[hotsacks]

Taking responsibility for crises like PO is listed in the successful politician's handbook under DON'T so it's only natural they stalinize the situation and begin planting the seeds of doubt in their favourite MSM cornfield and fertilize it with talking head BS. I doubt manyPOers would be moved off their position by being labelled 'mentally ill'. We know who the crazy ones are.

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', ' ')If this is really Peak Oil 2005 by next year the Peak Oil message could become like Judaism in Hitler's Germany.

Of course I am looking for feedback and no I am not trying to stir up fear. I see a growing need in certain quarters to discredit Peak Oil as a dillusion even a mental illness. Time will tell who is right but I am just wondering how far most Peak Oilers are willing to go to continue speaking the truth as pressure mounts to the contrary.

[MicroHydro]

Agree with MacG. A few bloggers are so unimportant they are better ignored than anything else. The MSM scapegoats will be:

China, the evil oil guzzling yellow peril
Venezuela, evil Marxists
Moslems in general, evil 'terrorists' in particular
Evil environmentalists, impeding oil production

The mainstream soultion is more drilling and war, war war

And for leftists in alternative media, blame:
Evil oil companies
Evil speculators

The alternative leftist solution is price controls and windfall profits taxes

People who understand geology or supply and demand are too few to bother with

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', 'I') would not be surprised if I seem to be one of the most extreme doom and gloomers on the site.

[Jack]

First of all, welcome to peak oil, ElijahJones. With your background, I'm sure you'll be able to offer some interesting insights - I'll look forward to seeing them.

It may be that peak oilers will be scapegoated, but I think it will be more in the form of social ostracism than otherwise. People will dislike the message, and thus will blame the messenger, as MicroHydro suggests.

But the FBI? No, I think not. If anyone was going to be on a watch list, it would be me, if only because I tend to post images of automatic weapons - but since I keep my actions (and my postings) legal, I have nothing to fear.

[I_Like_Plants]

PO could never become "like Judaism in Hitler's Germany", remember that the Nazis were very into ecology, the term itself was invented by some of their progenitors, and Hitler was known for things like antismoking laws etc. Blood and Soil and all that. In fact, I believe much of their criticism against Judaism was that it was considered a parasite religion, devoted to sucking the lifeblood out of not only their host country but the land and resources themselves.

I think the common working person in the US is very very able to accept the idea of Peak Oil - and in the US about 90% of us are working class whether we use that term or not.

[eric_b]

Enjoyed both of your posts here Elijah.

And I also agree that most upper level positions (jobs and political)
are picked based on ideology. Which can lead to a certain group
blindness.

About being watched by the FBI - that's an interesting and sinister
thought. Personally I feel there is, already, an american 'secret
police', if you will. I don't worry about PeakOilers being blamed or
setup as scape goats; I worry more that we may become the targets
of a more subtle harassment by 'The Powers That Be' because as far
as I'm concerned they are quite aware of peakoil and are actively
trying to surpress this fact.

Assuming there's is a 'secret police' in America (and I'm certain there
is, and its power has grown considerably post 9-11) they will use
sneaky tactics to deal with people they consider a threat. In many
cases people under surveillance will not even know they are being
targetted. The harassment can take many forms; not being able to find
work, bogus rumors started and spread... there are really many, many,
sinister ways to deal with activists (Look at the history of COINTELPRO
in the US for example). That way, even if the person being targetted
has some idea what's going on, they have no recourse as it's very
hard to prove.

All the above said, I'm much more worried about PO itself (and the
many other issues we face, which you enumerated well) than being
scapegoated or watched by the FBI.

[bobcousins]

As you may know, there are 3 principles of an analogy: structural, semantic, and essence.

I think that the comparison with anti-semitism in Germany is worth considering, but fails on the structural. Anti-semitism was part and parcel of Hitlers manifesto, catalysed by the loss of the First World War amid a general background distrust. Aryan principles and such were gathered to support the principle of anti-semitism, rather than anti-semitism being the logical outcome of such theories.

PeakOilers are unlikely to be blamed as Peak Oil is yet to be identified as such by the MSM. We have high prices, but PeakOilers are not seen to be the cause of that.

The people currently being blamed are the people who it is assumed are responsible for and have control of the pricing. Namely, suppliers (OPEC and oil companies), regulators (the government) and speculators. These are genuine scapegoats, they are spectators to the real cause which is of course depletion and demand from the end user : no one ever wants to say it is their own fault.

I think PeakOilers are seen as doomsayers like that of Y2K, or asteroid strikes. It is regarded as scare mongering but there is no plausible link between the doomsayers and the event.

I expect that on the downslope people will still be blaming oil companies and governments for quite a while before people aceept that excess consumption is the problem. Denial is what we will make a tough problem a lot worse. Especially for the US, who have yet to come to terms with climate change. I think that is a cultural difference, the New World is still looking to its next frontier - space. We here are done with frontiers, we appreciate more that the next challenge is right here at home.

[The_Toecutter]

Excess consumption, however, is a problem that was also exacerbated by our governments and the oil companies. In America, the oil and auto industries tore down all the mass transit to force reliance on the automobile, and even as technology evolved to make alternatives to oil viable, the oil industry and federal government both played roles in preventing their adoption. They were not full solutions in themselves, but every solution taken together, wind energy, electric cars, a return of mass transit for most travel, industrial hemp, among others, could have greatly reduced consumption without making a large impact on living standards. Consumption kept the economy as we know it today going, this consumption is also netting the oil industry record profits and the federal governments even greater revenues from the taxes generated.

The media gets it wrong all the time by refusing to mention depletion. But make no mistake, the oil industry itself is partially to blame, and they stand to see increasing profits well into the future post peak because of the crisis it will generate.

In the meantime, the best thing each individual person can do is to try to make themselves as independent as possible rom oil use. If available and economic for where you live, use mass transit. If you need a car, cut out the internal combustion engine and replace with an electric motor and bateries. Look into getting wind and solar energy systems installed to power your house. Start a gargen and try to grow as much of your own food as you can, and avoid buying any food that is factory farmed if at all possible.

This problem can be worked around, but the odds of it happening on a large scale are looking more and more grim. Despite this, there is no reason to throw in the towel and count on peak oil being such a catyclism. Indeed, there may still be time to get people to live sustainably, but our current power elite does not like that idea for reasons pertaining to profit. Without growth in this economic system, there's less profit.

[bobaloo]

I don't think we have too much to worry about regarding speaking out about peak oil, unless they are able to lump up together as "wacko survivalist gun nut" types and decide we're potential domestic terrorists.

On the other hand, nothing would surprise me. I personally know two people who have recently been visited by the feds for the crime of putting their anti-administration opinions out in public. They got a knock on the door from the FBI with the attitude of "so why do you hate America". These are both normal, middle class guys who just happen to dislike current policy and got their views printed in the paper. In fact, one of them was interviewed by the paper and they didn't print his comments but he still got the visit, which is the < really > interesting part.

Summer of '04 my 17 year old daughter daughter was the subject of an FBI surveillance operation due to her participation in the radical group Food Not Bombs, a group which goes to protests and provides free food.

Interesting days, huh?

[RonMN]

I don't think the "shoot the messenger" idea is far fetched!

I'm not so concerned about my posted comments on this board but as far as talking about it in public...i don't anymore.

I've already been blamed twice for high gas prices (half jokingly & half not). I've planted the seeds of information to friends & family & now that they see it comming i'll only discuss it if somebody else brings it up...and even then i wont discuss it in a room full of people.

Be carefull, because at this point, as things turn uglier & uglier, people don't care who they blame as long as they can blame SOMEBODY.