by Pops » Tue 02 Sep 2014, 10:47:51
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon1', '(')as I keep repeating) automation results in higher overall employment, not lower. It is impossible to lay off everyone due to automation.
Show us some evidence why this will continue past PO and you won't have to keep repeating yourself.
Along about '75 something definitely happened to decouple wages from productivity. Was it Disco?

(I couldn't find a chart that shows the increase in benefits on top of wages that comes from medical insurance in the US. If you include benefits, total compensation shows some rise.)
I'd like to blame it on Disco but alas I think several things explain it better. The first was the increase in oil prices brought about by OPEC. That put a real strain on industry to start economizing - the biggest post-embargo drop in oil use in the US was in industry.
Automation of course is the second factor - especially containerization early on. Container shipping singlehandedly made labor arbitrage possible by eliminating manual freight handling and cutting the cost of shipping dramatically. Containerization eliminated dock workers, digital networks then eliminated local managers by making real time oversight of anywhere possible from anywhere. You can see the impact in the rate of "productivity" increase around '95.
Automation based on CPUs has replaced legions of skilled and semi-skilled workers (like the pre-press trades I mentioned in the opening) with burger flippers and hair stylists.

h/t cultureshift.com
Kind of explains the wages stagnation in the first chart right?
If you step back and look at profit a little longer term you see the recent spike in the owners pot equal to the early 20th century when the industrial revolution was putting horses and ditch diggers out of business and increasing "productivity."

Which is why they call this the post-industrial revolution.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I') don't believe it's possible for bots and AI to design their own replacements.
Just a decade ago I would never have thought it possible that a consumer product - a widely adopted product, would have the capability to tell you instantly what constellation you were pointing it without any user input, regardless of location anywhere in the world. And that capability would be simply a throwaway, mundane gimmick not used or even known to the majority of users of what is mainly a selfie-loading device.
The first industrial revolution used technology and fossil fuels to replace horses with tractors and created jobs in the cities that the industrial capitalists profited from. The workers got the upper hand for a few decades mid century after the communists skeered the hell out of the owners and in no small measure because fossil fuels created such an unprecedented surplus it was easy to share. It is absolutely no surprise then that with the increase in fossil fuel prices in the '70s that business began an all out effort to regain the upper hand. The equation had changed from endless growth to zero sum overnight with the threat of the end of cheap energy. It has been an all out effort since, including "corporate personhood", "privatization" and the rise of the supra-national corporation.
The first industrial revolution put muscle out of work, the post-industrial revolution will put brains out of work. The conundrum is they are both based on cheap, high EROEI (30/60/100:1) fossil energy.
So the question is, can you have a post-industrial revolution when the foundation of the industrial revolution itself is past it's peak?