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THE 'How much oil is remaining?' Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The CIA Claims we've less than One Trillion Barrels Left

Unread postby Ferretlover » Mon 10 Sep 2007, 10:09:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Richard', 'J')ust to let you know that the CIA have whipped out another 300 billion barrels! That means we've discovered more in the 2002-2005 period than we've consumed! Yeah baby!


HHmmm.. Could they be counting/including the oil in Iraq?...
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Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 24 Sep 2007, 16:28:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'A')lmost in balance means out of balance shortly.

What California needs badly is a few more nuclear reactors and a few large wind installations. I can think of a place to get about 500 megawatts of wind, but the "views first" crowd might not like it.

The same crowd will not like to view reactors either...
Anyway it would be nice if few more reactors are enough to mitigate PO in California.
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Unread postby Tanada » Mon 24 Sep 2007, 19:19:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'A')lmost in balance means out of balance shortly.

What California needs badly is a few more nuclear reactors and a few large wind installations. I can think of a place to get about 500 megawatts of wind, but the "views first" crowd might not like it.

The same crowd will not like to view reactors either...
Anyway it would be nice if few more reactors are enough to mitigate PO in California.


While I don't beleive a few reactors would mitigate PO in California I did see a study some 20 years ago abuot building four dedicated nuclear powered desalination plants that would eliminate the threat of drought and aleviate the stress on the Colorado watershed. The more dedicated desalination plants the better for the Colorado and other natural water resources.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The CIA Claims we've less than One Trillion Barrels Left

Unread postby MindRioter » Sat 06 Oct 2007, 09:54:57

every now and then a retired agent seems to be speaking the truth yet even then they are suspect.
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Re: The CIA Claims we've less than One Trillion Barrels Left

Unread postby muon » Mon 15 Oct 2007, 07:14:20

One trillion sounds a lot, but when I work it out it comes to about 36 years at current rates of consumption. If *everyone* knew this, wouldn't it shock them somewhat?

That isn't even taking into account that decline rates go down a slope and not a cliff.

If the CIA numbers come from reserves posted by OPEC countries, I have read they may be very inflated, and taking that into consideration would mean possibly 40% less reserves than the CIA figure given.
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Re: The CIA Claims we've less than One Trillion Barrels Left

Unread postby Barbara » Mon 15 Oct 2007, 13:10:17

Not quite. CIA uses "proven". There are also "possible" and "probable" reserves, which can magically become "proven" any moment. :P
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Re: The CIA Claims we've less than One Trillion Barrels Left

Unread postby Madpaddy » Mon 15 Oct 2007, 13:17:29

smallpoxgirl wrote,
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nybody know how much is in a firkin of natural gas?


I couldn't give a firk.

Sharks with firkin laser beams on their firkin heads.
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Unread postby Raminagrobis » Sun 21 Oct 2007, 08:36:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'T')he numbers for consumption and production are very hard to compute for the entire world. Lot's of states don't want to be entirely forthcoming with the data. I think the 500,000 barrels isn't outside that margin of error.



Hum, isn't this difference the so-called "refinery gain"? The volumetric difference between refinery input and output?
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8.59 trillion barrels left - party on dudes!!!

Unread postby roccman » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 13:23:57

Globe and Mail

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')rom Wednesday's Globe and Mail

November 21, 2007 at 6:04 AM EST

OTTAWA — ***In a massive new multivolume report on energy strategy in the United States, a high-powered federal task force puts "peak oil" into perspective. On the one hand, it says, the country has already consumed, in 150 years, 446 billion barrels of its own fossil-fuel endowment. *On the other hand, it says, the country has 8.59 trillion barrels left - or more "oil equivalent" than the rest of the world combined. More than 95 per cent of America's oil reserves, in other words, are still in the ground*.***

Canada enters this particular calculation in passing. "North American oil shale and [oil] sands alone far exceed all the remaining proven and undiscovered oil resources of the entire world," the task force reports. "They represent 3.5 trillion barrels of oil resources. ****America' s commercial-quality oil shale resources alone exceed two trillion barrels. This shale can be processed to generate ultraclean, high-quality diesel and jet fuels, along with high-value chemicals - with existing technologies under normal economic conditions." ****

****Further, U.S. coal reserves exceed 260 billion tons - "250 years of supply at the existing production rate [for electricity] of 1.1 billion tons a year." The task force says clean coal can be the largest and quickest single new source of oil in the U.S. - and that the conversion can be economic (producing a 15-per-cent return on investment) with world oil prices between $40 to $50 (U.S.) a barrel.****


Someone should tell these folk to check out Hall's latest EROI report before posting such nonsense...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')harlie Hall's latest research shows the EROI of existing oil and gas is about 25 to one, but that NEW oil is approaching 1 to 1, which means that the discovery of new oil may be irrelevant after 2015 to 2020.

When asked about how the future might unfold, he mentioned that he thought that people will not be willing to make the capital investments needed to build solar, wind, and so on when oil was costing them $10 per gallon or more.


Here...


sustainablescale
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Re: 8.59 trillion barrels left - party on dudes!!!

Unread postby highlander » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 13:36:53

All we need are a few dozen fast breeder reactors, some large desalinazation plants and a place to dump the waste. We are golden.
Should have all that up and running about the middle of the next presidents term, right? After all, all the major candidates have a viable energy policy, right?
This is where everybody puts profound words written by another...or not so profound words written by themselves
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Re: 8.59 trillion barrels left - party on dudes!!!

Unread postby roccman » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 13:59:43

Where is Planetagenetwork anyway and his breeder reactor cheerleading?
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: 8.59 trillion barrels left - party on dudes!!!

Unread postby clueless » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 14:47:19

8.59 trillion barrels left ?


Happy Thanksgiving Rocco....
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Re: 8.59 trillion barrels left - party on dudes!!!

Unread postby Valdemar » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 15:29:44

To quote Ripley, did IQs drop sharply whilst I was away? Why are these retards still pounding the oil shale/tar sands drum as if it's brand new and totally untested? We know it's bollocks all in the grand scheme of things, bar a money pit. Surely investors aren't this gullible or ignorant.
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Re: 8.59 trillion barrels left - party on dudes!!!

Unread postby NeoPeasant » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 16:10:08

They neglect to mention that of the 8.59 trillion, roughly 8 trillion will be consumed in the production process, leaving 0.59 trillion to enter the non energy production economy. :cry:
The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning.
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Re: 8.59 trillion barrels left - party on dudes!!!

Unread postby Duende » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 16:17:56

NeoPeasant wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey neglect to mention that of the 8.59 trillion, roughly 8 trillion will be consumed in the production process, leaving 0.59 trillion to enter the non energy production economy.

Holy moley. Is it really that inefficient??
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Re: 8.59 trillion barrels left - party on dudes!!!

Unread postby erb » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 16:57:18

"the country has 8.59 trillion barrels left - or more "oil equivalent" than the rest of the world combined. More than 95 per cent of America's oil reserves, in other words, are still in the ground"


what?

then why am i getting myself all worried? we'll be fine and so will our kids. we're just using up everyone elses so north america can go back to being an oil exporter at 150$ a drum and make our windfall, the dollar goes back up and we keep buying

wooohoooo!!
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Re: 8.59 trillion barrels left - party on dudes!!!

Unread postby lexicon » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 19:00:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')Someone should tell these folk to check out Hall's latest EROI report before posting such nonsense...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')harlie Hall's latest research shows the EROI of existing oil and gas is about 25 to one, but that NEW oil is approaching 1 to 1, which means that the discovery of new oil may be irrelevant after 2015 to 2020.

When asked about how the future might unfold, he mentioned that he thought that people will not be willing to make the capital investments needed to build solar, wind, and so on when oil was costing them $10 per gallon or more.


Here...


sustainablescale
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Re: 8.59 trillion barrels left - party on dudes!!!

Unread postby lexicon » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 19:04:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'S')omeone should tell these folk to check out Hall's latest EROI report before posting such nonsense...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')harlie Hall's latest research shows the EROI of existing oil and gas is about 25 to one, but that NEW oil is approaching 1 to 1, which means that the discovery of new oil may be irrelevant after 2015 to 2020.

When asked about how the future might unfold, he mentioned that he thought that people will not be willing to make the capital investments needed to build solar, wind, and so on when oil was costing them $10 per gallon or more.


Here...


sustainablescale


Do you have a more direct link to that quote? I can't find it and I'd like to read more.
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Re: 8.59 trillion barrels left - party on dudes!!!

Unread postby roccman » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 21:27:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lexicon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'S')omeone should tell these folk to check out Hall's latest EROI report before posting such nonsense...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')harlie Hall's latest research shows the EROI of existing oil and gas is about 25 to one, but that NEW oil is approaching 1 to 1, which means that the discovery of new oil may be irrelevant after 2015 to 2020.

When asked about how the future might unfold, he mentioned that he thought that people will not be willing to make the capital investments needed to build solar, wind, and so on when oil was costing them $10 per gallon or more.


Here...


sustainablescale


Do you have a more direct link to that quote? I can't find it and I'd like to read more.


link
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