, the 1953 Alfa Romeo BAT7 achieved a .19, the 1985 Ford Probe V achieved a .137, the 1995 Dodge Intrepid ESX2 achieved a .19, 2000 Ford Prodigy a .20, and the 2000 GM Precept achieved a .16. All of these were cars capable of seating at least 4 people(some of them more).
In fact, the Intrepid ESX2 looks almost stylistically identical to the Intrepid model Dodge sold in the late 1990s/early 2000s. Yet the model Dodge actually sold had a Cd of .30, compared to the .19 of the concept. You see, there are many subtle changes you can make to the shape of a car's body that can dramatically reduce drag, without noticably altering the car's styling cues. The auto industry widely refuses to sell a car with such a low drag body, however, even though they need not too dramatically alter the style. Some of the obvious, non-style altering differences between the ESX2 concept and the Intrepid Dodge was willing to sell was that the ESX2 had a bellypan and a grille that wasn't open as much. Those two changes taken together can impact a midsize car's Cd by 15-25%, with no other modifications. Another large difference is the finess ratio of the ESX2's rear versus that of the Intrepid sold. The ESX2 achieved the optimum value(6:1) while the Intrepid sold deliberately eschewed it. If you look at both cars from the side without measuring, you almost can't even tell any difference in the rear profile.
Google Image search the Ford Prodigy. It looks near identical to the Ford Fusion sold today, yet has about 50% less drag(.20 Cd versus the .33 of the Fusion). The GM Precept, with its .16 Cd, arguably looks more 'normal' than a Prius with its .26 Cd. Then there's the Intrepid ESX2 that looks very similar to the one Dodge marketed and sold here, yet again had a huge reduction in drag.
It's actually possible to get down to a .20 Cd without significantly altering a midsize car's body style, and possible to get down to a .15 or so if you significantly alter style.
The thing is, less drag induced at speed means less power required to maintain speed, which correlates with less maintenance. An industry seeking to maximize returns to investors is not going to be thrilled with the concept of selling the public cars that are vastly cheaper to run than the cars of today nor are they thrilled with the concept of offering the best product possible since that will kill any opportunity to sell transition products in between.
Cars today already have all the same stylistic cues an ultra-aerodynamic car would have, minus wheel skirts. The only difference is that cars today deliberately aren't designed for low drag, but they are designed to look like they have low drag and are designed moreso by accountants than by engineers. I've even talked to aerodynamacists who have told me that accountants in these companies will deliberately remove a $5 bellypan, increasing the Cd of a car by 10-15%, just to add that $5 to the gross profit margin per car sold. Even the early Prius models ignored something as obvious as a full bellypan, in favor of a partial one installed in the front only. Even the new Honda Civic Hybrid could use some improvements underneath which could add 2+ mpg without even changing the look or practicality of the car.
While it is fair to pin some blame on consumers for not wanting ugly cars, low drag cars need not be ugly. Instead of designing cars to bring maximized profit margins, the industry could actually make an attempt to satisfy consumers for a change without forcing consumers to compromise. It's possible, but it's not the solution that maximized revenue.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')anagers of car companies will always follow the money, preferring the easiest and safest way to make it. All big companies are inherently risk-avoiding. In my point of view, they discarded the EV that time not because of a conspiration with big oil, but simply because it meant a new, relatively risky business (uncertain acceptance in general public, potential of rather spectacular battery failures or simply design fumbles due to inexperience) which would mostly eat away profits from their own traditional business.
This risk avoidance tendacy is a huge problem, and is precisely why it is a bad idea for the governments of the world to take their campaign contributions and over-regulate smaller competing automakers out of business. Since that has been done, consumers just don't have a choice.
The 'conspiracy' between the oil industry and the auto industry pertaining to EVs is quite well documented, and is certainly a significant contributing factor as to why we can't buy them today.
Acceptance to the general public, at least where the electric cars were going to be marketed, was there. A study titled "The current and Future Market for Electric Vehicles" found that the market in California for an EV with at least 80 miles range, capability to cruise on the freeway with traffic, and comparable purchase price to a similar gasoline powered car was at least 150,000 sales per year, and 12-18% of the new car market in California with a 95% confidence interval. The technology present at the time the study was conducted was allowing 150+ miles range, faster acceleration performance than comparable gas cars, and a slightly lower production cost in mass production than comparable gas cars.