[roccman]

Link

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow, as is sometimes said, "do you want the bad news or the REALLY bad news?"

I have repeatedly noted that the "retrace rallies" on the plunges since last February have been taking one half as long in each instance. The technical from this evening goes over this in some detail.

The top, 1576 on the SPX, was put in back in October. Since then we have seen two plunges, and two retrace movements (we are in the second one right now.)

The clock has almost run out on the current retrace, if the pattern that has worked since February of 2007 holds.

The REALLY bad news is that the third move (out of five) is usually the largest.

When you add to this the fact that the bad news keeps piling up and the people who bought into financials thinking that the majority, or even all, of the writedowns had been taken are now discovering they were had, the potential for a true "waterfall" type of event rises substantially.

[roccman]

NY Times link

[roccman]

Now on Bloomberg...

Ackman Devoured 140,000 Pages to Prove `MBIA Was Never AAA'


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')an. 31 (Bloomberg) -- It was the $109,000 photocopying bill that hedge fund manager William Ackman says made him realize how much he'd read and underlined before betting against bond insurer MBIA Inc. in 2002.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he REALLY bad news is that the third move (out of five) is usually the largest.

[mattduke]

Yet another bail out fund under discussion (remember the "super SIV"?). This one is for the bond insurers.

wsj

[mattduke]

I attempted to open the 124MB Excel spreadsheet (Ackman's model) using "OpenOffice" under Linux, but "OpenOffice" crashed.

[REDEYE]

It seems we are all witnesses to a system-wide meltdown. A few years back Warren Buffett warned that all these new financial instruments (aka derivatives, SIVs etc.) were a ticking time bomb. Allan Greenspan said oh, no, they're proof of the free market's creative powers.

Thanks, Big Al. We're all in a lake of fire now.

[pup55]

I also tried, with regular EXCEL and it gave me a "not enough memory" error, which for me is pretty rare.

I liked the part where you had to claim to be a "sophisticated analyst" or something to that effect to access the document.

The 20-page letter could very well have been condensed into one page which should say something to this effect:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ear congressmen, senators, and insurance regulators:

This whole reinsurance issue, as well as the whole subprime issue boils down to one thing, and one thing only: no one is admitting to the size of the problem.

One of the two of the following things is going on:

a. Either people are hiding the size of the problem, in which case this amounts to defrauding the shareholders, the regulators, and general public, and therefore should result in some people going to jail, or

b. no one really knows the size of the problem, in which case, some people need to get fired for lack of fiduciary control, and then, the ratings institutions need to be prosecuted for giving erroneous ratings.

We have a big computer model available to us to determine the extent of the fraud/losses as the case may be when the reality of the situation is finally revealed. Based on some preliminary estimates, it is not looking good.

We urge you to give the responsible parties in these firms 48 hours to fully and publicly disclose the status of their loans and reinsurance portfolios, or else you will consider (a) to be the case, and start putting people under arrest, starting with the CEO and CFO of each of the subject organizations.

Until then, no one, and I do mean no one, knows for sure what any of these securities, loans, or anything else is really worth, and the current market turmoil will go on and in fact get worse.

Thanks for your swift action in this case.

Bill Ackman

p.s. If you, as elected officials, continue to drag your feet on this thing, we will assume that you are complicit in the whole thing, and subject to investigation and jailing as well, so I suggest if you do not want to end up in Leavenworth as somebody's prison wife, you initiate the disclosure process without delay.

[NWMossBack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')
IF YOU ARE IN THE MARKET LONG - YOU ARE GOING TO GET KILLED.

LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE HEAD TO THE HILLS TIME...

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')
IF YOU ARE IN THE MARKET LONG - YOU ARE GOING TO GET KILLED.

LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE HEAD TO THE HILLS TIME...

[joeltrout]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'm')ake a prediction about:

1) the price of oil
2) the price of gold
3) DOW close
4) Wheat close

All for 2008.

[MrBill]

That whole Crocs thing cracks me up! ; - ) I am going to start selling rabbit poop as a dietary supplment to lower cholesteral and cleanse the colon. I do not even have to make any exagerated, hard to prove claims. I just have to bribe Angelina, Brad and Tom to be seen munching down on them! ; - )

[JJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'T')hat whole Crocs thing cracks me up! ; - ) I am going to start selling rabbit poop as a dietary supplment to lower cholesteral and cleanse the colon. I do not even have to make any exagerated, hard to prove claims. I just have to bribe Angelina, Brad and Tom to be seen munching down on them! ; - )

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'T')hat whole Crocs thing cracks me up! ; - ) I am going to start selling rabbit poop as a dietary supplment to lower cholesteral and cleanse the colon. I do not even have to make any exagerated, hard to prove claims. I just have to bribe Angelina, Brad and Tom to be seen munching down on them! ; - )

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'T')hat whole Crocs thing cracks me up! ; - ) I am going to start selling rabbit poop as a dietary supplment to lower cholesteral and cleanse the colon. I do not even have to make any exagerated, hard to prove claims. I just have to bribe Angelina, Brad and Tom to be seen munching down on them! ; - )

[MrBill]

Well, there is still Petro China left to invest in? ; - ))

[pup55]

Yahoo

Here it is. I guess they only had 24 hours

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')EW YORK, Feb. 1, 2008 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC announces that a class action lawsuit has been filed on behalf of purchasers of the common stock of MBIA, Inc. (NYSE:MBI) ("MBIA"). The class consists of purchasers of the MBIA common stock for the period January 30, 2007 through and including January 9, 2008.

The complaint alleges that during the class period mentioned above, MBIA and certain prominent individual defendants Chief Executive Officer Gary Dunton and Chief Financial Officer C. Edward Chaplin ("The Defendants") violated the federal securities laws by issuing false and misleading financial statements, SEC filings, press releases, and statements during investor conference calls

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'T')hat whole Crocs thing cracks me up! ; - ) I am going to start selling rabbit poop as a dietary supplment to lower cholesteral and cleanse the colon. I do not even have to make any exagerated, hard to prove claims. I just have to bribe Angelina, Brad and Tom to be seen munching down on them! ; - )

[I_Like_Plants]

Crocs aside, you need to get your money out of the bank NOW, FDIC protection is GONE.

[Lanthanide]

Ahhh, so that's what Crocs are. I was in the US in Sep 06 and we saw them in a few shops, then come summer they spread everywhere. Just in the last few months the warehouse (NZ version of Walmart) was selling them 2 for $10, trying to dump them all.

I haven't really seen many people actually wearing them.