[natts]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', 'A') quick Excel table depicting that rate of decline, if my initial assumptions are correct.

Year Barrel/day (millions)
2008 84.5
2009 76.8105
2010 69.8207445
2011 63.46705675
2012 57.69155459
2013 52.44162312
2014 47.66943542
2015 43.33151679
2016 39.38834876
2017 35.80400903
2018 32.54584421
2019 29.58417238
2020 26.8920127

The half-life of a 9.1% decay rate is about 7.5 years. That is a STEEP slope.

[cualcrees]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', 'I') really hope there are some more nuanced details in that report. If the decline is as bad as the 2-sentence summary suggests, that is just incredible.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('natts', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', 'A') quick Excel table depicting that rate of decline, if my initial assumptions are correct.

Year Barrel/day (millions)
2008 84.5
2009 76.8105
2010 69.8207445
2011 63.46705675
2012 57.69155459
2013 52.44162312
2014 47.66943542
2015 43.33151679
2016 39.38834876
2017 35.80400903
2018 32.54584421
2019 29.58417238
2020 26.8920127

The half-life of a 9.1% decay rate is about 7.5 years. That is a STEEP slope.

[jupiters_release]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Delphis', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', 'A') quick Excel table depicting that rate of decline, if my initial assumptions are correct.

Year Barrel/day (millions)
2008 84.5
2009 76.8105
2010 69.8207445
2011 63.46705675
2012 57.69155459
2013 52.44162312
2014 47.66943542
2015 43.33151679
2016 39.38834876
2017 35.80400903
2018 32.54584421
2019 29.58417238
2020 26.8920127

The half-life of a 9.1% decay rate is about 7.5 years. That is a STEEP slope.

[copious.abundance]

The IEA says . . .
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]IEA Statement on Unauthorised Press Coverage of World Energy Outlook 2008

The Financial Times carried a cover page article this morning and a second article on page 4 allegedly reporting on the findings of the forthcoming WEO 2008. This article was drafted without any consultation with the IEA. It appears to be based on an early version of a draft from several months ago that was subsequently revised and updated. The numbers in the article can be misleading and should not be quoted or considered to be official IEA results. We are dismayed that such a comprehensive and important IEA report was made public without our input and verification.

The IEA will present the final and accurate results of the World Energy Outlook 2008 officially as planned at a press conference in London on 12 November. At that time, we will be happy to discuss the results and their implications for the global energy and climate in full detail.

[Twilight]

Yes, but is the rate constant over time? In one year it might be 9%, but you cannot just assume it is constant over a decade without a lot of evidence to back up the claim.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('natts', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', 'A') quick Excel table depicting that rate of decline, if my initial assumptions are correct.

Year Barrel/day (millions)
2008 84.5
2009 76.8105
2010 69.8207445
2011 63.46705675
2012 57.69155459
2013 52.44162312
2014 47.66943542
2015 43.33151679
2016 39.38834876
2017 35.80400903
2018 32.54584421
2019 29.58417238
2020 26.8920127

The half-life of a 9.1% decay rate is about 7.5 years. That is a STEEP slope.

[RapaNui]

Such chagrin! Such surprise! Oh me oh me oh me oh my! Was this not predictable long ago? Did not many tell you So? 9.1, a large percent? A mental rent? The bounty spent? It's been known and said and clear foretold, perhaps not among the POsheeple, but among some bold:

http://peakoil.com/post762874.html#762874

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('me', 'A')t 8% decline rate starting about now, we are at about 40% of today's gasoline at the time they want to implement this.

[Jotapay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'Y')es, but is the rate constant over time? In one year it might be 9%, but you cannot just assume it is constant over a decade without a lot of evidence to back up the claim.

Bump.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '[')url=http://www.iea.org/journalists/arch_pop.asp?MED_ARCH_ID=477]The IEA says . . .[/url]
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]IEA Statement on Unauthorised Press Coverage of World Energy Outlook 2008

The Financial Times carried a cover page article this morning and a second article on page 4 allegedly reporting on the findings of the forthcoming WEO 2008. This article was drafted without any consultation with the IEA. It appears to be based on an early version of a draft from several months ago that was subsequently revised and updated. The numbers in the article can be misleading and should not be quoted or considered to be official IEA results. We are dismayed that such a comprehensive and important IEA report was made public without our input and verification.

The IEA will present the final and accurate results of the World Energy Outlook 2008 officially as planned at a press conference in London on 12 November. At that time, we will be happy to discuss the results and their implications for the global energy and climate in full detail.

[RapaNui]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'B')ump.

[erl]

Well, we got into this mess by spending too much and saving too little.

So, we're supposed to now get out of this mess by spending more?

[lawnchair]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cbxer55', '
')Summers and Little Timmy Geithner, couple of freaking geniuses.

[Graeme]

Global oil demand may peak, forcing oil out as a fuel source

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n a report titled “The Beginning of the End for Oil?” Peter Hughes, a director of Arthur D. Little’s global energy and utilities practice, cites three converging drivers likely to bring about changes in energy policy around the globe – perhaps resulting in an earlier-than-anticipated decline in demand for oil.

These are climate change, politically undesirable price volatility, and questions of security of supply. These factors are driving new public policies that “may well reduce the role that oil plays in the global energy mix sooner than many expect.

“In the last year, oil prices have reached record highs – and also been their lowest in four years,” Hughes says.

“The penny has dropped. To varying degrees, governments across the globe are acknowledging publicly, many for the first time, that decreasing reliance on imported oil – and quickly – is becoming a policy imperative.”

[kiwichick]

CERA and OPEC are predicting possible supply crunch

" due to lack of investment "

when these guys are talking supply shortages

BE WORRIED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Schmuto]

Problem with reports like this is that they never properly vet what will replace oil.

[Graeme]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kiwichick', 'C')ERA and OPEC are predicting possible supply crunch

" due to lack of investment "

when these guys are talking supply shortages

BE WORRIED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')the stone age did not end because the world ran out of stones.

[Graeme]

That situation will only arise if there is a sudden disruption to oil supply (war, terrorism,etc). I think that America and the world are beginning to move gradually away from oil for mainly environmental reasons.

Renewable Energy Generation Climbs in 2008, Fossil Fuels Dip

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')on-hydro renewable energy increased 17.6 percent in 2008 compared to the year before, according to new figures released this week by the Energy Information Administration.

In comparison, electricity generation from coal and natural gas declined by 1.1 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. Overall electricity generation declined 1 percent in 2008, most likely due to the economy.

Non-hydro renewables, which includes wind, solar, geothermal and biomass, accounted for about 3 percent of total generation, up from 2.5 percent in 2007.

[dohboi]

Imagine there’s no oil left
This might make you cry
Nowhere to drive or fly to
Empty streets and sky
Imagine all the vehicles
Scrapped forever more

Imagine there's no oil multis
All bankrupt at last
Nothing to pump or search for
And no global warming too
Imagine all the vehicles
Scrapped forever more

You may say I'm a doomer
But I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us
And the world will power down

Imagine localization
I wonder if you can
No need for multinationals exploiting
The community of man

Imagine all the vehicles
recycled to make windmills

You may say I'm a doomer
But I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us
And the world will power down



My apologies to the estate of John Lennon

[This is from galacticsurfer over at TOD. I thought you folks might enjoy it on this fool's day.]