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THE Iraqi Civil War Thread (merged)

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Iraq: open civil war?

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Thu 03 Aug 2006, 14:55:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')'m sure our great planners are surprised that installing "democracy" in a "country" made of three ancient tribes when one has 60% of the vote would cause the other two to believe they have no power at the ballot box.


I agree. I can't help thinking that the Western model of adversarial Democracy was bound to backfire.

Yes this sounds very Babylon 5 (i.e mimbari grey council for us sci-fi geeks, might be Greek model as well but I'm not to crash hot on my ancient history) but wouldn't a system of 9 chiefs, 3 from each sect dictating Iraq's future be a much better working model. Then you would have a balance of democratic decision making. A case where all 3 decide what would be in Iraq's best interests. And probably more importantly show Iraqi politics to have more solid cohesion in an otherwise unstable region.

Considering the state of Iraq today, it can be seen that an adversarial democratic model has been pushed to its ultimate definition.

It seems we have been short sighted in our attempts to instigate democracy, and it seems that we have not considered that what works for us might not work for anyone else. In doing so, have forgotten our own histories of bloodshed when it comes to deciding how our own respective governments work.

Our democracies exist because time has forged them. It is clearly obvious that removing Saddam Hussein's regime, though a positive, created a huge void which was filled with cultural misunderstanding. Forgetting that these people were without choice for over 25 years.
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Re: Iraq: open civil war?

Unread postby mekrob » Thu 03 Aug 2006, 15:13:27

Why wouldn't it have just been best to split the nation up by ethnic and religious boundaries? There could exist an informal, loose relationship or maybe even alliance, but this way they could each have democracy.

I've never been a big fan of major nations becoming democracies. It is too easy to manipulate because one could never really know the candidates, just their talking points and that's all that would ever been discussed, not real policies and the sort. With smaller democracies, candidates must go out and meet with individual towns and villages. People have a much better sense of the persons. They aren't just some guy from Baghdad or New York, but your neighbor.

The main problem though is oil. The Sunnis would have almost none, maybe East Baghdad. But the real prize would be in Kirkuk and in the South, especially because of waterways for transport.
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Re: Iraq: open civil war?

Unread postby Free » Thu 03 Aug 2006, 15:27:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'W')hy wouldn't it have just been best to split the nation up by ethnic and religious boundaries? There could exist an informal, loose relationship or maybe even alliance, but this way they could each have democracy.


Because that's exactly what the US/UK never wanted. The Shiite part would quickly become a de facto province of greater Iran, a Kurdish state would be unacceptable to Turkey (especially with oil wealth), and the Sunni part would soon be hopelessly marginalized to the point of constant threat of war with Iran/Kurdistan, with the involvement of the other Sunni states (Saudis...) - total nightmare...
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Re: Iraq: open civil war?

Unread postby Eli » Thu 03 Aug 2006, 15:43:50

There is no way that US military can stop a civil war at this point.

And the generals are probably getting pretty upset right now. They were short on men before and now as the fighting gets worse that is going to put them in an even worse spot.

The generals are saying get us more men or get us the hell out. We are in there too deep to just cut and run but we also don't have the balls to call for a draft.
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Re: Iraq: open civil war?

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 03 Aug 2006, 16:13:11

In the last few months I've talked to two young Army soldiers who were home on leave from Iraq. Both said that the word was that should the Sunnis and Shiites come to full-on civil war, American forces were going to stand down and back off.

The thinking was that trying to get in between the two sides would be a true no-win situation for us, because we would only further alienate both sides, and we really wouldn't be able to stop the fighting anyway.

Let's hope the two soldiers were correct. Let's hope our "leadership" sees the wisdom of that way of thinking, and doesn't order our guys to, once again, attempt the impossible.
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Re: Iraq: open civil war?

Unread postby lateStarter » Thu 03 Aug 2006, 16:27:46

Thanks for the map Mekrob. It would really be educational if someone could possibly layer on top of that the location of the oil fields and pipelines. Anyone?
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Re: Iraq: open civil war?

Unread postby mekrob » Thu 03 Aug 2006, 17:11:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'T')hanks for the map Mekrob. It would really be educational if someone could possibly layer on top of that the location of the oil fields and pipelines. Anyone?

Great idea! However, I can't impose an image onto another, I don't know how to. But...here they are next to each other:

JPG
JPG

There is one field they leave out and it's roughly 10-15 billion barrels: East Baghdad which goes northwest to southeast across the eastern part of the city. Essentially, it goes from the tip of Sunni territory to Shi'a. 98% of it exists in the mixture area so in any mass civil war, it would be the most contested battles of the war.

Edit: Mods, would you mind scaling those pictures down? Thanks.
Last edited by mekrob on Thu 03 Aug 2006, 17:27:05, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Iraq: open civil war?

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 03 Aug 2006, 17:24:56

NYT story on this:

U.S. Generals See Growing Threat of Civil War in Iraq

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')enator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat who graduated from West Point and served in the Army for 12 years, said that under Mr. Rumsfeld’s tenure the Army had been stretched beyond its capacity, a situation he called “a stunning indictment of your leadership.”

“It think it’s an inaccurate statement,” Mr. Rumsfeld shot back, going on to say that the situation was more complicated than Mr. Reed had suggested.


Image
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Re: Iraq: open civil war?

Unread postby Strelnikov » Thu 03 Aug 2006, 19:55:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', ' ')Both said that the word was that should the Sunnis and Shiites come to full-on civil war, American forces were going to stand down and back off.


While I agree there is little US forces could do to quell a Civil War, the disaster for the US will not end by our standing down.

Two countries for all those thinking "let em fight, what do we care" (not directed at you, just a general comment):

Afghanistan - Civil War following Soviet withdrawal resulting in ascendence of the Taliban.

Lebanon - Civil War resulting in ascendence of Hezbollah.

Further, I cannot imagine Iran sitting on the sidelines. So what happens? Iran supplies the Shia, the US supplies the Sunni's/Kurd's?

Catch 22, Clusterfuck, Fiasco, take your pick.

And Congress is still not providing oversight and/or investigating those who have 'managed' this disaster.

History is not going to treat a certain politcal party kindly.
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Re: Iraq: open civil war?

Unread postby Venerye » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 01:01:41

Here you go. You're welcome. 8)

Image

Higher quality, larger image here.
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Re: Iraq: open civil war?

Unread postby alpha480v » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 06:43:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', '
')
The General made the point that we have far too few troops to handle any kind of insurgency. The US military was screwed over by the Neocon war planners who because of their own hubris thought that by kicking out Sadam everything would be sunshine and smiling faces.

We the US either have to institute the draft to get more people into Iraq or get the hell and the Generals who know what they are talking about are the ones who are saying that.


I agree completely. And I might add, that Unless something drastic happens,I can't see the Neocons selling a military draft to the American public.
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Re: Iraq: open civil war?

Unread postby worrier » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 01:30:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he General made the point that we have far too few troops to handle any kind of insurgency. The US military was screwed over by the Neocon war planners who because of their own hubris thought that by kicking out Sadam everything would be sunshine and smiling faces.


I have read the opinion that the Bush administration knew that war on Iraq would result in civil war, and that this would give the US the excuse to remain in Iraq for the long term. I agree with this opinion. I'm not convinced it was all a big whoopsie.
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Re: Iraq: open civil war?

Unread postby grabby » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 01:59:00

An old rule is never to get in between two fighting dogs, they will BOTH turn on you.

SADDAM CONTROLLED ALL THREE OF THESE PEOPLE WITHOUT USING MISSILES. Because he was Arab and used a little fear.

there was far less damage with Saddam than what happend in the last 4 years.

Jihad is a belief that a Satanic worldly Country will come and try and take over Arab land
and the Jihad war must be fought to the death to prevent it.
This is Jihad. They have been waiting for this war for 2000 years.
You think they arent going to fight to the death every man woman and child?

Its Jihad and there is an invading country,
the only way to stop it is for the invading country to LEAVE.

You see in their prophecy, the satanic country will not leave,
if we LEAVE then we can't be that Satanic country!
Simple solution.
And they all will instantly stop hating us cause we arent that satanic country anymore cause we left!

simple.

So what do the stubborn people do?
Give in?
NEVER!
THEY COME OVER AND TRY AND TAKE OVER THE COUNTRY.
and keep trying,

well this makes us APPEAR like they must be the satanic country
This is not good.
and I guess every arab will eventually join the fight.
Its Jihad.


Jihad means fight till the last man.

You ahve two choices

kill every Arab

or go home

you cannot stay there.

Eventually the nukes will come then it is the end.

We should suck it up and go home.
The other option will eventually wipe all life out on this earth.
Dumb move.


they WILL fight the war to the death, as long as there is an invading force..

Looks like some leader never took world history, he probably skipped that quarter on a road trip.

But I'll let you in on a little hush-hush secret.
Some people are a doughnut short of a dozen
Aome people you cannot reason with,
and some are just not so bright.

Shhh don't tell anyone.

We have to get out of there or the whole Arab nations will eventually fight us. It is inevitable.
It is their religion that some prophecy that a country WILL COME to take over the arab lands. Then Jihad starts.

So we do it? How bright is that?
Do some people ever think first?
Its almost as if someone WANTED to start Jihad.

Fullfilling their prophecy of being a satan country is not a really wise move.

Time to come home this is not going to solve anything.

Hey boss, say sorry, lets go home.
dinners ready.
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Roots of Iraq Civil War May Be in ‘Salvador Option’

Unread postby Miki » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 17:32:02

Makes you wonder if the increasing incidence of death squads and dead people dropped in the streets of Irak has anything to do with this. Perhaps Rumsfeld decided to go ahead with it and just keep this little piece of info from the American public and the world. After all, it wouldn't be their first (or last) little lie, no?

[web]http://thinkprogress.org/2006/03/02/roots-of-iraq-civil-war-may-be-in-salvador-option/[/web]
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Re: Roots of Iraq Civil War May Be in ‘Salvador Option’

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 17:36:56

"In a desperate bid to rescue a failed policy in Iraq, the Bush administration may have given the green light to a strategy that ends any hope of national reconciliation and finally tears Iraq apart along sectarian and ethnic lines."

Then again, they "may" not have. Rather tendentious wouldn't you say?
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Re: Roots of Iraq Civil War May Be in ‘Salvador Option’

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 17:51:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'a')bsolutely I could believe this. I was around during the Reagan Death Squad Administration. The death squads in central america specialized in labor leaders, activists, peaceniks. nuns. you know. dangerous liberal-types.


Exactly. This administration is re-cycling the old torture squad. Negroponte left Honduras under a cloud of suspicion a couple of decades ago. Now he's the head of homeland security. He left Iraq about a year ago--Was American ambassador.
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Re: Roots of Iraq Civil War May Be in ‘Salvador Option’

Unread postby Miki » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 17:56:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '"')In a desperate bid to rescue a failed policy in Iraq, the Bush administration may have given the green light to a strategy that ends any hope of national reconciliation and finally tears Iraq apart along sectarian and ethnic lines."

Then again, they "may" not have. Rather tendentious wouldn't you say?


Maybe. But then again:

A-They did it before in El Salvador in similar circumstances.
B-They were considering the option at the Pentagon
C-Sectarian violence in Irak has increased since then (Jan 2005).
D-The American has corroborated that these death squads are affiliated with the Iraki police. If the new Iraki government which emerged under American support and supervision is using death squads and torture, shouldn't the US be doing something? After all, this is why Saddam was taken out of power, no?
E-And most importantly, the US administration has lied and lied and lied. There is no doubt about that.
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Re: Roots of Iraq Civil War May Be in ‘Salvador Option’

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 18:07:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Miki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '"')In a desperate bid to rescue a failed policy in Iraq, the Bush administration may have given the green light to a strategy that ends any hope of national reconciliation and finally tears Iraq apart along sectarian and ethnic lines."

Then again, they "may" not have. Rather tendentious wouldn't you say?


Maybe. But then again:

A-They did it before in El Salvador in similar circumstances.
B-They were considering the option at the Pentagon
C-Sectarian violence in Irak has increased since then (Jan 2005).
D-The American has corroborated that these death squads are affiliated with the Iraki police. If the new Iraki government which emerged under American support and supervision is using death squads and torture, shouldn't the US be doing something? After all, this is why Saddam was taken out of power, no?
E-And most importantly, the US administration has lied and lied and lied. There is no doubt about that.
Yeah, this is good circumstancial evidence. But remember, governments always lie, they have to. There is no proof here, is all I'm saying. Sometimes I think Uncle Sam is like the other miki, Mickey Mouse in Fantasia, you know where he has the broomsticks under a spell and he loses control of them. I don't know, I'm just a guy in San Diego trying to make sense of it all without letting ideologues of either stripe sucker me. Scepticism is my Motto!
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Re: Roots of Iraq Civil War May Be in ‘Salvador Option’

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 18:14:23

Though many U.S.-backed regimes in Latin America practiced the dark arts of “disappearances” and “death squads,” the history of Guatemala’s security operations is perhaps the best documented because the Clinton administration declassified scores of the secret U.S. documents in the late ‘90s to assist a Guatemalan truth commission. The Guatemala experience also may be the most instructive today in illuminating a possible course of the counterinsurgency in Iraq.

The original Guatemalan death squads took shape in the mid-’60s under anti-terrorist training provided by a U.S. public safety adviser named John Longon, the declassified documents show. In January 1966, Longon reported to his superiors about both overt and covert components of his anti-terrorist strategies.

On the covert side, Longon pressed for “a safe house [to] be immediately set up” for coordination of security intelligence. “A room was immediately prepared in the [Presidential] Palace for this purpose and … Guatemalans were immediately designated to put this operation into effect,” according to Longon’s report. Longon’s operation within the presidential compound became the starting point for the infamous “Archivos” intelligence unit that evolved into a clearinghouse for Guatemala’s most notorious political assassinations.

http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/669/
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