[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')
None of those things have to do with TOD shutting off the lights and closing up shop. Their failure was not in making some convoluted and incoherent economic argument, it was in not understanding that oil production isn't predicted by fitting random declines to time series data. And then claiming an inflection point which didn't exist.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'T')hose who refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it, and if that doesn't characterize nearly every article reference, and every idea you have, I don't know what does.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')FInally, you are making similar errors in this one, speculating on why TOD closed, when its staff members already explained so in one entry. And yet you won't even accept that, repeating the same mistakes over and over, e.g., more reserves -> more production, "basic" economics, etc.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', ' ')As explained to you, TOD is closing for reasons they gave in one entry:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10095

The problem is that you didn't accept that, referring instead to points about peak oil that are incorrect. I've been addressing those points.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his thread is about the REAL reason TOD is closing Ralfy, not the press release pablum you seem to have fallen for so readily.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his thread is about the REAL reason TOD is closing Ralfy, not the press release pablum you seem to have fallen for so readily.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his thread is about the REAL reason TOD is closing Ralfy, not the press release pablum you seem to have fallen for so readily.

[ROCKMAN]

dave - it still seems so strange to me that folks keep saying TOD said this or that. TOD never "said" anything...individuals on TOD made statements. I spent years of TOD...posted 100's of thousands of words. Had thousands of chats and debates there. Not once have I seen a statement, opinion, prediction or attitude there that I haven't seen here. As I said earlier I wouldn't know what site I was on if someone were to just read me the posts. As a matter of fact this whole discussions to why TOD has shut down is just about as silly as any one of the dozen of silly discussions I participated in at TOD. It's at moments like this I begin to think I must get a life. And then, like the moth, I'm drawn back to the flame. LOL.

[Beery1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')s a matter of fact this whole discussions to why TOD has shut down is just about as silly as any one of the dozen of silly discussions I participated in at TOD...

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', 'O')ne of them was a TOD editor. The other a known TOD contributor. While the room didn't giggle, it was obvious who the whipping boy was in this professional environment.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'A')re you suggesting this is the reason they closed? Due to something that happened after they announced they were closing?

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'd')ave - it still seems so strange to me that folks keep saying TOD said this or that. TOD never "said" anything...individuals on TOD made statements.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'A')re you suggesting this is the reason they closed? Due to something that happened after they announced they were closing?

[Pops]

It seems to me the thing that killed TOD was the people who owned it got tired of it. Same with Savinar, he wanted to do aromatherapy or something, I can't remember what. That is the problem with a site that hinges on just a few people.

I was not an avid follower over there so I was actually surprised to see the post about all the failed predictions. I take most predictions with a grain of salt, mine included, because there are so many moving parts even the past is not really all that knowable. The tit for tat of who guessed what is essentially endless since there are so few good fortune tellers anymore. There is definitely enough failure on all sides to make that argument boring quickly.

In fact, I don't remember ever seeing a prediction that looked like this:




I will say always thought Laharrere has always seemed fairly moderate in his views and his 05 forecast looks about right on to me. His best comment ever was that using any number with more than 2 digits to describe the oil resource was attributing way more accuracy to your theory than was justified. I think that is a warning we should all heed.

Having said that, things are progressing about as I predicted, LOL! Aside from Iraq and US tight oil the world of C+C is as flat as my prom date. As for "liquid Fuels" ethanol double counts the oil/gas used to produce it, same with tar; and NGPL includes all sorts of stuff that never makes it to any fuel pump - except in the form of credit cards that is, and I sure can't burn "processing gains" in my weed whacker.

I frankly can't understand why anyone would throw in the towel at this point, the party is just getting started; no matter what the Koch boys and their minions would have us believe.

Anyway, I started in to say that the nice thing about PO.com is the staff are volunteer and come and go as they please. Even better the owner doesn't participate in the sturm und drang of the forums much. He stays busy digging up stories for the front page, stoking the boiler on the server and raking in all the ad money (yea, right). Kind of open source, actually, since the content itself is mostly volunteered by the members as well.

[Pops]

Thanks Pete, I did that from updated EIA data after seeing one Matt @ CrudeOilPeak.info did last year sometime. I was gonna make a "chart" thread but haven't gotten a round tuit yet.

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('forbes writer', '
')The main reason why Peak Oil theorists always turn out to be wrong is that they by and large appear to be unable to grasp the huge role advancing technology plays in allowing the industry to discover new oil resources previously unknown, to access known resources that were previously thought to be unexploitable, and to extract an ever-increasing percentage of oil long known to be in place via secondary and tertiary recovery techniques. They appear to believe – either through lack of imagination or due to political convenience – that current assessments of available resources in known formations will always remain static and never increase, never understanding or acknowledging that those assessments will rise along with advances in technology.