[smiley]

You should also not make the mistake to overstate the importance of Ghawar. It is a big field, but it does not define the world production.

Ghawar produces about 5 million barrels a day, right? So even if it declines at 10% annually that only is a loss of 500.000 barrels a day. Considering that the world growth is somewhere in the order of 1-2 mbd a year that wouldn't make it the peak.

[mgibbons19]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'h')e key is permeability anisotropy in the reservoir, presence of fracturing and apparent mobility ratio mainly.

[Ming]

In my opinion (but I’m not an expert) Ghawar, being the biggest field and being in dry land, has indeed the possibility of allowing a better final recovery percentage than any other oil field in the world.
And with PO and ever rising prices, I have no great doubts that 75% (or even better) will be achieved before the field is truly abandoned…

The big question is if the present producing rates can be maintained for long…

[EnviroEngr]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'I') tried to do this the other day, and EnviroEngineer is looking for some more data from ASPO for us.
<snip> Also, ASPO's estimates are not necessarily infallible either. Maybe the field is bigger and better than they thought in 1975. A little error on the fill factor or n/g ratio, as we have seen, makes a big difference to the reserves calculation. But, now that we have a tool, if anybody can find a better source of data it would be wonderful to get it, so we can estimate the life of this old geezer.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve been wondering of late if mayhaps rockdoc123 or spartacus have credible data for us??

[Shadizar]

This is a quote from an article on CNBC tonight!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Saudis and the rest of OPEC aren't exempt from this process. About 50% of Saudi Arabia's current reserves are locked up in just eight fields, including the giant Ghawar field -- the world's largest with remaining reserves, by official Saudi oil industry count, of 70 billion barrels. Ghawar, however, is quite old and while reserves remain huge, production rates are declining as it gets harder and harder to extract the oil. The Saudi state oil company Aramco says that production from Ghawar and other old fields is falling by 800,000 barrels a day. (Outside critics say the depletion rate is much higher.)

[UIUCstudent01]

He's a peaker. Maybe he has just caught onto the idea without having a source? (Hopefully?)

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Saudi state oil company Aramco says that production from Ghawar and other old fields is falling by 800,000 barrels a day.

[Armageddon]

In two years from now, we have a much better picture of things. Im very sure we are at peak right now. We may actually be a little bit past peak.

[mekrob]

Dreamtwister, please read the entire sentence. It said Ghawar and other OLD fields, in other words, most of their production. Still, 10% decline in a year is pretty significant if true, though I doubt it.

[thor]

[quote="armegeddon"]In two years from now, we have a much better picture of things. Im very sure we are at peak right now. We may actually be a little bit past peak.[/quote]


Agreed. By 2010 I'll expect to see a clear manifestation of a production plateau or a peak.

[Specop_007]

Well you guys are a cheery bunch arent ya........

[PWALPOCO]

Well here we are its 2006 , near the front end of the time span that the various experts , organisations , government bodies and so on were stating the "peak" would happen , and there seems to be a general acceptance beginning to show up in places that the peak is at hand.

Certainly some of the recent graphs over at TOD seemed to indicate that the oil output levelled out several months back and weve been on the plateau since , but couple that with graphs showing the total output history theres not enough current information to make it clear we peaked. There are other periods in time there where you would have thought the peak had been reached only for the output to start its climb again.

The Ghawar area definitely is the key, and with the Kuwaiti reserve revelation the other week , it would seem likely Ghawar is going to take a tumble sooner rather than later.

Paul

[Starvid]

We have no way of knowing if Ghawar is near peak or very far from peak. Everything is just speculation.

I would be very carefull saying anything sure about Ghawar except if I were a close friend al-Naimi or some such guy.

And I guess you people aren't.

[Novus]

Ghawar had its natural Peak in 1981 when it produced 5.4 MBPD. Production was scaled back to only 1 MBPD in 1986. Similar declines could happen again.

[Shadizar]

I think we'll have a much clearer picture in a few years too. I'm certainly not a Saudi Aramco official, thats why I rely on various media to pass on whatever they say.
CNBC is about as mainstream a business news outlet as it gets in the U.S..
If this author did his research correctly, and I can't say if he did, then the following quote is what worries me.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Saudi state oil company Aramco says that production from Ghawar and other old fields is falling by 800,000 barrels a day. (Outside critics say the depletion rate is much higher

[Eli]

Well not knowing what exactly is going on at Ghawar is something the world can afford.

The largest oil field in the world operated by the country that produces the most oil in the world and is absolutely critical to maintaining the world oil market and, know one knows for sure what is going on with production their?

We all know if this thing is decline it is all over and we are way past peak.

Considering its age, I think lots of speculation about its continued production capabilities is exactly what we should be doing. And after reading what Matt Simmons has to say I think they are most likely in decline not to mention the fact that all the oil the spare capacity they brought on during the oil crisis was sour crude, shows they do not have the spare light sweet the world needs right now.

One of the best points made in the article was about why the Saudis would want to keep control of the oil market as the sole swing producer. So it is in the Saudi's and the world oil market interest for the Saudis to appear in control for as long as possible. The US government would also not want that info to become common knowledge. If it became widely known the Saudi’s were in decline at Ghawar it would give countries opposed to the US, like Iran and Venezuela huge control over oil and the markets.

Subtle changes in their oil policy would have massive effects on the market. Right now they could destabilize the market but not with out damaging themselves, if Ghawar is in decline they could topple the market just by lifting their little finger.

[Novus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shadizar', 'I') think we'll have a much clearer picture in a few years too.

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shadizar', 'I') think we'll have a much clearer picture in a few years too.

[mekrob]

Don't you mean 'Baghdad Bob'? The guy that kept lying about the positions of US forces? Chemical Ali was a different guy.

What would this guy's name be? Washington Wanker?