[duke3522]

As energy prices continue to increase, especially NG, might we at some point see a large southern migration to escape the cold winters of the northern US. I know that GW, or something, has been slowly changing our USDA frost zone from zone 4 to zone 6 over the last 75 years. But it still gets damn cold here. Tonight, for example, the temp is going to bottom out at 11 degrees Fahrenheit. And we still get plenty of snow (although we did have a thunderstorm last night).

My scenario would be that NG prices double, or even triple, again ($50 range maybe). And that folks in the Northern US won’t be able to afford to heat their homes, and won‘t have jobs to go to because their employers cannot afford the NG to stay in business.

Best thing I can see for most McMansion and city dwellers to do is pack up the car and head south where at least they won’t freeze. Hell, a good percentage of the folks who live around here now spend part or all the winter in warmer climes anyway. And the rest, for the most part, are so soft that if they had to spend the night in a room under 50 degrees they would think they were dying.

This would mean that states like Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida could be overwhelmed by Northerners fleeing high heating costs. And since we supposedly still have freedom of travel here in the US, there would be little these states could do to stop the flow.

Then what would these states do with millions of formerly middle class white folk, most of whom have never done any physical labor in their lives, who think that they are entitled to a continuation of their former easy life style?

As for me? I am where I am going to be. I have a small, well insulated room here in the old farm house set up for just such problems. This room use to house the tanks for the rain water collection system that was installed into the house when it was originally built back in 1882. ( I am still pissed at dad for dismantling this system, but hey what was I suppose to do, I was 5 when he did it)

I have also been building up my stock of blankets and have been making three wick candles out of large coffee cans so we can stay warm in our little hideaway. But we also have one of the best emergency heat sources of them all on hand, a nice large dog.

With plenty of blankets, a couple of my coffee can candles, and our big old dog, we should have no problem getting by even if the temps drop below zero.

Duke of Indiana

[AmericanEmpire]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd the rest, for the most part, are so soft that if they had to spend the night in a room under 50 degrees they would think they were dying.

[pup55]

I'm not convinced.

The dallasites and houstonians inhabiting this forum will tell you that if the ac shuts down on a massive enough scale, you will wish you could move up to wisconsin and put on a sweater for a few months out of the year rather than sweat your hiney off.

Plus, the act of moving around on foot in these places in july and august is really difficult because both of these places are nothing but one mass of sun baked concrete all summer.

Plus all of these places have water issues to deal with. Not as bad as Vegas, but bad enough.

Before air conditioning, Florida was a vast, mosquito infested wasteland marginally fit to raise cattle. The character Laura Ingalls Wilder lived down there for awhile, and this experience was enough to drive this hardy family back up to Minnesota.

Before air conditioning, most of what we call the "deep south" was a backwater, because no one could do any work for about 5 months out of the year because it was too hot to do anything but sit around.

There are some areas in between, example: up in the hills of Arkansas or southern Missouri maybe, where the climate might be moderate enough to be fit to live.

[duke3522]

Hi Pup,

All very good points. But back in the 1880’s folk were a lot tougher than they are now. And I am not saying that a move south is the smart move. As a matter of fact, as you point out, it is the stupid move, but what I am saying is that when folks who have never been cold in their lives have a choice between being cold or heading south those who can will head south.

Back in my Boy Scout, going to be an Army Ranger days (before I broke my back), I spent many a cold night out in our barn snuggled up with a dog. And I was on a couple of Boy Scout winter encampments where our big vat of hot chocolate, that we kept on the fire, would have a skim of ice on top.

Now what percentage of the folks that live in Indianapolis have ever done anything like that? Not many.

I think when these folk start to get cold they are going to look for the easiest solution. And, if we can still travel freely, I think most of them will head south.

Oh Hell, who am I kidding? I hope they all head south to get these morons as far away from me as possible.

Duke of Indiana

[Trab]

There will probably be migrations in several different directions as people try to flee heat/cold. Places like my hometwon will probably drop in size to a certain degree, though if recent winters are any indication, we're in for our are to be reclassified from zone3/4 to zone4/5 or higher.

40 below keeps the riff-raff out!

[PenultimateManStanding]

There's no place left to go. Back when I was in high school there were 3 billion people. now it's 6 1/2. A large number of them are young and going to make a few more billion here very soon (doing it now in fact) to go with the 6 1/2 we've already got. Not likely to be any more doublings I guess. So the next Great Migration will be across the River Styx. Don't forget to bring your quarter for Charon, the ferryman.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'f')olks who have never been cold in their lives have a choice between being cold or heading south those who can will head south.

[TommyJefferson]

Air conditioning did not become common in the US until after WWII. Consider US geographic population densities before 1950.

There is a good reason why northern cities had larger populations during the preceding 200 years.

Like pup55 said, the heat in the South can be intolerable, even lethal.

Getting warm during cold weather is FAR easier than getting cool during hot weather.

[duke3522]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'f')olks who have never been cold in their lives have a choice between being cold or heading south those who can will head south.

[PrairieMule]

As someone from Dallas, I too considered the possibility of a power outage during summer heat in Texas. I discovered while backpacking at Lake Texhoma that I can sleep very comfotably with a hammock in 80 degree temps. All the body's heat escapes compared to being collected in the mattress. I am working on how to string 4 hammocks inside if we have a brown out.

[frankthetank]

Any time the temp in the summer goes above 80F (dewpoints above 65F) i have a hard time getting motivated. Maybe you have to grow up in these conditions (i grew up in a cold house!). I tend to think humidity (dewpoint) is a better gauge of how "comfortable" it feels. I still remember taking an hour walk when the dewpoint was 77F, i thought i was going to pass out. Right now i could probably run an hour and still not overheat!

Maybe more northerners will become "snowbirds" and leave for DJF or JFM...or even a month or 2? I wouldn't mind heading to Mexico or Central America (NOT FLORIDA OR ARIZONA!) for a few months

[mgibbons19]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('duke3522', '
')For the past few years on the Spring equalinox I make a point of asking Thor to protect us from the spring storms. And I must admit that ever since the really bad storms have moved to our north or south.
Duke of Indiana

[eric_b]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'A')ny time the temp in the summer goes above 80F (dewpoints above 65F) i have a hard time getting motivated. Maybe you have to grow up in these conditions (i grew up in a cold house!). I tend to think humidity (dewpoint) is a better gauge of how "comfortable" it feels. I still remember taking an hour walk when the dewpoint was 77F, i thought i was going to pass out. Right now i could probably run an hour and still not overheat!

Maybe more northerners will become "snowbirds" and leave for DJF or JFM...or even a month or 2? I wouldn't mind heading to Mexico or Central America (NOT FLORIDA OR ARIZONA!) for a few months

[duke3522]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('duke3522', '
')For the past few years on the Spring equalinox I make a point of asking Thor to protect us from the spring storms. And I must admit that ever since the really bad storms have moved to our north or south.
Duke of Indiana

[zoidberg]

Speaking as a Canadian, who has just went through a particularly nasty cold snap I will say that even when it gets to -30 and below(Celsius, roughly similar fahrenheit) that I'd rather take some uncomfortable cold than suffer through endless months of muggy oppressive heat. You'd be surprised how wearing an extra layer of clothes, turning down the heat at night and properly insulating your home can extend your heating bill budget. I personally detest hot weather, and if other people decide to head south and trade their NG heating bill for an electrical AC bill then well be my guest.

PS. On the farm I grew up on we didnt have any air conditioning and heated our house with dead trees from our lands. So this whole idea of moving because of heating bills seems somewhat unreal to me. But I do understand theres not enough dead trees for everyone.

PPS. The province of Saskatchewan is suffering from a depopulation of its rural areas. So any paranoid PO'ers here who feel the need to head for the hills, theres some good deals on land out there. (Bring your family)

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', 'S')peaking as a Canadian, who has just went through a particularly nasty cold snap I will say that even when it gets to -30 and below(Celsius, roughly similar fahrenheit) that I'd rather take some uncomfortable cold than suffer through endless months of muggy oppressive heat. You'd be surprised how wearing an extra layer of clothes, turning down the heat at night and properly insulating your home can extend your heating bill budget. I personally detest hot weather, and if other people decide to head south and trade their NG heating bill for an electrical AC bill then well be my guest.

PS. On the farm I grew up on we didnt have any air conditioning and heated our house with dead trees from our lands. So this whole idea of moving because of heating bills seems somewhat unreal to me. But I do understand theres not enough dead trees for everyone.

PPS. The province of Saskatchewan is suffering from a depopulation of its rural areas. So any paranoid PO'ers here who feel the need to head for the hills, theres some good deals on land out there. (Bring your family)

[greenworm]

Hi all,

This is happening already in my neck of the woods. I know of a Rhode Islander who moved to Tenessee and someone from Connecticut moving to South Carolina. The reason from both: "too expensive to heat our home." This will get worse in my opinion unless heating oil does a huge pull back. The hot suburban markets of the northeast might finally pop as Bernanke flushes out the poor with continued rate hikes. Good news to renters who have been outpriced out of the market since 2001, bad news to those who heat with oil, which is a mightly large percentage and house flippers who bought recently.

[TheTurtle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '
')There are some areas in between, example: up in the hills of Arkansas or southern Missouri maybe, where the climate might be moderate enough to be fit to live.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ennessee is very nice

[TommyJefferson]

On the other hand, they say that Minnesota winters keep out the riff-raff.

If government housing and energy subsidies in ubran areas stop, all those "economically marginal" people would be forced to move to warmer climes. Yuk.

Los Angeles already has a huge homeless population because you don't really need a house to live there all year.

I don't want to be near where all these people set up camp.